2021 Virginia gubernatorial election - Wikipedia

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2021 to elect the next governor of Virginia. The election was concurrent with other elections for Virginia state offices. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam was ineligible to run for reelection, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms.

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

← 2017 November 2, 2021[1] 2025 →
Turnout55.3% Increase 7.7
  Glenn Youngkin Headshot (cropped 2).jpg Terry McAuliffe 2020 (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Glenn Youngkin Terry McAuliffe
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,663,596 1,600,116
Percentage 50.6% 48.6%

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2021 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
Youngkin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
McAuliffe:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Governor before election

Ralph Northam
Democratic

Elected Governor

Glenn Youngkin
Republican

Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin won the party's nomination at the party's May 8 convention, which was held in 37 polling locations across the state,[2] and was officially declared the nominee on May 10.[3] The Democratic Party held its primary election on June 8,[4] which former Governor Terry McAuliffe easily won.[5] In the general election, Youngkin defeated McAuliffe to become the 74th Governor of Virginia.[6]

Youngkin won by the narrowest margin in a Virginia gubernatorial election since 1989. He was the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009 and only the fourth to win the governorship in 40 years. McAuliffe conceded the day after the election and congratulated Youngkin, saying he was "proud" to campaign "for the values we so deeply believe in".[7][8] Republicans also flipped the lieutenant governor and attorney general races that were held concurrently,[9] as well as took control of the Virginia House of Delegates. This election, as well as the concurrent elections for lieutenant governor and attorney general, marked the first time since the 1969 gubernatorial election that a Republican won Virginia without Loudoun County, and the first time since the 1960 presidential election that a Republican won statewide without Prince William County. This is the first time Surry County backed the Republican candidate since John Warner's largely uncontested re-election in 2002 and the first time Prince Edward County or Northampton County voted Republican since 2009. This is also the first time any Virginia statewide candidate has won without at least one of the three Northern Virginia counties of Loudon, Prince William, Fairfax, or the independent cities therein. Over 3.28 million votes were cast, exceeding the 2017 gubernatorial election total by roughly 625,000, and all previous Virginia gubernatorial elections by over a million.

Youngkin's win was seen as an upset after McAuliffe led polls[10] until the closing weeks of the campaign.[11] Education, public health, and culture issues were the centerpiece of Youngkin's platform throughout the election cycle.[12][13][14] Youngkin promised to ban the teaching of critical race theory within state schools on "day one", push back against certain COVID-19 mandates and restrictions, and advocate for small government within the state of Virginia.[15][16][17]

Democratic primaryEdit

CandidatesEdit

NomineeEdit

Eliminated in primaryEdit

WithdrewEdit

EndorsementsEdit

Lee J. Carter
Justin Fairfax
Foreign politician
Terry McAuliffe
Governor
U.S. Representative
State delegates
State senators
Local officials
Labor unions
Newspapers
Individuals
Organizations

DebatesEdit

A debate between the five candidates took place on April 6, 2021.[70] Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax compared scrutiny of his sexual assault allegations to that of the cases of George Floyd and Emmett Till in the debate.[71]

PollingEdit

Graphical summaryEdit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jennifer
Carroll Foy
Lee
Carter
Justin
Fairfax
Terry
McAuliffe
Jennifer
McClellan
Other Undecided
Roanoke College May 24 – June 1, 2021 637 (LV) ± 3.9% 11% 1% 5% 49% 9% 0% 24%
Christopher Newport University April 11–20, 2021 806 (LV) ± 3.9% 5% 1% 8% 47% 6% 2% 31%
Public Policy Polling (D) April 12–13, 2021 526 (LV) ± 4.3% 8% 4% 7% 42% 8% 29%
Christopher Newport University January 31 – February 14, 2021 488 (RV) ± 4.9% 4% 1% 12% 26% 4% 0% 54%
YouGov Blue (D) February 6–11, 2021 235 (RV) ± 7.4% 7% 6% 6% 43% 8% 0% 30%
Global Strategy Group (D)[A] January 12–20, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% 14% 42% 6% 30%
Expedition Strategies (D)[B] December 2020 – (LV) 5% 16% 32% 8% 38%

ResultsEdit

 
Results by county and independent city:
McAuliffe
  •   McAuliffe—80–90%
  •   McAuliffe—70–80%
  •   McAuliffe—60–70%
  •   McAuliffe—50–60%
  •   McAuliffe—40–50%
Democratic primary results[72]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 307,367 62.10%
Democratic Jennifer Carroll Foy 98,052 19.81%
Democratic Jennifer McClellan 58,213 11.76%
Democratic Justin Fairfax 17,606 3.56%
Democratic Lee J. Carter 13,694 2.77%
Total votes 494,932 100.00%

