A sub for redditors interested in following and predicting the Oscar race throughout the year.
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Bold means the film received at least 1 Oscar nomination (47)
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Bold and italic means the film was only nominated in the Best International Feature category (17)
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Coin means the film won Best International Feature (7)
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Trophy means the film won Best Picture (1)
| Year | Palme d'Or | Grand Prix | Jury Prize |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | Chronicle of the Years of Fire | The Enigma of Kaspar Hauser | |
| 1976 | Taxi Driver | Cría Cuervos 🪢 The Marquise of O | |
| 1977 | Padre Padrone | ||
| 1978 | The Tree of Wooden Clogs | Bye Bye Monkey 🪢 The Shout | |
| 1979 | Apocalypse Now 🪢 🪙The Tin Drum🪙 | Siberiade | |
| 1980 | All That Jazz 🪢 Kagemusha | My American Uncle | The Constant Factor |
| 1981 | Man of Iron | Light Years Away | |
| 1982 | Missing 🪢 Yol | The Night of the Shooting Stars | |
| 1983 | The Ballad of Narayama | Monty Python's The Meaning of Life | Kharij |
| 1984 | Paris, Texas | Diary for My Children | |
| 1985 | When Father Was Away on Business | Birdy | Colonel Redl |
| 1986 | The Mission | The Sacrifice | Thérèse |
| 1987 | Under the Sun of Satan | Repentance | Shinran: Path to Purity 🪢 Yeelen |
| 1988 | Pelle the Conqueror | A World Apart | A Short Film About Killing |
| 1989 | Sex, Lies, and Videotape | ��Cinema Paradiso🪙 🪢 Too Beautiful for You | Jesus of Montreal |
| 1990 | Wild at Heart | The Sting of Death 🪢 Tilaï | Hidden Agenda |
| 1991 | Barton Fink | La Belle Noiseuse | Europa 🪢 Out of Life |
| 1992 | The Best Intentions | The Stolen Children | Dream of Light 🪢 An Independent Life |
| 1993 | Farewell My Concubine 🪢 The Piano | Faraway, So Close! | The Puppetmaster 🪢 Raining Stones |
| 1994 | Pulp Fiction | ��Burnt by the Sun🪙 🪢 To Live | La Reine Margot |
| 1995 | Underground | Ulysses' Gaze | Don't Forget You're Going to Die 🪢 Carrington |
| 1996 | Secrets & Lies | Breaking the Waves | Crash |
| 1997 | The Eel 🪢 Taste of Cherry | The Sweet Hereafter | Western |
| 1998 | Eternity and a Day | ��Life Is Beautiful🪙 | Class Trip |
| 1999 | Rosetta | Humanité | The Letter |
| 2000 | Dancer in the Dark | Devils on the Doorstep | Blackboards 🪢 Songs from the Second Floor |
| 2001 | The Son's Room | The Piano Teacher | |
| 2002 | The Pianist | The Man Without a Past | Divine Intervention |
| 2003 | Elephant | Distant | At Five in the Afternoon |
| 2004 | Fahrenheit 9/11 | Oldboy | The Ladykillers 🪢 Tropical Malady |
| 2005 | The Child | Broken Flowers | Shanghai Dreams |
| 2006 | The Wind That Shakes the Barley | Flanders | Red Road |
| 2007 | 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days | The Mourning Forest | Persepolis 🪢 Silent Light |
| 2008 | The Class | Gomorrah | Il divo |
| 2009 | The White Ribbon | A Prophet | Fish Tank 🪢 Thirst |
| 2010 | Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives | Of Gods and Men | A Screaming Man |
| 2011 | The Tree of Life | The Kid with a Bike 🪢 Once Upon a Time in Anatolia | Polisse |
| 2012 | ��Amour🪙 | Reality | The Angels' Share |
| 2013 | Blue Is the Warmest Colour | Inside Llewyn Davis | Like Father, Like Son |
| 2014 | Winter Sleep | The Wonders | Goodbye to Language 🪢 Mommy |
| 2015 | Dheepan | ��Son of Saul🪙 | The Lobster |
| 2016 | I, Daniel Blake | It's Only the End of the World | American Honey |
| 2017 | The Square | BPM (Beats per Minute) | Loveless |
| 2018 | Shoplifters | BlacKkKlansman | Capernaum |
| 2019 | 🪙🏆Parasite🏆🪙 | Atlantics | Bacurau 🪢 Les Misérables |
| 2021 | Titane | Compartment No. 6 🪢 A Hero | Ahed's Knee 🪢 Memoria |
| 2022 | Triangle of Sadness | Stars at Noon 🪢 Close | The Eight Mountains 🪢 EO |
| 2023 | Anatomy of a Fall | The Zone of Interest | Fallen Leaves |
