Non-Bank Lending in Germany: How Investors can access Lending to the …
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Non-Bank Lending in Germany: How Investors can access Lending to the Middelstand

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Presentation held by Dr. Nicolaus Loos at the Private Debt Investor Conference in Munich, June 23rd 2016:
The German Midmarket has for long been considered "closed shop" for European Private Debt players seeking to undertake Direct Lending transactions. Dr. Loos outlines the attractiveness of Germany in comparison to other EU markets and in particular highlights the Mittelstand as an investment case, offering a highly attractive risk-return profile for investors. Accessing this market needs careful considerations though.

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Non-Bank Lending in Germany: How Investors can access Lending to the Middelstand

  1. 1. Non-bank Lending in Germany: How Investors can access Lending to the Mittelstand Munich, June 23rd 2016 Dr. Nicolaus Loos
  2. 2. Agenda 2 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  3. 3. Introduction to IKB and VALIN Key figures as at 31 March 2016 1) The CET 1 ratios were calculated in accordance with the current legal status of the CRR as at the respective reporting date, including transitional provisions and the interpretations published by the regulatory authorities and the interpretation thereof. The possibility that future EBA/ECB standards and interpretations or other regulatory action will lead to a retrospective change in the CET 1 ratio cannot be ruled out. 3 Since 90 years financing partner for SMEs, with a strong focus on German Mittelstand 5,000 focus clients across Germany & Europe and overall 20,000 SME contacts 1,050 employees (FTE) Total assets: €19.6bn Common Equity Tier 1 ratio1): 11.6% We are providing a wide range of corporate finance products – from loans to capital market products through to corporate advisory – to SME clients and financial sponsors across Europe Luxemburg-based private debt fund – structured, sponsored and managed by IKB Connecting institutional investors – e.g. insurance companies and pension funds – with German mid-market borrowers in the Mittelstand IKB provides Origination, Investment Management, Risk Management and further servicing functions for VALINFUNDS Accessing European mid-marketcorporate loans
  4. 4. Margins in Germany are too low to compete against and they will not meet investor target returns. Accessing the German Mittelstand is impossible as CFOs of German SMEs do not even want to talk to Direct Lenders. Non-bank lending to German Corporates is almost impossible for Private Debt players given major competition from German banks. Germany‘s national soccer team cannot be beaten and will win the Euro 2016 Cup! Key Myths about Germany 4 2 3 1 4
  5. 5. Agenda 5 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  6. 6. Average GDP growth vs industry share by country Industrial production by country (index 2010=100) Exports/ Imports as % of GDPGerman GDP and annual growth rates 580 620 660 700 740 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 Forecast +0.9% +3.9% +3.4% +0.8% -5.6% +3.9% +3.7% +0.6% +0.4% +1.6% +1.4% +1.7% 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Productionindex(2010=100) Germany France Italy Spain Euro-Area 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Average industry share 2011-15 AverageGDPgrowthin% 2011-15 Germany UK France Italy Spain 33.1% 30.2% 30.0% 27.4% 46.9% 30.7% 27.0% 31.4% 29.4% 39.1% Spain Italy France UK Germany 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% % of GDP 2015 Imports Exports Germany benefits from positive macroeconomic developments Sources: EIU, Statistisches Bundesamt 6 GDP, real, quarterly in €bn GER +9.5 EU +4.1 FR +1.1 ES -2.4 IT -6.2 1.6% / 30.5% -0.7% / 23.8% -0.1% / 23.2% 1.0% / 19.7% 2.1% / 20.1%
