Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election

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In the run up to the next Polish parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 15 October 2023, to the day of the next election.

To be represented in parliament electoral committees which are registered as political parties must reach an electoral threshold of 5% and those registered as coalitions must reach 8%.[1]

Pollster bias[edit]

The following table displays the pollsters which have alleged funding and links to the political parties:

Pollster Alleged bias Source
Research Partner The company has strong ties to the Law and Justice party, and has consistently overestimated its support in past elections above the standard deviation of polling. [2][3]
CBOS The institute is under the supervision of the Prime Minister of Poland, and is partially funded from the state budget. As such, it has been accused of greatly underestimating parties belonging to the opposition at any given moment for about the past 20 years. [4][5]

Graphical summary[edit]

Poll results[edit]

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

2024[edit]

For events during the year, see 2024 in Poland.
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation Nonpartisan Local Government Activists There is One Poland Others Don't know Lead
Polish Coalition Poland 2050
United Surveys / WP.pl 19–21 Apr 1,000 32.1 32.6 12.1 8.6 7.6 7.0 0.5
IBRiS / "Rz" 19–20 Apr 1,071 31.4 28.9 13.5 8.8 8.2 3.7 5.7 2.5
Pollster / "SE.pl" 18–19 Apr 1,074 32.77 32.31 11.17 9.23 9.64 2.89 1.75 0.24 0.4
CBOS 8–11 Apr 1,000 23 35 10 5 14 2 11 12
Opinia24 8–9 Apr 1,000 26.4 33.8 11.8 6.6 8.5 4.5 2.0 0.6 5.8 7.4
Local elections 7 Apr 14,417,065 34.27 30.59 14.25 6.32 7.23 3.01 4.33 3.68
OGB 3–5 Apr 1,000 34.75 33.34 13.02 4.47 10.38 2.28 1.76 1.41
IBRiS / Onet 4 Apr 1,068 29.0 30.5 11.8 9.5 8.4 1.9 8.9 1.5
Opinia24 2-3 Apr – 29.1 36.0 14.7 8.3 10.4 1.5 6.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 22–23 Mar 1,067 30.0 31.9 10.7 9.5 8.6 9.3 1.9
CBOS 18–22 Mar 1,000 24 29 9 8 13 1 17 5
Pollster / "SE.pl" 16–17 Mar 1,072 32.02 30.81 13.57 9.19 9.88 2.79 1.34 0.40 1.21
Research Partner 8–11 Mar 1,088 29.1 30.2 9.0 8.5 8.0 2.4 12.8 1.1
Opinia24 6–7 Mar 1,000 24.6 32.8 14.2 9.3 10.1 2.3 1.3 0.7 4.7 8.2
CBOS 4–7 Mar 1,000 23 29 12 9 11 2 13 6
CBM Indicator / DoRzeczy.pl 1–6 Mar 1,001 27 32 15 10 10 6[a] 5
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb 1,000 30 29 13 6 12 3 2 1 4 1
United Surveys / WP.pl 23–25 Feb 1,000 28.2 32.6 15.2 8.5 9.1 1.1 5.3 4.4
IBRiS / "Rz" 23–24 Feb 1,071 30.1 32.6 14.7 8.7 7.6 6.3 2.5
CBOS 19–22 Feb 1,000 22 29 15 7 11 2 14 7
Pollster / TVP 15–16 Feb 1,034 30.85 31.17 17.07 8.20 8.06 1.74 2.23 0.68 0.32
IBSP / Stan Polityki 12–15 Feb 1,000 32.98 34.20 15.25 4.89 9.36 2.53 0.79 1.22
CBOS 12–15 Feb 1,000 24 29 11 8 11 2 15 5
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 1,081 30.1 29.8 13.6 9.3 6.8 1.6 1.1 7.7 0.3
Pollster / "SE.pl" 11 Feb 1,060 30.31 32.32 14.78 9.01 8.77 1.94 1.79 1.08 2.01
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–11 Feb 1,000 29.0 31.7 15.3 10.2 8.0 0.0 5.8 2.7
Opinia24 6–7 Feb 1,001 24.0 31.0 16.8 9.1 8.7 1.5 2.2 1.1 5.7 7.0
31 Jan President Andrzej Duda sends budget to the Constitutional Tribunal
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jan 1,000 28.3 28.2 18.9 9.6 7.6 1.0 6.4 0.1
CBOS 22–26 Jan 1,000 24 29 14 9 11 5 9 5
Research Partner 19–22 Jan 1,119 30.3 30.1 13.5 10.1 6.7 2.2 1.1 6.0 0.2
Pollster / "SE.pl" 13–14 Jan 1,048 32.78 31.69 16.79 7.85 7.89 1.28 1.50 0.22 1.09
United Surveys / "WP.pl" 12–14 Jan 1,000 28.4 27.5 16.9 10.4 6.8 1.5 8.5 0.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 12–13 Jan 1,067 33.9 30.2 16.9 9.3 6.3 0.5 2.9 3.7
CBOS 8–12 Jan 1,000 29 29 10 7 10 4 12 Tie
Opinia24 8–9 Jan 1,002 26.3 24.3 17.3 9.4 10.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 8.9 2.0
IBRiS / Onet 5–8 Jan 1,000 34.2 32.0 14.1 8.8 5.0 0.9 5.0 2.2
2023 parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct 21,596,674[6][b] 35.38 30.70 14.40 8.61 7.16 1.86 1.63 0.22 4.68

2023[edit]

