... bank is judging that the only way they can try to pull down inflation is to carry on raising interest rates.

⋯⋯銀行判斷他們可以降低通膨的唯一方式就是繼續提高利率。

- We're gonna see rising rates... - ... rising interest rates that will make the cost of borrowing go up.

- 我們將看到上漲的利率⋯⋯ - ⋯⋯提高的利率將會讓借款成本提升。

It can send ripples across the whole economy.

這個可能引起整體經濟動盪。

It can sink consumer confidence, result in fewer jobs and lower wages, and cause stock prices to fall.

它可能會打擊消費者信心、導致職缺與工資降低且引起股價下跌。

If they go too far too fast, it can tip economies into recession.

如果它們惡化得太快，那就可能造成經濟衰退。

So, why do central banks raise interest rates?

那麼，中央銀行為什麼要提高利率？

(The Essentials)

（必要條件）

(For Sale) (Interest rates)

（出售中）（利率）

Let's start with the basics.

我們從基本的講起。

If you borrow money, you'll have to pay back a little extra to make it worthwhile for the lender.

如果你借了錢，就必須多還一點錢，讓這場交易對出借者划算。

Oh, I think we can make you this loan.

喔，我想我們可以借你這筆錢。

You have a good reputation.

你的風評很好。

We know you're reliable.

我們知道你是可靠的。

I'm glad you think so.

你這麼想我很高興。

This is the interest rate.

這就是利率。

So, if you are taking out a loan, you want the interest rate to be as low as possible so you don't have to pay that much back.

所以如，如果你要貸款，你會希望利率越低越好，這樣你就不用還那麼多錢。

On the flip side, if you want to save money, then a high interest rate means you can earn more on your savings.

相反的，如果你想要存錢，那高利率就表示你可以透過存款賺更多錢。

See it as a reward for leaving money in your account.

可以把它看成是你把錢存在帳戶裡的獎勵。

But the size of your reward depends on the circumstances.

但是獎勵的大小取決於當下情勢。

There's no single interest rate in the economy.

經濟體制中沒有單一的利率。

You've got thousands of banks setting their own commercial rates.

數以千計的銀行會制定各自的商業利率。

That's all influenced, though, by the interest rate that the central bank sets.

不過那些都受到中央銀行制定的利率影響。

A central bank is like a bank for banks; just like you and your savings account, banks also earn interest when they leave money with a central bank.

中央銀行基本上是給銀行用的銀行，就如同你的儲蓄帳戶之於你，銀行也透過在中央銀行存錢賺取利息。

Commercial banks have these things called "reserves", so that's a bit like their cash on hand.

商業銀行有所謂「存款準備金」，那像是它們的庫存現金。

Commercial banks lend those excess reserves to each other at an interest rate.

商業銀行會將多餘的準備金附加利率彼此借貸。

And they also can deposit their excess reserves at the central bank.

它們也可以將多餘的準備金儲蓄在中央銀行。

And when they do that, they can earn an interest rate.

而當它們這麼做時，就可以賺取利息。

Ordinary people can't access the interest rate on the excess reserves, but it still affects them.

一般人不能獲得多餘準備金的利率，但它仍然影響了他們。

And that's the idea.

而想法就是那樣的。

When central banks raise interest rates, they're trying to control inflation⏤how fast prices rise for everyone.

中央銀行提高利率時，就代表它們試著控制通膨，亦即民間物價上漲的速度。

They were £1.29, now they're £1.39, and that's in the space of four weeks.

它們本來是 1.29 英鎊，現在是 1.39 英鎊，而那是在四週之間發生的事。

Central banks like the Fed or the Bank of England or the European Central Bank are all trying to hit an inflation target of 2%.

諸如聯邦準備系統、英格蘭銀行或歐洲央行等中央銀行都試圖想要達到 2% 的通膨目標。

Interest rates are a really powerful tool that they have to do that.

利率是它們可以做到這件事非常強大的工具。

If inflation is seen as too high, that's when banks raise interest rates.

如果通膨被視為太高，那就是銀行提高利率的時候。

The change spreads through the financial system and slows down the rate of inflation.

這個變化會在金融系統當中擴散，減緩通膨率。

Here's how:

作法如下：

A rise in interest rates from a central bank means that a commercial bank will earn more on their reserves.

中央銀行利率的提升意味著商業銀行可以透過準備金賺取更多錢。

They might make more from keeping their money in a central bank than lending it out.

它們把錢繼續存在中央銀行所賺的錢可能會比借出款項賺更多。

So, if they do lend it out, they'll raise their interest rates to make it worth their while.

所以說，如果它們確實有把款項借出，它們就會提高利率，讓交易對他們更划算。

How that affects consumers depends on the economy.

而那會如何影響消費者，則取決於經濟狀況。

Take mortgages.

以貸款為例。

In places like Finland or Australia, lots of people have mortgages with variable interest rates.

在如同芬蘭及澳洲等地方，許多人都申請了有變動利率的貸款。

If you've got a variable-rate mortgage where the interest rate that you pay is linked to the central bank's interest rate,

如果你是申請變動利率貸款，所支付的利息跟著中央銀行的利率連動，

then higher interest rates mean that, essentially, immediately, the higher rate will translate into less cash to spend on other things.

那麼較高的利率基本上就表示在當下，高利率會等同於在其它物品上可花費的金錢變少。

Less spare cash means households will spend less, and less spending means businesses will be warier of raising prices.

較少可花費現金表示家家戶戶都會降低開銷，而低開銷就表示商家對於漲價會比較謹慎。

This should lower inflation.

這應該會降低通膨。

In other countries like America or Canada, a bigger share of mortgages are set at fixed rates.