Republican conventionEdit

The Republican nomination process for the 2021 elections was the subject of a lengthy and acrimonious debate within the Republican Party of Virginia.[73][74] On December 5, 2020, the state Republican Party voted to hold a convention instead of a primary by a vote of 39 to 35.[75] State Senator Amanda Chase initially indicated that she would run as an independent,[76] but she later decided to seek nomination at the convention; on the day of the convention, she acknowledged that if she did not win the nomination, she may reconsider and run as an independent, although she eventually decided against this.[77] Faced with pressure from the Chase campaign and activists to return to a primary, the state committee debated scrapping the convention on January 23, 2021. These efforts were unsuccessful and the party reaffirmed their decision to hold a convention.[78] On February 9, 2021, the Chase campaign sued the Republican Party of Virginia, arguing that the convention is illegal under COVID-19-related executive orders signed by Governor Ralph Northam.[79] The Richmond Circuit Court dismissed the Chase campaign's lawsuit on February 19, 2021.[80] The Republican Party of Virginia announced on March 26, 2021, that seven gubernatorial candidates had qualified to appear on the convention ballot.[81] On April 11, 2021, the state Republican Party Rules Committee voted to tabulate the ballots by hand; three days later, however, the committee reversed itself and decided to use a vendor's software-based tabulation method.[73]

On April 20, 2021, five candidates (Amanda Chase, Kirk Cox, Sergio de la Peña, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin) participated in a forum at Liberty University in Lynchburg.[82] Two candidates, Octavia Johnson and Pete Snyder, did not attend the forum.[82][83]

The state Republican convention to select the party's nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general took place on May 8, 2021,[74][73] in "unassembled" format,[73] with ballots to be cast remotely at up to 37 locations statewide[74] using ranked-choice voting.[73] The complex process fueled internal party disputes.[84] Up to 40,000 people were anticipated to become delegates, although not all would necessarily cast votes.[73] Local Republican Party leaders control the application process to become a delegate, decide who can participate (voter registration in Virginia does not include a space to indicate party affiliation), and select the convention voting site.[84] In the preceding Virginia Republican gubernatorial convention, 12,000 participated.[73]

Orthodox Jewish Virginia Republicans asked the party to allow absentee voting for religious reasons (May 8 is on the Jewish Sabbath), but the State Central Committee initially voted down the request, failing to achieve the 75% supermajority needed to change the rules.[85] However, the Virginia GOP ultimately reversed course and allowed those with religious objections to vote in the May 8 convention via absentee ballots. Republican candidates Kirk Cox, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin had criticized the previous decision to not accommodate Orthodox Jews.[86]

CandidatesEdit

Nominated at conventionEdit

Defeated at conventionEdit

Did not qualifyEdit

DeclinedEdit

EndorsementsEdit

Amanda Chase
Glenn Youngkin
U.S. Senator
Governor
State senator
State delegate

PollingEdit

Graphical summaryEdit

Without convention polling

Primary pollingEdit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Amanda
Chase
Kirk
Cox
Sergio
de la Peña
Peter
Doran
Octavia
Johnson
Pete
Snyder
Glenn
Youngkin
Other Undecided
Change Research (D) May 5–6, 2021 605 (LV) ± 4.4% 29% 7% 2% 0% 1% 13% 25% 25%
Public Policy Polling (D)[C] April 2021 695 (LV) ± 3.7% 22% 7% 3% 1% 0% 16% 21% 30%
Christopher Newport University January 31 – February 14, 2021 370 (RV) ± 5.6% 17% 10% 3% 55%
YouGov Blue (D) February 6–11, 2021 170 (RV) ± 8.6% 24% 7% 1% 13% 5% 0% 54%

Convention pollingEdit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Amanda
Chase
Kirk
Cox
Pete
Snyder
Glenn
Youngkin
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[D] April 29 – May 3, 2021 3,896 (LV) ± 1.6% 10% 10% 26% 38% 13% 3%
 
Final results by county and independent city:
Youngkin
  •   Youngkin—80–90%
  •   Youngkin—70–80%
  •   Youngkin—60–70%
  •   Youngkin—50–60%
Tie
  •   Tie—50%
Snyder
  •   Snyder—50–60%
  •   Snyder—60–70%
  •   Snyder—70–80%
  •   Snyder—>90%

