Monthly Outlook

Initially it will be changeable and chilly, followed by a temporary warmer and drier period from the middle of next week. There is increasing uncertainty next weekend and into early May, with an overall cooler trend again.

Later it will remain rather changeable with temperatures close to or slightly above average.

In a still blocked North Atlantic flow, a deepening low-pressure will approach the UK from the south over the weekend and move into the North Sea on Sunday. This will lead to heavy rain at times, particularly in the southern half of the country, as well as quite windy conditions in places.

This heavier rain will move north-eastwards by Sunday, with some wintry precipitation still possible on the highest ground in Northern Scotland. This will be followed by cooler air and westerly winds on Sunday.

Early next week temperatures will start to recover across the UK due to a change in wind direction, as a new low-pressure system takes a southward track to the west of the country. Although there will still be some rain or showers around temperatures will rise to above average due to the air coming from the continent.

From midweek onwards a ridge of high pressure could extend from the Azores towards the UK and connect with another ridge of high pressure over Scandinavia. Increased high pressure influence will mean drier conditions for many, although still the potential for some wetter weather to hold on across the south and south-west for a time. It may turn a little cooler towards the weekend as north-easterly flows develop, but temperatures should still be higher than late.

By the weekend high pressure could migrate further west and bring chillier and more showery north-westerly conditions, but confidence is still low at present. There is also a chance that the calmer and drier conditions will continue over the weekend as the ridge of high pressure remains near the UK.

According to global weather models the high pressure may eventually shift well north-west of Scotland in the second week of May, meaning that a cooler and breezy north-westerly or northerly flow could establish or continue.

Temperatures will be around the seasonal average. Stronger winds and wetter conditions are expected, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the country. Northern Ireland and western parts may remain a little drier and calmer.

However, a temporary warming trend could set in later in the week, with a transient high-pressure ridge developing over western continental Europe, resulting in a southerly to south-westerly flow. This could be associated with quite changeable and windy conditions for much of the UK.

There is a chance that similar conditions will continue during the third week of May, with high pressure building up again far to the west or north-west of the UK, leading to cooler conditions overall.

Temperatures could then return to around average. Later this week and into the fourth week of May, there are signs of a more westerly to south-westerly flow establishing for longer, bringing wetter and windier conditions at times. This could be a chance for temperatures to possibly rise above average. As the week progresses the low pressure is likely to remain closer to the UK or towards Iceland, so the changeable conditions are likely to continue. Confidence is low at this stage.

We'll see which trend continues in late May and at the beginning of June and whether above average temperatures manage to win out.