  7. 7. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Germany UK France Italy Revenue growth (yoy) 2013 2014 2015 European mid-markets playing a leading role in driving national growth rates Mid-market comparison of EU-4 economies (Germany, UK, France, Italy) 1) EU 4 including Germany, UK, France and Italy; Mid-market defined as follows (in annual turnover): Germany: €20m - €1bn; UK €20m - €1bn; France: €10m - €500m ; Italy €5m - €250m; as of 2013 Source: GE Capital 7 Mid-market revenue and workforce development 2013-2015 All other companiesMid-market companies EU-4 Mid-market profile1) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Germany UK France Italy Workforce growth (yoy) 2013 2014 2015 29% Employees 33% GDP 1% Firms 31% Revenue
  8. 8. Importance of upper mid-market (€50m - €1bn) Mittelstand propelled Germany to a global player with solid market share German corporate pyramid based on turnover Mid-caps – Backbone of German economy Source: Statistisches Bundesamt 8 Private debt fund focus 1,875 9,269 10,370 71,169 273,647 633,262 507 Number of companies 2014 by turnover 30.6% 2014 0.3% 2014 ~22,000 companies Turnover (in €m) >€1,000 €250 - €1,000 €50 - €250 €25 - €50 €5 - €25 €1 - €5 €0.25- €1 Share in revenue Share in total companies
  9. 9. Private debt fund focus 8.0% 16.8% 19.1% 23.5% 30.5% 19.5% < 1 1 - 25 25 - 100 100 - 500 500 - 1,000 > 1,000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Turnover in €m %changeinGernan companies2006-14 Change in no. of corporates by size 2006-14 (in %) Foreign activity of European mid-caps 2014-15 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2014-15 internationalrevenuegrowth (yoy,predicted) 2014-15 total mid-market revenue growth (yoy, actual) Germany UK France Italy Foreign direct investment in Europe 2010-14 11.4% 8.9% 7.3% 6.5% 5.9% Germany Spain Italy France UK 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% ShareofFDI(%) FDI in % of national investments (Ø2010-14) Development of German corporate landscape 2006-14 Growth supported by economic recovery and international expansion Significant growth in larger mid-cap segment Globalisation and industrialisation are key growth driver Sources: Statistisches Bundesamt, Bundesbank, ECB, GE Capital 9 4.0% / 4.6% 2.5% / 4.1% 3.7% / 4.9% 3.9% / 7.6%
  10. 10. Production levels and capacity utilisation in Germany 85 95 105 115 65 75 85 95 Productionindex Capacityutilisation Capacity utilisation in % Production index (2010=100) 12% 13% 13% 11% 14% 12% 15% 48% 50% 48% 54% 53% 52% 49% 32% 30% 31% 29% 28% 30% 31% 165 139 143 156 145 144 158 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Fundingin%oftotalinvestment Grossinvestment(€bn) Subsidies Own funds Bank loans Capital investments (gross) Investments as % of GDP German mid-cap lending mainly driven by growth/ capex requirement Mid-cap lending driven by economic recovery, pick up in investment and corresponding capex requirement Sources: EIU, KfW Mittelstandspanel, Statistisches Bundesamt 10 Mid-market investments and type of funding Ø utilisation 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Investmentsas%ofGDP Germany UK France Italy Spain ES 6.9% GER 6.6% IT 5.5% FR 4.8% UK 4.0%
  11. 11. 9% 24% 32% 13% 18% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Italy France Germany Spain UK 25.4% 26.3% 26.6% 26.9% 27.4% 28.6% 29.7% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% Average equity ratio Prevailing financing structures allow for lending opportunity in healthy corporate sector Sources: Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK), KfW Mittelstandspanel 11 Interest cover of European NFCs Liquidity profile of European NFCs Cash flow metrics of European NFCsEquity ratio of German mid-caps -10% 10% 30% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Italy France Germany Spain UK cash flow from op. activities to total assets capital expanditures (capex) to total assets net debt to total assets op. cash flow net of capex to net debt -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Italy France Germany Spain UK cash flow from op. activities to total assets capital expanditures (capex) to total assets net debt to total assets op. cash flow net of capex to net debt 2x 5x 5x 3x 4x 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x 7x 8x Italy France Germany Spain UK 10% 10% 10% 7% 8% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Italy France Germany Spain UK 2011 2013 2015 Cash plus ST assets in % of total assets