ResultsEdit

 
Round-by-round result visualization of the Ranked Choice Voting election
Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee[122]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Glenn Youngkin 4131.80 32.9% 4140.55 33.0% 4148.91 33.0% 4331.93 34.5% 5311.43 42.3% 6869.22 54.7%
Pete Snyder 3241.61 25.8% 3243.84 25.8% 3249.71 25.9% 3502.91 27.9% 4078.25 32.5% 5684.78 45.3%
Amanda Chase 2605.89 20.8% 2611.54 20.8% 2619.83 20.9% 2859.39 22.8% 3164.32 25.2% Eliminated
Kirk Cox 1693.58 13.5% 1698.13 13.5% 1705.90 13.6% 1859.77 14.8% Eliminated
Sergio de la Peña 805.35 6.4% 812.44 6.5% 829.65 6.6% Eliminated
Peter Doran 42.28 0.3% 47.50 0.4% Eliminated
Octavia Johnson 33.48 0.3% Eliminated

Other parties and independentsEdit

CandidatesEdit

DeclaredEdit

Did not qualifyEdit

DeclinedEdit

General electionEdit

On August 26, the Republican Party of Virginia filed a lawsuit to disqualify McAuliffe from appearing on the ballot in November. The suit alleges that McAuliffe did not sign his declaration of candidacy, which is needed to qualify in the primary and general election.[133] It was found that the declaration of candidacy was missing his signature, although it includes two witnesses' signatures. The suit also alleges the witnesses violated state law by witnessing a signing that didn't occur.[134]

DebatesEdit

Canceled debatesEdit

On July 12, Glenn Youngkin announced he would not take part in the July 24 debate hosted by the Virginia Bar Association because of a donation made by one of the moderators, Judy Woodruff.[135][136] Woodruff had made a $250 donation to the Clinton Foundation relief fund after the 2010 Haiti earthquake. The foundation is run by Hillary and Bill Clinton, who are close allies to Terry McAuliffe.[135] On July 28, after discovering that Youngkin would participate in an 'election integrity' rally at Liberty University, McAuliffe declined a debate at the same university.[137] On August 2, Youngkin declined participation in The People's Debate.[138] The two candidates pledged to two debates; one on September 16 and one on September 28.[139]

First debateEdit

Youngkin and McAuliffe met at Appalachian School of Law in Grundy, Virginia on September 16, 2021, one day before early voting began.[140] The debate was hosted by USA Today Washington Bureau Chief, Susan Page.[141]

The debate started with discussion over a recent COVID-19 mandate President Joe Biden signed requiring federal workers, employees of large companies, and contractors to be vaccinated.[142][143] Youngkin doubted if Biden had the power to authorize the mandate, and supported personal choice for receiving the vaccine. McAuliffe supported the mandate and accused Youngkin of spreading "anti-vax" rhetoric.[143] Youngkin denied the claim.[139] McAuliffe also supported requiring vaccines for students over the age of 12.[144] McAuliffe has also repeatedly made false statements about COVID-19, often inflating the number of cases.[145]

The discussion moved to climate change, where Youngkin stated he would use all sources of energy to address climate change without "putting [the] entire energy grid at risk for political purposes." McAuliffe called for clean energy in the state by 2035 and stressed the idea for the state to be a production hub.[139]

The discussion then moved to abortion, specifically the recent Texas Heartbeat Act signed by Texas Governor Greg Abbott (who endorsed Youngkin).[146] When asked whether or not Youngkin would sign a similar bill, Youngkin stated that he would not sign the bill, and that he was pro-life and supports exclusions in cases such as rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is endangered. He also stated he supports a "pain-threshold" bill that would ban most abortions at the point when a fetus can feel pain, which proponents of this type of law define as 20 weeks.[139] In addition, Youngkin stated McAuliffe was "the most extreme pro-abortion candidate in America today".[146] In response to Youngkin, McAuliffe stated he was a "brick wall" on women's rights and would protect a woman's decision over abortion and supports reducing the number of doctors needed to certify a third-trimester abortion from three to one.[146] McAuliffe falsely stated that Youngkin wants to completely ban abortion.[147]

The next discussion topic was over election integrity. After supporting an "Election Integrity Taskforce", Youngkin stated he does not believe there has been "significant fraud", and stated the issue of fraud as "a democracy issue". Youngkin stressed that he believes that "Joe Biden's our president" and criticized the withdrawal from Afghanistan. McAuliffe took note to Donald Trump's endorsement of Youngkin, calling him a "Trump wannabe".[143] Both candidates stated they would concede the election if the other came out on top.[146]

