alt=Dennis RomboyIndependent challenger Evan McMullin and Republican Sen. Mike Lee will be up and down the state over the next few days in a final drive for votes in the heated race for the U.S. Senate in Utah.
McMullin campaigned in Cache, Weber and Davis counties over the weekend and will head to St. George on Monday. Lee stumped in St. George and Washington City on Saturday before returning to the Wasatch Front. Both candidates will be out and about in Salt Lake and Utah counties on Election Day.
Though the onslaught of television ads, mailers and social media posts might indicate otherwise, the Senate race isn’t the only one on the ballot in Utah. All four Republican congressmen are up for reelection against Democratic challengers, and in all but one case, third-party challengers as well. Some local races could change the political landscape, especially in Salt Lake County.
The contest between Lee and McMullin has been among the most watched Senate races in the country as Republicans push to wrest control of the chamber from Democrats. In addition to being unique because the Utah Democratic Party did not advance a candidate but threw its support behind an independent, it is the most competitive statewide matchup in decades in Utah.
Still, longtime political handicappers like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball say the Utah seat will likely remain Republican. Control of the Senate will depend on the outcomes in states rated as toss-ups, including Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
While Democrats picked up steam after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and amid concerns over democracy and gun violence, Republicans have gained momentum in the past couple weeks campaigning on the economy and inflation.
In a Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll last month Utah voters identified the economy as the most important issue to them when choosing a Senate or House candidate.
The party of the president typically does poorly in midterm elections, and that appears to be holding true in 2022.
Control of the House will come down to a couple of dozen races across the country. The GOP could take the House if it nets just five seats in those competitive districts.
Utah’s U.S. House seats don’t factor into the mix because all four districts are safe Republican strongholds. Neither Democratic nor third-party candidates have mounted significant challenges to the state’s four GOP congressmen.
Reps. Chris Stewart, John Curtis, Blake Moore and Burgess Owens figure to return to Washington in what’s shaping up to be a Republican majority in the House.
Big spenders in Utah Senate race
Meantime, McMullin and Lee are locked into what is likely the most expensive political race ever in Utah, totaling at least $31 million. Lee has spent $9.7 million trying to keep his seat, while McMullin has spent $5.8 million trying to take it away, according to opensecrets.com, a website that tracks election spending based on Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports.
Super PACs have played a supersized role in the race, combining to shell out more than $15.6 million on mostly negative ads targeting the two candidates.
Like Republicans across the country, Lee has focused his message of late on inflation, which he attributed to failures of the Biden administration. He also has painted McMullin as a Democrat who stands in the way of the GOP taking the Senate and who would fall in line with President Joe Biden.
McMullin has repeatedly said he would not caucus with either party, making Utah a player in the Senate and his vote valuable on important legislation. He has tried to label Lee as a “constitutional con man” and a threat to democracy because of his role in former President Donald Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election.
Partisanship versus independence
The race, in large part, is a battle for moderate and unaffiliated voters. Lee has the ability to lean on partisan identity in a way that McMullin doesn’t as an independent.
“McMullin is walking this fine line where he needs to convince Utah voters that Lee is not serving their interests and that he will serve their interests even though he’s not running as a Republican,” Chris Karpowitz, co-director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, told the Deseret News last month.
“He has to criticize Lee, keep Democrats in his camp and reach out to independents and some Republicans to support his campaign. That’s just a harder task to do than relying on your partisan label, which is what Lee is doing. That doesn’t mean McMullin doesn’t have a chance. He does.”
The fact that the race might be close reflects some dissatisfaction with aspects of Lee’s work in Washington and his behavior on the Trump campaign trail, Karpowitz said, referring to Lee comparing Donald Trump to beloved Book of Mormon leader Captain Moroni during the 2020 election.
Lee’s remark “deeply offended” and was a “step too far” for many members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, Karpowitz said.
“I do think he is vulnerable. But I think he also has some important advantages that you can’t forget. Just because he’s made some missteps and he is vulnerable doesn’t mean he isn’t more likely than not to win this race,” he said.
Utah legislative races
Elsewhere in Utah, a longtime Republican representative is trying to keep his political career alive via a write-in campaign, and the first Navajo woman is running for the Utah Legislature. Also, Salt Lake County will see some new representation during next year’s legislative session.
Senate District 9: Incumbent Sen. Derek Kitchen was ousted in a tight primary race by Jen Plumb, a doctor at Primary Children’s Hospital who for years has run Utah Naloxone, an advocacy organization that distributes and provides training for opioid reversal drugs.