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Bold means the actor received an Oscar nomination (23)
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Bold and italic means the actor was nominated in a non-acting category (1)
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Trophy means the actor won the Oscar (6)
| Year | Best Actor | Best Actress |
|---|---|---|
| 1975 | Vittorio Gassman – Scent of a Woman | Valérie Perrine – Lenny |
| 1976 | José Luis Gómez – Pascual Duarte | Dominique Sanda – The Inheritance 🪢 Mari Törőcsik – Mrs. Dery Where Are You? |
| 1977 | Fernando Rey – Elisa, My Life | Shelley Duvall – 3 Women 🪢 Monique Mercure – J.A. Martin Photographer |
| 1978 | ��Jon Voight – Coming Home🏆 | Jill Clayburgh – An Unmarried Woman 🪢 Isabelle Huppert – Violette Nozière |
| 1979 | Jack Lemmon – The China Syndrome 🪢 Stefano Madia – Dear Father | ��Sally Field – Norma Rae🏆 🪢 Eva Mattes – Woyzeck |
| 1980 | Michel Piccoli – A Leap in the Dark 🪢 Jack Thompson – Breaker Morant | Anouk Aimée – A Leap in the Dark 🪢 Milena Dravić – Special Treatment 🪢 Carla Gravina – La terrazza |
| 1981 | Ugo Tognazzi – Tragedy of a Ridiculous Man 🪢 Ian Holm – Chariots of Fire | Isabelle Adjani – Possession 🪢 Qaurtet 🪢 Elena Solovey – Faktas |
| 1982 | Jack Lemmon – Missing | Jadwiga Jankowska-Cieślak – Another Way |
| 1983 | Gian Maria Volonté – The Death of Mario Ricci | Hanna Schygulla – The Story of Piera |
| 1984 | Alfredo Landa 🪢 Francisco Rabal – The Holy Innocents | Helen Mirren – Cal |
| 1985 | ��William Hurt – Kiss of the Spider Woman🏆 | Norma Aleandro – The Official Story 🪢 Cher – Mask |
| 1986 | Michel Blanc – Ménage 🪢 Bob Hoskins – Mona Lisa | Barbara Sukowa – Rosa Luxemburg |
| 1987 | Marcello Mastroianni – Dark Eyes | Barbara Hershey – Shy People |
| 1988 | Forest Whitaker – Bird | Barbara Hershey 🪢 Jodhi May 🪢 Linda Mvusi – A World Apart |
| 1989 | James Spader – Sex, Lies, and Videotape | Meryl Streep – A Cry in the Dark |
| 1990 | Gérard Depardieu – Cyrano de Bergerac | Krystyna Janda – Interrogation |
| 1991 | John Turturro – Barton Fink 🪢 Samuel L. Jackson – Jungle Fever | Irène Jacob – The Double Life of Veronique |
| 1992 | Tim Robbins – The Player | Pernilla August – The Best Intentions |
| 1993 | David Thewlis – Naked | ��Holly Hunter – The Piano🏆 |
| 1994 | Ge You – To Live | Virna Lisi – La Reine Margot |
| 1995 | Jonathan Pryce – Carrington | Helen Mirren – The Madness of King George |
| 1996 | Daniel Auteuil 🪢 Pascal Duquenne – The Eighth Day | Brenda Blethyn – Secrets & Lies |
| 1997 | Sean Penn – She's So Lovely | Kathy Burke – Nil by Mouth |
| 1998 | Peter Mullan – My Name Is Joe | Élodie Bouchez 🪢 Natacha Régnier – The Dreamlife of Angels |
| 1999 | Emmanuel Schotté – Humanité | Séverine Caneele – Humanité 🪢 Émilie Dequenne – Rosetta |
| 2000 | Tony Leung Chiu-wai – In the Mood for Love | Björk – Dancer in the Dark |
| 2001 | Benoît Magimel – The Piano Teacher | Isabelle Huppert – The Piano Teacher |
| 2002 | Olivier Gourmet – The Son | Kati Outinen – The Man Without a Past |
| 2003 | Muzaffer Özdemir 🪢 Mehmet Emin Toprak – Distant | Marie-Josée Croze – The Barbarian Invasions |
| 2004 | Yūya Yagira – Nobody Knows | Maggie Cheung – Clean |
| 2005 | Tommy Lee Jones – The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada | Hanna Laslo – Free Zone |
| 2006 | Roschdy Zem 🪢 Bernard Blancan 🪢 Jamel Debbouze 🪢 Samy Naceri 🪢 Sami Bouajila – Days of Glory | Carmen Maura 🪢 Lola Dueñas 🪢 Blanca Portillo 🪢 Yohana Cobo 🪢 Chus Lampreave 🪢 Penélope Cruz – Volver |
| 2007 | Konstantin Lavronenko – The Banishment | Jeon Do-yeon – Secret Sunshine |
| 2008 | Benicio del Toro – Che | Sandra Corveloni – Linha de Passe |
| 2009 | ��Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds🏆 | Charlotte Gainsbourg – Antichrist |
| 2010 | Javier Bardem – Biutiful 🪢 Elio Germano – Our Life | Juliette Binoche – Certified Copy |
| 2011 | ��Jean Dujardin – The Artist🏆 | Kirsten Dunst – Melancholia |