For events during the year, see 2023 in Poland.
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation Nonpartisan Local Government Activists There is One Poland Others Don't know Lead
Polish Coalition Poland 2050
Pollster / SE.pl 17 Dec 1,033 33.15 31.28 16.95 8.37 6.73 1.46 1.74 0.32 1.87
United Surveys / WP.pl 15–17 Dec 1,000 33.0 28.4 19.1 8.7 7.7 0.8 2.3 4.6
CBOS 2–8 Dec 1,000 30 25 13 9 9 3 12 5
IPSOS / More in Common Polska 1–8 Dec 1,507 31 26 15 10 7 3 5 5
Opinia24 5–6 Dec 29.2 24.7 17.3 8.0 8.0 1.7 1.2 0.3 9.6 4.5
United Surveys / WP.pl 1–3 Dec 1,000 35.2 28.8 16.0 10.0 7.7 2.3 6.4
IBRiS / "Rz" 1–2 Dec 1,071 31.5 27.0 7.3 10.3 9.3 9.0 1.8 3.8 4.5
CBOS 20–24 Nov 821 29 24 13 8 8 5 13 5
United Surveys / WP.pl 17–19 Nov 1,000 31.3 26.7 14.4 10.4 9.1 2.2 5.9 4.6
Social Changes / wPolityce.pl 10–13 Nov 1,081 33 32 14 9 9 2 1 1
Pollster / SE.pl 7–8 Nov 1,014 35.34 30.77 16.68 6.90 7.01 1.36 1.75 0.19 4.57
United Surveys / WP.pl 3–5 Nov 1,000 33.2 30.4 16.1 8.5 6.0 0.3 5.5 2.8
IBRiS / "Rz" 3–5 Nov 1,071 32.6 29.2 7.8 7.6 9.1 7.0 1.1 5.6 3.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 20–22 Oct 1,000 32.8 29.9 18.7 5.4 6.5 3.5 3.2 2.9
Parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct 21,596,674[6][b] 35.38 30.70 14.40 8.61 7.16 1.86 1.63 0.22 4.68

Seat projection[edit]

231 seats are needed for a Sejm majority, while 276 seats are needed for a three-fifths Sejm supermajority to override presidential vetoes. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/Link Fieldwork
Period 		Sample Size United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation German Minority Majority KO+TD KO+L+TD
Polish Coalition Poland 2050
United Surveys / WP.pl 19-21 Apr 2024 1,000 173 176 53 32 25 0 Hung –2 32
OGB 3–5 Apr 2024 1,000 189 175 53 0 42 1 Hung –2 –2
IBRiS / Onet 4 Apr 2024 1,068 165 175 52 38 30 0 Hung –3 35
IBSP / Stan Polityki 11 Mar 2024 1,000 166 166 75 17 36 0 Hung 11 28
Research Partner 8–11 Mar 2024 1,088 180 170 42 35 33 0 Hung –18 17
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb 2024 1,000 176 157 63 12 52 0 Hung –10 2
Pollster / TVP 15–16 Feb 2024 1,034 169 156 80 26 29 0 Hung 6 32
IBSP / Stan Polityki 12–15 Feb 2024 1,000 178 173 69 0 39 1 Hung 12 12
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 2024 1,081 176 159 66 40 19 1 Hung –5 35
IBRiS / "Rz" 12–13 Jan 2024 1,000 177 155 78 34 16 0 Hung 3 37
IBRiS / Onet 5–8 Jan 2024 1,000 194 166 67 29 4 0 Hung 3 32
Parliamentary election[6] 15 Oct 2023 21,596,674 [6][b] 194 157 65 26 18 0 Hung –8 18

Senate Seat projection[edit]

51 seats are needed for a Senate majority, while 374 seats are needed for a two-thirds National Assembly (Senate + Sejm) supermajority to impeach the president. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/Link Fieldwork
Period 		Sample Size Senate Pact United Right Confederation Majority
Civic Coalition Polish Coalition Poland 2050 The Left SP Ind
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 2024 1,081 74 26 0 24
Parliamentary election[6] 15 Oct 2023 21,402,998 [6][c] 66 34 0 16

Government approval ratings[edit]

President Andrzej Duda[edit]

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling firm/Link Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't know/Neutral Net approval
8-18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,079 44 49 7 –5
22–23 Mar 2024 IBRiS / Onet – 39.7 51.4 8.9 –11.7
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,089 50 39 11 11
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 44 45 11 –1
23–24 Feb 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,100 40.9 50.6 8.5 –9.7
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 40 52 –12
11–21 Jan 2024 CBOS 1,015 46 42 4
11–21 Jan 2024 CBOS 1,015 43 49 8 –6

Prime Minister Donald Tusk[edit]

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling firm/Link Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't know/Neutral Net approval
22–23 Mar 2024 IBRiS / Onet – 39.2 51.4 9.3 –12.2
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,089 44 43 13 1
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 46 41 13 5
23–24 Feb 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,100 37.6 46.0 16.4 –8.4
Jan 30–5 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 43 47 10 –4
Jan 30–5 Feb 2024 Morning Consult 52 38 14

Government[edit]

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling firm/Link Sample size Approve Disapprove Neither Don't know Net approval Notes
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,089 37 38 22 3 –1 Tusk's government
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 41 34 22 3 7 Tusk's government
12–14 Jan 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,000 54.5 40.3 5.2 14.2 Tusk's government
12–13 Jan 2024 IBRIS / RZ 1,067 56.3 36.9 6.8 19.4 Tusk's government

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Sovereign Poland – 4
  2. ^ a b c Turnout: 74.38%
  3. ^ Turnout: 74.31%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Sejm of the Republic of Poland". www.sejm.gov.pl. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
  2. ^ "Test".
  3. ^ "Test".
  4. ^ https://niepewnesondaze.blogspot.com/
  5. ^ "Test".
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h "Wybory do Sejmu i Senatu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w 2023 r." wybory.gov.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2023-10-25.

External links[edit]

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