The final discussion topic was over the economy. McAuliffe attacked Youngkin on his top economic advisor, Stephen Moore, who advised Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. Youngkin defended Virginia's right-to-work law.[146]

Second debateEdit

Youngkin and McAuliffe met at the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce on September 28, 2021.[148] The event was hosted by Chuck Todd, moderator of NBC's Meet the Press. Less than a week before the debate, one of the panelists, Michael Fauntroy, withdrew from the debate after tweets against the GOP and Evangelicals were found.[149]

On the discussion topic of COVID-19, Youngkin and McAuliffe reiterated their stances on the vaccines. Youngkin stated he believed in mandates for vaccines for diseases measles, mumps and rubella, but not for COVID-19, saying that "the data associated with those vaccines is something that we should absolutely understand the difference between this vaccine."[150] Youngkin said people should get vaccinated against COVID-19.[150]

During the debate, Youngkin noted that Trump was regularly mentioned by McAuliffe, who again called Youngkin a "Trump wannabe."[150][151] When asked, Youngkin stated he would support Trump if he were to become the Republican nominee in 2024.[151]

Approximately 15 minutes into the debate, third party candidate Princess Blanding, who was in the audience, disrupted the debate, screaming that her exclusion from the debate was "unfair" and claiming that McAuliffe would not win the election.[152] After being escorted out by security, she claimed that being excluded from the debate was racist and sexist, and that it constituted "censorship".[153]

PredictionsEdit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[154] Tossup October 5, 2021
Inside Elections[155] Tossup November 1, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[156] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2021

EndorsementsEdit

Terry McAuliffe (D)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals
Glenn Youngkin (R)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals

PollingEdit

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Terry
McAuliffe (D)
Glenn
Youngkin (R)
Other/Undecided
[b]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 20–31, 2021 November 1, 2021 46.8% 48.5% 4.8% Youngkin +1.7%
FiveThirtyEight August 1 – November 1, 2021 November 1, 2021 47.0% 47.9% 5.1% Youngkin +1.0%
Average 46.9% 48.2% 5.0% Youngkin +1.4%
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Terry
McAuliffe (D)
Glenn
Youngkin (R)
Princess
Blanding (Lib.)
Other Undecided
Research Co. October 31 – November 1, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 48% 2% 3%
Targoz Market Research October 26 – November 1, 2021 747 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 47% 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29–31, 2021 1,081 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 2% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 27–30, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47% 2% 6%
Echelon Insights October 27–29, 2021 611 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 2% 4%
Roanoke College October 14–28, 2021 571 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 47% 1% 0% 4%
Fox News October 24–27, 2021 1,212 (RV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% 2% 3%
1,015 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 53% 1% 1%
Washington Post/Schar School October 20–26, 2021 1,107 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 44% 3% 2%[c] 3%
49% 45% 3%[d] 4%
918 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% 1% 0%[e] 2%
49% 48% 0%[f] 2%
Christopher Newport University October 17–25, 2021 944 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 48% 1% 1%
Suffolk University October 21–24, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% 2% 7%
Emerson College October 22–23, 2021 875 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 48% 1% 3%
co/efficient (R)[E] October 20–21, 2021 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 5% 5%
Cygnal (R) October 19–21, 2021 816 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 48% 1% 3%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[F] October 18–21, 2021 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 43% 1% 15%
Virginia Commonwealth University October 9–21, 2021 722 (LV) ± 6.4% 41% 38% 10% 11%
Monmouth University October 16–19, 2021 1,005 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 46% 2% 7%
1,005 (LV)[g] 45% 48%
1,005 (LV)[h] 48% 45%
Data for Progress (D) October 4–15, 2021 1,589 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 45% 2% 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 11–13, 2021 1,095 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 1% 3%
Fox News October 10–13, 2021 1,004 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 41% 2% 5%
726 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 46% 1% 2%
Schoen Cooperman Research (D) October 9–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 0% 10%
YouGov/CBS News October 4–11, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 47% 2% 0%
Christopher Newport University September 27 – October 6, 2021 802 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 45% 1% 5%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2021 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 48% 1% 2%
Fox News September 26–29, 2021 901 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 1% 7%
Roanoke College September 12–26, 2021 603 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 41% 1% 1% 9%
Monmouth University September 22–26, 2021 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% 2% 8%
801 (LV)[g] 48% 45%
801 (LV)[h] 50% 43%
Global Strategy Group (D) September 16–20, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% 7%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[F] September 17–19, 2021 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 1% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] September 17–18, 2021 875 (V) ± 3.3% 45% 42% 13%
Virginia Commonwealth University September 7–15, 2021 731 (LV) ± 6.9% 43% 34% 10% 13%
Emerson College September 13–14, 2021 778 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 45% 2% 5%
University of Mary Washington September 7–13, 2021 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 43% 38% 2% 6%[i] 11%
885 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 41% 2%
528 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 48% 2% 2%[j] 6%
Washington Post/Schar School September 7–13, 2021 907 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 3% 4%
728 (LV) ± 4.5% 50% 47% 1% 2%
WPA Intelligence (R)[H] August 30 – September 2, 2021 734 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% 3% 4%
48% 48% 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 26–29, 2021 1,074 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 46% 2% 5%
Monmouth University August 24–29, 2021 802 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 42% 2% 9%
802 (LV)[g] 47% 45%
802 (LV)[h] 49% 42%
Christopher Newport University August 15–23, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 41% 3% 6%
Change Research (D) August 17–21, 2021 1,653 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 43% 3% 5%
Change Research (D)[I] August 14–18, 2021 1,334 (LV) ± 2.7% 47% 44% 9%
Roanoke College August 3–17, 2021 558 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 38% 2% 1% 13%
Virginia Commonwealth University August 4–15, 2021 770 (RV) ± 5.4% 40% 37% 15% 9%
~747 (LV) ± 5.5% 40% 37% 14% 9%
co/efficient (R) August 8–9, 2021 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 45% 8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[H] August 3–5, 2021 734 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 43% 3% 4%
51% 45% 4%
co/efficient (R)[J] July 25–27, 2021 762 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 40% 2% 13%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 8–10, 2021 1,104 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 45% 4% 4%
Spry Strategies (R)[K] July 6–9, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 2% 10%
JMC Analytics and Polling (R) June 9–12, 2021 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 42% 12%
WPA Intelligence (R)[H] June 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% 5%