| 2012 | Mads Mikkelsen – The Hunt | Cristina Flutur 🪢 Cosmina Stratan – Beyond the Hills |
| 2013 | Bruce Dern – Nebraska | Bérénice Bejo – The Past |
| 2014 | Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner | Julianne Moore – Maps to the Stars |
| 2015 | Vincent Lindon – The Measure of a Man | Emmanuelle Bercot – Mon Roi 🪢 Rooney Mara – Carol |
| 2016 | Shahab Hosseini – The Salesman | Jaclyn Jose – Ma' Rosa |
| 2017 | Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here | Diane Kruger – In the Fade |
| 2018 | Marcello Fonte – Dogman | Samal Yeslyamova – Ayka |
| 2019 | Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory | Emily Beecham – Little Joe |
| 2021 | Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram | Renate Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World |
| 2022 | Song Kang-ho – Broker | Zar Amir Ebrahimi – Holy Spider |
| 2023 | Kōji Yakusho – Perfect Days | Merve Dizdar – About Dry Grasses |
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Bold means the film received at least 1 Oscar nomination in a corresponding category (9)
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Bold and italic means only the film was nominated, but the awarded filmmaker wasn't (8)
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Coin means the film won Best International Feature (4)
| Year | Best Director | Best Screenplay |
|---|---|---|
| 1975 | Michel Brault – Orders 🪢 Costa-Gavras – Special Section | |
| 1976 | Ettore Scola – Down and Dirty | |
| 1977 | ||
| 1978 | Nagisa Ōshima – Empire of Passion | |
| 1979 | Terrence Malick – Days of Heaven | |
| 1980 | La Terrazza – Furio Scarpelli, Agenore Incrocci, Ettore Scola | |
| 1981 | ��Mephisto🪙 – István Szabó | |
| 1982 | Werner Herzog – Fitzcarraldo | Moonlighting – Jerzy Skolimowski |
| 1983 | Robert Bresson – L'Argent 🪢 Andrei Tarkovsky – Nostalgia | Voyage to Cythera – Thanassis Valtinos, Theo Angelopoulos, Tonino Guerra |
| 1984 | Bertrand Tavernier – A Sunday in the Country | |
| 1985 | André Téchiné – Rendez-vous | |
| 1986 | Martin Scorsese – After Hours | |
| 1987 | Wim Wenders – Wings of Desire | |
| 1988 | Fernando Solanas – Sur | |
| 1989 | Emir Kusturica – Time of the Gypsies | |
| 1990 | Pavel Lungin – Taxi Blues | |
| 1991 | Joel Coen – Barton Fink | |
| 1992 | Robert Altman – The Player | |
| 1993 | Mike Leigh – Naked | |
| 1994 | Nanni Moretti – Dear Diary | Dead Tired – Michel Blanc |
| 1995 | Mathieu Kassovitz – La Haine | |
| 1996 | Joel Coen – Fargo | A Self Made Hero – Jacques Audiard, Alain Le Henry |
| 1997 | Wong Kar-wai – Happy Together | The Ice Storm – James Schamus |
| 1998 | John Boorman – The General | Henry Fool – Hal Hartley |
| 1999 | Pedro Almodóvar – All About My Mother | Moloch – Yuri Arabov |
| 2000 | Edward Yang – Yi Yi | Nurse Betty – James Flamberg, John C. Richards |
| 2001 | Joel Coen – The Man Who Wasn't There 🪢 David Lynch – Mulholland Drive | No Man's Land – Danis Tanović |
| 2002 | Paul Thomas Anderson – Punch-Drunk Love 🪢 Im Kwon-taek – Painted Fire | Sweet Sixteen – Paul Laverty |
| 2003 | Gus Van Sant – Elephant | ��The Barbarian Invasions🪙 – Denys Arcand |
| 2004 | Tony Gatlif – Exils | Look at Me – Agnès Jaoui, Jean-Pierre Bacri |
| 2005 | Michael Haneke – Caché | The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada – Guillermo Arriaga |
| 2006 | Alejandro González Iñárritu – Babel | Volver – Pedro Almodóvar |
| 2007 | Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | The Edge of Heaven – Fatih Akin |
| 2008 | Nuri Bilge Ceylan – Three Monkeys | Lorna's Silence – Jean-Pierre, Luc Dardenne |
| 2009 | Brillante Mendoza – Butchered | Spring Fever – Mei Feng |
| 2010 | Mathieu Amalric – On Tour | Poetry – Lee Chang-dong |
| 2011 | Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive | Footnote – Joseph Cedar |
| 2012 | Carlos Reygadas – Post Tenebras Lux | Beyond the Hills – Cristian Mungiu, Tatiana Niculescu Bran |