在如美國與加拿大等國家，貸款設定在固定利率的比例較大。

People with fixed rates are protected against the direct effects of an interest rate rise, but will still feel an indirect impact.

有固定利率的人們有免於利率上升直接影響的保障，但還是會感受到間接影響。

Higher interest rates mean that mortgages will become more expensive.

較高的利率表示貸款會變得更昂貴。

If that is affecting all new buyers, then house prices will begin to fall.

如果那影響到所有的新買家，則物價就會開始下跌。

And that will make everyone who owns a home feel poorer and, therefore, they might spend less.

而那會讓每個擁有房產的人覺得自己更貧窮，進而可能減少花費。

Lower spending will translate into lower inflation.

花費降低就會轉換為較低的通膨。

And it's not just consumers who'll tighten the purse strings.

而勒緊褲帶不會只有消費者。

When interest rates rise, then businesses will find it more expensive to borrow and invest.

當利率提升，企業就會意識到借款和投資都比較貴。

That generally means less economic activity; it might mean fewer jobs are created.

那通常暗示了較少經濟活動，也可以意味較少職務被創造。

Fewer jobs and lower wages could mean less money for households, and consumer confidence might suffer, which also means less spending.

較少的工作機會以及較低的工資可能代表著家庭收入降低，而消費者的信心可能遭受打擊，意味著減少支出。

People are grappling with a decline in real wages, meaning their money buys less.

人們須盡力克服實際薪資降低的狀況，也就是金錢可以買到的東西變少。

When interest rates rise, that will tend to slow down spending, investment, and, generally, depress economic activity.

當利率提升，那一般會減緩開銷、投資速度，普遍地造成經濟活動衰退。

A rule that will make businesses more reluctant to raise their prices, and that will tend to pull back inflation.

這個規則會使得企業較不願意漲價，而那就會有使通膨緊縮的傾向。

It sounds straightforward, right?

聽起來很直接，對吧？

But the trick is judging how far to go.

但它的訣竅在於判斷要做到什麼程度。

In 1981, the Federal Reserve⏤America's Central Bank⏤allowed interest rates to rise to a whopping 19%.

1981 年時，美國中央銀行聯邦準備系統讓利率上漲到驚人的 19%。

The move curbed inflation, but it led to widespread economic pain.

那一舉遏止了通膨，但也引發普遍的經濟困頓。

I regret to say that we're in the worst economic mess since the Great Depression.

我很遺憾地宣佈，我們此刻正處於經濟大蕭條之後，最嚴重的經濟亂象。

It is very difficult to get inflation under control without severely denting economic activity.

要在不嚴重衝擊經濟活動的狀況下控制通膨是非常困難的。

In America, it's been over 70 years since they've managed to get inflation down from over 5% without causing a recession.

美國得以順利在不引起衰退的狀況下將通膨從 5% 以上降低已經過了 70 年。

A little inflation is okay⏤it keeps the economy moving at a sensible speed, but inflation staying high for too long is a problem.

些微的通膨無傷大雅，它能夠以合理的速度將經濟推進，但是通膨太長時間的居高不下就是個問題。

Higher prices means employees will need higher wages, pushing up costs for businesses.

較高的物價表示員工會需要更高的薪資，因而提高企業成本。

That could drive up prices further, potentially leading to an upward spiral of wages and prices.

那可能會更近一步地使得物價上漲，很可能導致薪資和物價的螺旋上漲。

Retail inflation India has surged to 7.8%.

印度的零售通膨已上漲至 7.8%。

The combination of tepid economic activity and high inflation poses serious challenges for [the] Indian economy going forward.

不溫不火的經濟活動加上高通膨率可能對印度未來的經濟造成嚴重威脅。

Central bankers are really concerned about setting expectations of inflation.

中央銀行極度關心的是如何界定通膨期望值。

The idea is that if it can show that it is credible, that it will always act to get inflation back down to 2%,

主要想法是，如果它可以展現其可信度，必定會採取行動讓通膨降到 2%，

then maybe it won't have to, you know, raise interest rates and then lower them in this kind of seesaw fashion.

那或許它就不會需要以這種翹翹板形式提高利率後又將其降低。

Raising interest rates can slow an economy right down.

提高利率可以直線減緩經濟體系。

The trouble is: the brake pedal has a delay.

問題時，剎車踏板有時間差。

It can take as long as two years to see the full results from interest rate changes.

要看到利率改變的完整結果可能耗費兩年之久。

Central banks know this.

中央銀行知道這個事實。

So, when they set interest rates, they're actually trying to read the road ahead.

所以當它們設定利率時，它們其實是試著要解讀未來的發展。

But predicting the future isn't easy.

但預測未來不是簡單事。

The problem is, it's difficult for the central bank to work out whether the inflation will fall back on its own.

問題是，中央銀行是難以計算出通膨是否能自行下跌。

And even when central banks do get it right, they might still cause a crash.

儘管中央銀行推測正確，它們也還是可能引起崩盤。

It may be a blunt instrument, but raising interest rates is still central banks' main tool for taming inflation.

它可能是生硬、唐突的手法，但提高利率仍然是中央銀行控制通膨的主要工具。

Central bankers would say that "yes, raising interest rates can be painful; slowing down the economy is not fun. But it's worth it".

中央銀行可能會說「沒錯，提升利率可能令人痛苦、減緩經濟活動不是趣事，但那是值得的」。

It's worth it to get low and steady inflation so that, in the long run, you don't have to think about it.

取得緩慢、穩定的通膨是值得的，這樣在長久之下看來，你就不用去想它了。

Thank you for watching.

謝謝收看。

To read more of our coverage on interest rates, click the link.

要閱讀我們關於利率的進一步報導，請點擊連結。

And don't forget to subscribe.

別忘了訂閱頻道。