  12. 12. Agenda 12 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  13. 13. German three-pillar banking system 1) Balance sheet total excludes total cumulated assets of Building & Loan Associations of €213.1bn Source: Bundesbank 13 Supervision: Commercial Banks Public Banks Cooperative Banks1 2 3 Balance sheet total: €2,104bn1)Balance sheet total: €3,081bn1) Balance sheet total: €1,115bn 4 Big Banks 1.021 Credit Unions413 Savings Banks 2 Central Institutions 9 Federal State Banks Building & Loan Associations State Driven Support 160 Regional / 106 Foreign Banks Building & Loan Associations
  14. 14. 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 Totalassetsin€bn Balance sheet sum of German banks Loans to European NFCs Short-term debt portion of European NFCs Balance sheet sum of banks in Germany in €bnBank assets to GDP -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% yoychange(%) Germany France Italy Spain Euro Zone Banks remain dominant external – yet declining – source of funding… Sources: ECB, Bundesbank, Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK) 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 TotalbankassetstoGDP(x) Germany France Italy Spain FR 3.7x ES 2.6x GER 2.5x IT 2.4x 4/2016 FR +4.5% GER +3.5% EU +0.9% ES -1.5% IT -1.9% 5/2012 €8,860bn 4/2016 €7,807bn -12% 10% 20% 30% 40% Shorttermdebt tototaldebt(%) Germany UK France Italy Spain GER 33% FR 28% IT 26% ES 20% UK 16% 14
  15. 15. 7,0581) 6,007 4,552 3,578 2,466 2,400 2,344 2,301 2,277 2,169 2,128 2,093 2,080 2,053 2,029 1,990 Net interest income of selected German banks Further Regulation Basel II Global financial crisis Further Regulation Basel III Regulation Regulation Basel I Ongoing consolidation in the German banking sector 15 2008: Merger of Deutsche Bank and Postbank 1980s: DG Bank merge with several regional central banks2); Bayr. Vereinsbank and Bayr. Hypotheken- und Wechselbank form HVB 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% All banking groups Big banks Federal state banks Savings banks Cooperative banks Credit unions 1) Total number of banks in Germany; 2) Including Bayrische Raiffeisen-Zentralbank AG and Bayrische Volksbanken AG, among others Sources: Bundesbank, Statistisches Bundesamt, IKB research 1970: Merger of two regional Banks (near Münster) and the cooporative central bank Rhineland to form WGZ-Bank 2000: Merger of South-West German cooperative central banks to form the SGZ-Bank and GZB- Bank 2005: WestLB acquires Weberbank 2003: Merger of Hamburgischer LB and LB Schleswig-Holstein; HVB sells Norisbank to DZ Bank 2004: LBBW takes over LB Rheinland-Pfalz; Private bank Sal. Oppenheim acquires BHF 2002: Split up of WestLB to Landesbank NRW and WestLB AG 2009: HSH on the edge to insolvency; Merger of Dres- dner Bank and Commerzbank 2007: WestLB split into three parts, following a dramatic loss from speculations 2006: Deutsche Bank acquires Berliner Bank and branch net-work of Norisbank 2016: Agreed merger of DZ and WGZ
  16. 16. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 UK France Germany Other EU Alternative lending in Europe – Status quo & upside in Germany Primary deal distribution across Europe 1) Q4/ 2015; Deal tracker covers 42 alternative lenders; only primary mid-market deal included: in the last 13 quarters. 629 deals mid-market deals are recorded in Europe; 2) Cumulated UK, France and Germany Source: Deloitte 16 Alternative lenders increasing deal flow in Europe 63 60 66 53 61 79 4141 54 3534 24 ~13% ~14%~8%~8% LTM German share 18 Total # deal: 629 Alternative lending deals in Europe1) # of deals Relative share of GDP2) vs relative share of alternative lender deals 1 1 5 2 18 149 74 274 13 10 1 8 28.2% 30.0% 32.7% 55.1% 39.1% 14.9% 19 27 4 3 UK 43% France 24% Germany 12% Other European 21% 629 11