Plumb will face off against Vance Hansen, a write-in candidate who ran for the Salt Lake County Council in 2021.
Senate District 13: Gene Davis, a Democrat who represented parts of Salt Lake County for over 30 years, lost his reelection to political newcomer Nate Blouin this spring. Davis has since resigned from the legislature, after he was suspended from party events due to sexual harassment allegations from a former intern.
A renewable energy advocate, Blouin now faces off against Republican Roger Stout.
Senate District 14: The district encompassing much of Millcreek, Holladay and Murray will have a new senator this year, although they might not be new to the Utah Legislature itself.
That’s because Rep. Stephanie Pitcher, D-Salt Lake City, vacated her seat in the House to try her luck in the Senate.
A deputy district attorney and lawmaker since 2019, Pitcher will face off against Republican Dan Sorensen, who owns Granite Insurance Agency in Murray, and United Utah candidate Dennis Roach.
House District 32: With Rep. Suzanne Harrison, D-Sandy, deciding to run for Salt Lake County Council, a number of candidates stepped in hoping to fill the void.
Three remain: Sahara Hayes, a Millcreek Community Council member and the Democratic nominee; Brittany Karzen, a Republican who currently works for the Salt Lake County Sheriff’s Office; and United Utah candidate Adam Bean.
Salt Lake County races to watch
At the local level, there are a few races this year that could shake things up for Salt Lake County.
Salt Lake County Council: Rep. Suzanne Harrison, D-Sandy, is challenging council member Richard Snelgrove for one of the county’s two at-large seats.
Snelgrove, a Republican, was reelected to the at-large seat in 2016 and is one of six GOP members on the county’s nine-person council.
His colleague, three-term council member Steve Debry, was ousted in the primary by Riverton City Council member Sheldon Stewart. Stewart does not face an opponent this November.
Salt Lake County Clerk: After decades in the chair, Sherrie Swensen is stepping down.
She’s tapped Chief Deputy Clerk Lannie Chapman as her replacement — however, Chapman faces a challenge in Republican Goud Maragani.
Maragani has faced recent criticism for old social media posts that claim Democrats stole the 2020 election and has expressed skepticism over mail-in ballots — a system that the Salt Lake County Clerk’s Office has endorsed for nearly a decade.
“In Goud’s opinion, the 2020 election was not stolen. Trump lost and Biden won,” reads Maragani’s website. “Goud has reviewed how the Salt Lake County Clerk’s Office ran the 2020 election. The review did not show fraud, but it did find concerning shortcomings.”
Davis County drama
Don’t expect many surprises in Davis County this year, home to Republican strongholds including districts held by Senate President Stuart Adams and House Speaker Brad Wilson.
However, the race for House District 16 could be interesting.
Rep. Steve Handy has represented the Layton area for over 10 years, but in March during caucus night, he fell shy of the votes needed to qualify for the primary.
Instead, Republicans gave the nod to Trevor Lee, a staunch conservative with a background in business management and finance — Handy is now attempting a write-in campaign, a daunting challenge that has only succeeded once in the Utah Legislature.
Lee’s hardline views have come to light recently, stemming from an anonymous Twitter account where he called transgender people a derogatory term and said Brigham Young University was a “progressive cesspool” that “needs to be cleansed,” according to reporting by The Salt Lake Tribune.
In response to news reports about some of Lee’s comments, Sen. Todd Weiler, R-Woods Cross, highlighted a possible write-in campaign from Handy in April. Handy also won a recent endorsement from former Utah Gov. Gary Herbert.
The first Navajo woman to run for Utah Legislature
Phil Lyman, R-Blanding, has a Democratic challenger this year in Davina Smith, the first Navajo woman to run for the Utah House.
The race is not without controversy, as Lyman filed a formal complaint with Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson’s office in March, alleging Smith does not actually live in the district.
Originally from Monument Valley, Smith looks to become the latest Native American politician to win voter approval in southeast Utah, following Ken Maryboy, who won his bid for San Juan County Commission in 2018. The election marked a historic shift, giving Navajo Democrats a majority on the traditionally white, Republican commission.
Although Native Americans make up the majority of San Juan County’s population, public land issues often galvanize voters. Lyman, himself a former county commissioner, was elected to the House in 2019 several years after his role in a controversial protest in Recapture Canyon, home to Native American cliff dwellings. A jury found Lyman guilty of trespassing. He was later pardoned by Trump.
Contributing: Kyle Dunphey