California's 15th Congressional District election, 2024

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California's 15th Congressional District
	Top-two primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: December 8, 2023
	Primary: March 5, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.; Voting in California
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic; Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	California's 15th Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th • 29th • 30th • 31st • 32nd • 33rd • 34th • 35th • 36th • 37th • 38th • 39th • 40th • 41st • 42nd • 43rd • 44th • 45th • 46th • 47th • 48th • 49th • 50th • 51st • 52nd ; California elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

California 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Congressional special elections • State Senate • State Assembly • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Recalls • How to run for office

All U.S. House districts, including the 15th Congressional District of California, are holding elections in 2024. The general election is November 5, 2024. The primary was March 5, 2024. The filing deadline was December 8, 2023.

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House in 2025.

All 435 seats are up for election. Republicans have a 217 to 213 majority with five vacancies.^[1] As of May 2024, 44 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 77.7% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 20.4%.^[2]

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

California's 15th Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary)

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 15

Incumbent Kevin Mullin and Anna Cheng Kramer are running in the general election for U.S. House California District 15 on November 5, 2024.

		Candidate
		Kevin Mullin (D)
		Anna Cheng Kramer (R)

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined.
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 15

Incumbent Kevin Mullin and Anna Cheng Kramer advanced from the primary for U.S. House California District 15 on March 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Kevin Mullin (D)	75.3	109,172
✔	Anna Cheng Kramer (R)	24.7	35,868

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 145,040
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Timothy Wong (D)

Candidate profiles

There are currently no candidate profiles created for this race. Candidate profiles will appear here as they are created. Encourage the candidates in this race to complete Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey so that their profile will appear here. You can ask candidates in this race to fill out the survey by clicking their names below:

Voting information

See also: Voting in California

Ballotpedia will publish the dates and deadlines related to this election as they are made available.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race has completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Ballotpedia is seeking 100 percent participation so voters can learn more about all the candidates on their ballots.

You can ask candidates in this race to fill out the survey by clicking their names below:

Campaign finance

Name

Party

Receipts*

Disbursements**

Cash on hand

Date

Kevin Mullin

Democratic Party

$540,793

$487,757

$75,570

As of March 31, 2024

Anna Cheng Kramer

Republican Party

$51,181

$24,172

$27,009

As of March 31, 2024

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[3]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[4]^[5]^[6]

Race ratings: California's 15th Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	May 14, 2024	May 7, 2024	April 30, 2024	April 23, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in California in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
California	U.S. House	All candidates	40-60	$1,740.00^[7]	12/8/2023	Source

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Competitiveness
Presidential elections

State party control

Below is the district map in place for this election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in California.

California U.S. House primary competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested top-two primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	52	52	7	241	52	42	80.8%	45	100.0%
2022	52	52	5	272	52	52	100.0%	47	100.0%
2020	53	53	4	262	53	47	88.7%	32	65.3%
2018	53	53	2	244	53	41	77.4%	39	76.5%
2016	53	53	4	202	53	40	75.5%	36	73.5%
2014	53	53	6	209	53	38	71.7%	32	68.1%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in California in 2024. Information below was calculated on 1/16/2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Two-hundred forty-one candidates filed to run for California's 52 U.S. House districts in 2024, including 125 Democrats, 88 Republicans, and 28 independent or minor party candidates. That’s 4.63 candidates per district. In 2022, the first election after the number of congressional districts in California decreased from 53 to 52 following the 2020 census, 5.2 candidates filed per district. In 2020, when the state still had 53 Congressional districts, 4.94 candidates filed per district. In 2018, 4.6 candidates filed.

The 241 candidates who ran in California in 2024 were the fewest total number of candidates since 2016, when 202 candidates ran. Forty-five incumbents—34 Democrats and 11 Republicans—ran for re-election. That was fewer than in 2022, when 47 incumbents ran. Six districts were open, one more than in 2022, and the most since 2014, when six districts were also open.

Incumbents Barbara Lee (D-12th), Adam Schiff (D-30th), and Katie Porter (D-47th) ran for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Incumbent Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) didn't run for re-election. Incumbents Grace Napolitano (D-31st), Tony Cárdenas (D-29th), and Anna Eshoo (D-16th) retired from public office. One incumbent—Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-20th)—left Congress before the end of his term. A special election was held to fill his seat before the general election.

Fifteen candidates—12 Democrats, two Republicans, and one nonpartisan—ran in the open 30th district, the most candidates running for a seat in 2024.

Forty-two primaries were contested, the fewest since 2018, when 41 were contested. All 52 primaries were contested in 2022, and 47 were in 2020. In California, which uses a top-two primary system, a primary is contested if more than two candidates file to run.

Incumbents ran in 35 of the 42 contested primaries. That’s lower than 2022, when 47 incumbents ran in contested primaries, but higher than every other year since 2014. In 2020, 32 incumbents faced contested primaries. Thirty-nine incumbents did so in 2018, 36 in 2016, and 32 in 2014.

Democratic candidates ran in every district. Republican candidates ran in every district except one—the 37th. Two Democrats, including incumbent Sydney Kamlage-Dove, one nonpartisan candidate, and one Peace and Freedom Party member ran in that district.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is . This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were the national average. This made California's 15th the district nationally.^[8]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in California's 15th based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
77.7%	20.4%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[9] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
76.5	23.2	D+53.3

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in California, 2020

California presidential election results (1900-2020)

15 Democratic wins
15 Republican wins
1 other win

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	R	R	R	P^[10]	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of California's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from California
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	2	40	42
Republican	0	11	11
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	1	1
Total	2	52	54

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in California's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in California, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Gavin Newsom
Lieutenant Governor	Eleni Kounalakis
Secretary of State	Shirley Weber
Attorney General	Rob Bonta

State legislature

California State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	32
	Republican Party	8
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		40

California State Assembly

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	62
	Republican Party	18
	Independent	1
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		80

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until 2024.

California Party Control: 1992-2024
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Senate	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Assembly	D	D	D	S	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

District history

The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.