| 2013 | Amat Escalante – Heli | A Touch of Sin – Jia Zhangke |
| 2014 | Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher | Leviathan – Andrey Zvyagintsev, Oleg Negin |
| 2015 | Hou Hsiao-hsien – The Assassin | Chronic – Michel Franco |
| 2016 | Olivier Assayas – Personal Shopper 🪢 Cristian Mungiu – Graduation | ��The Salesman🪙 – Asghar Farhadi |
| 2017 | Sofia Coppola – The Beguiled | The Killing of a Sacred Deer – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou 🪢 You Were Never Really Here – Lynne Ramsay |
| 2018 | Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War | 3 Faces – Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar 🪢 Happy as Lazzaro – Alice Rohrwacher |
| 2019 | Jean-Pierre 🪢 Luc Dardenne – Young Ahmed | Portrait of a Lady on Fire – Céline Sciamma |
| 2021 | Leos Carax – Annette | ��Drive My Car🪙 – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe |
| 2022 | Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave | Boy from Heaven – Tarik Saleh |
| 2023 | Tran Anh Hung – The Pot-au-Feu | Monster – Yuji Sakamoto |
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Q&A
I know Cannes and the Oscars have very little overlap, but there has been an interesting trend for the past few years - ever since Cannes 2018, one of the films that won in one of the In Competition categories went on to be nominated for Director:
2018 - Cold War & BlackKkKlansman (former won Best Director at Cannes, latter won Grand Prix)
2019 - Parasite (won Palme d'Or)
2020 - Another Round (Cannes was of course cancelled that year due to Covid, but it was in the Official Selection)
2021 - Drive My Car (won Best Screenplay at Cannes)
2022 - Triangle of Sadness (won Palme D'Or)
Right now the only winners of the In Competition branch that I can see continuing this trend are Anatomy of a Fall and/or The Zone of Interest, and right now I'd lean heavily in Zone's favor due to it's stronger response and Jonathan Glazer's name (this being his first film in a decade also helps his chances). I can see Zone being this year's TÁR, a dark and cerebral psychological drama that enough (mostly european) Academy members would fall head-over-heels for. MAAAAAAAYYYBEEEE Wim Wenders for Perfect Days (Best Actor winner) if it's campaigned well enough and because Wim Wenders is also kind of a legend at this point and he's never been recognized by the Academy outside of a few documentaries that he's made, but I don't feel like checks distribution company The Match Factory is going to have the resources necessary to make that happen.
EDIT: Perfect Days US distribution is being done by Neon, not The Match Factory. That definitely helps it's chances, but I'm not sure Neon would want to make this film a priority this season.
I don’t see it for Director but I could see Anatomy of a Fall break into a pretty thin atm Original Screenplay category
I agree that Anatomy stands a chance in other categories. Maybe BOTH could break into Picture?
Neon is distributing Perfect Days.
I just learned about this before seeing your comment. This could change things for the film, actually, although I'm uncertain about how well they can juggle multiple campaigns in a given year.
Could be off in places, it's late.
Cannes Palme winners will forever be the superior choice to Best Picture winners
I know this is the r/oscarrace sub, but really, with rare exceptions, the Oscars just suck.
Of course, Cannes makes some mistakes, too. But I would suggest that if one were to also include a few other major international festivals, the results would balance out the occasional errors of each. (And OP, I'm not suggesting that you do this; you've done enough work here already. Thanks.)
It's disgusting because .... ?
Reddit formatting is very limited.
Great work as always, but this chart reminded me that Kirsten Dunst wasn't even nominated for Melancholia and I find this utterly offensive (not your fault obviously)