England have the capabilities to challenge the elite in Qatar but they will need to release the shackles in order to reach the heights they have achieved in the past two tournaments.
Reaching a semi-final at the last World Cup and the final at the European Championship in 2021 gives the impression that England are contenders this time around but I fear their cautious mentality could cost them the chance to replicate those achievements. Gareth Southgate can point to his impressive track record in tournament football to justify his methods and processes but I do not think they get the best out of England’s most creative and threatening players. Southgate needs to create a team fans are inspired and invigorated by.
For Southgate the challenge will be to trust his whole squad because anything can happen. They need belief in what they can do and not to fall back into extreme negativity in their style of play. This can result in England losing sight of what they can do to opponents and what the players are capable of and instead focusing on how to stop the opposition.
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A team can fall into that trap of always adapting for the other team, which means they lose advantages going forward because the attack-minded players are forced to think defensively and do things that are not in their natural game. With Southgate the football is more like chess and the game has moved on. Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp have shown what is possible with their fluid formations and liberal coaching, something Southgate is yet to take on board.
With players of the calibre of Harry Kane, Phil Foden and Raheem Sterling available to Southgate, he should be offering them the freedom to play as they do in the Premier League. They are phenomenal talents with incredible records in club football but sometimes I feel they are limited in their output for England.
Players can find it boring when not allowed to express themselves in the way they desire on the pitch. In the last England game I watched Sterling was defending in and around the 18-yard box so when they wanted to counter they had nine or 10 players behind the ball and it was really difficult to get numbers up the pitch. England need to leave Kane or Sterling higher up and be confident in their ability, believing they will win the ball back in transition and hit opponents quickly and with quality.
In tournament football teams cannot rely on constantly sitting back and trying to not concede, especially in the knockout phases; they have to go for it and take charge by establishing themselves in a game and give the opposition something to think about – and that is my concern.
Southgate has been fortunate to have multiple players who can play in a variety of positions, allowing the manager to tinker tactically with the team because they are adept at adjusting. England have a lot of attacking and creative players in the forward areas as well as wing-backs to offer incredible options to Southgate but one area they are short in international experience is centre-forward. Finding the right backup for Kane in the No 9 position is the big question for the manager because if something happens to the Tottenham forward they could be in trouble.
Leading up to the tournament, England’s form has underwhelmed and they have struggled in front of goal. Losing 4-0 at home to Hungary showed there are problems within the setup. No offence to Hungary but a team such as England should not be dismantled in such a manner and if they repeat that performance in Qatar they will probably be eliminated.
As with any major tournament there will be question marks over the fitness of individuals in the lead-up. Kyle Walker looks to have won his race against time to be fit, but Reece James was not as fortunate. This is destabilising for Southgate to potentially lose two top-class players in an important position for England, leaving him having to think of how to set up with and without them.
A lot of nations will see England as potential favourites looking at squad depth. Tournament football is different but it is all about showing up for multiple games and picking the right combination depending on the opposition and getting that balance right throughout, while hoping to not suffer injuries along the way to key players or leaders – that can hinder momentum.
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On paper, England should be confident of winning their group matches against Iran, USA and Wales. The most important thing is they get off to a good start in the first group game, against Iran. It is massive for momentum and confidence to start with a win to show what they are doing collectively is working. Not looking too far ahead is important.
England need to focus on each of their group games individually. There will be plenty of tweaking going on between the fixtures. The nation will want to see England be ruthless and show they can dominate against teams much lower ranked in this group rather than, say, scrape a 1-0 win over Iran in their opener. They need to lay down a marker.
England cannot underestimate teams such as Wales, who have plenty of passion and have qualified for the first time in 64 years. Tournament football can elevate teams, take them to a new level of competition, and England need to be wary of that.
It would be a huge boost to go into the knockout stages off the back of a resounding victory over a rival such as Wales. For those two teams it will be the biggest game of the group. There is going to be so much passion from both sides, these players will know each other really well, with many playing in England. We expect a fierce, competitive match with all the elements of a derby game. There is that sense there is added pride when it comes to these rivalries. It is natural for both to want to get one over on the other. England will have to be at their best and neither side will require extra motivation to get up for it.
Using that momentum could be key in the later stages. I believe that England can go all the way if the players are given freedom on the pitch and, if they are not, I fear a quarter-final is the best they can hope for.