  17. 17. Agenda 17 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  18. 18. Overall credit quality in Europe keeps improving… Sources: Consob (Bloomberg analysis of top 30 non-financial companies by market capitalisation as of end of December 2015 for Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK), Euler Hermes 18 Trends and risk indicators in European bank lending Interest rates and expected default frequency yoy change in insolvencies Sales and profit vulnerabilityLending conditions and lending growth -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 -8 -4 0 4 8 Tighteninginlending conditions Lending growth Dec-2014 Dec-2015 Dec-2011 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 Interestrateon bankloans Expected default frequency Germany France Italy Spain 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Italy France Germany Spain UK reporting annual change in net revenues < 10-year average reporting net loss Number of companies in percentage of the sample as of December 2015 2015 vs. 2014 in % Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Retail/Trade Transportation Service Countrytotal Germany -15% -6% -4% -7% -13% -1% -4% France -3% -7% -3% -4% -9% -1% 1% Italy - -14% -8% -6% -6% -2% -6% UK -24% -8% -11% -3% -11% -6% -14% Spain 25% -39% -34% -17% -35% -19% -26% Ø change by sector -4% -15% -12% -7% -15% -6% -10% same indicators for previous year Dec-2014 Dec-2015 Dec-2011 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 Interestrateon bankloans Expected default frequency Germany France Italy Spain
  19. 19. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% S&P ELLI loan default rate (based upon issuer count) ...while Germany in particular has a track record of extremely low default rates Default rates in Germany Sources: Creditreform, LCD 19 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Default rates of German corporates with sales >€20m Historical development of overall defaults 0.70 0.56 0.16 0.57 0.38 0.04 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 20-50 50-250 >250 2014 2015 0.64 0.10 0.47 Ø default rates German default rate by company size (turnover) 3/2016 1.95%
  20. 20. …while offering solid returns YTM of primary leveraged loans (TLB1)) by country 1) All purposes, corporate and sponsored; 2) Excluding lowest IRR outlier in each category; 3) Continental Europe ex UK; 4) Q1/Q2 YTD Sources: CEPRES, LCD, Dialogic 20 2014 2015 2016 YTD France Germany Italy Netherlands United Kingdom United States HY corporate bonds – Average spreads to swap Europe Average quarterly spreads to swap (bps) CEPRES® IRRs – DACH vs Europe vs US 2013 2014 2015 2016 Spreadtoswapinbps France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom Senior 2) DACH Europe (ex DACH)3) US Pooled IRR 6.8% 7.9% 5.1% Min 2.1% 4.7% -59.4% Max 18.2% 17.4% 938.1% Q1 Upper 8.7% 8.9% 16.0% Q2 Median 7.9% 8.0% 8.1% Q3 Lower 7.1% 6.9% -3.3% Average best performer (Q1) 10.8% 11.0% 123.1% Average worst performer (Q4) 6.0% 6.0% -32.2% 4)
  21. 21. Agenda 21 1 Introduction & Myths about Germany 2 2 German Mittelstand Opportunity 5 3 German Competitive Environment & Direct Lending Activity 12 4 German Risk-Return Dynamics 17 5 How to access the Mittelstand 21
  22. 22. Accessing the Mittelstand 22 Local network Local advisors Local partners Local joint ventures  Sourcing partnerships with local banks, but also other local managers can help accelerate deal flow  Opportunity for joint-invest and co-invest in larger deals  Banks are increasingly open to transactions  So far no revenue sharing except for “operating business“ or the table from PD  Private Equity has been successful by leveraging a network of local senior advisors  Industry experts can support credit process and evaluation  Accessing the local network of corporate & debt advisors beyond the obvious Tier 1 names  Smaller, local advisors are relationship driven, auditors, lawyers etc. Local feel & lobby  Strong presence and sponsoring of local events, including associations and the political and financial community necessary Local employee office  Local language essential to access Mittelstand  Local office underlines regional focus 1 2 3 4 5 6
  23. 23. Thank you! Any questions? 23
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