FundraisingEdit

Campaign finance reports as of October 21, 2021
Candidate Amount raised
Glenn Youngkin $49,864,353
Terry McAuliffe $55,470,132
Princess Blanding $27,494
Source: Virginia Public Access Project[241]

General election resultsEdit

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election[242]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Glenn Youngkin 1,663,596 50.57 +5.60
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 1,600,116 48.64 -5.26
Liberation Princess Blanding 23,125 0.70 New party
Write-in 2,593 0.08 +0.03
Total votes 3,289,403 100 N/A
Turnout
Registered electors 5,951,368
Republican gain from Democratic

Results by county and cityEdit

County Youngkin McAuliffe Blanding Others
Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent Votes Percent
Accomack 7,878 61.08% 4,948 38.37% 67 0.52% 4 0.03%
Albemarle 19,141 37.21% 31,919 62.05% 347 0.67% 36 0.07%
Alexandria 14,013 24.02% 43,866 75.20% 385 0.66% 66 0.11%
Alleghany 4,530 74.52% 1,518 24.97% 26 0.43% 5 0.08%
Amelia 4,720 74.19% 1,617 25.42% 23 0.36% 2 0.03%
Amherst 9,731 71.00% 3,897 28.43% 72 0.53% 6 0.04%
Appomattox 5,971 80.26% 1,438 19.33% 26 0.35% 5 0.07%
Arlington 21,548 22.63% 73,013 76.67% 554 0.58% 116 0.12%
Augusta 26,196 77.93% 7,231 21.51% 170 0.51% 16 0.05%
Bath 1,539 79.04% 396 20.34% 11 0.56% 1 0.05%
Bedford 30,912 79.10% 8,001 20.47% 145 0.37% 21 0.05%
Bland 2,274 85.78% 364 13.73% 12 0.45% 1 0.04%
Botetourt 13,066 76.30% 3,990 23.30% 61 0.36% 8 0.05%
Bristol 3,773 73.30% 1,342 26.07% 30 0.58% 2 0.04%
Brunswick 2,880 47.34% 3,165 52.02% 34 0.56% 5 0.08%
Buchanan 5,083 84.72% 903 15.05% 8 0.13% 6 0.10%
Buckingham 3,894 63.29% 2,222 36.11% 35 0.57% 2 0.03%
Buena Vista 1,459 74.33% 481 24.50% 22 1.12% 1 0.05%
Campbell 18,213 78.39% 4,930 21.22% 77 0.33% 15 0.06%
Caroline 6,917 57.35% 5,045 41.83% 91 0.75% 8 0.07%
Carroll 9,868 83.45% 1,910 16.15% 43 0.36% 4 0.03%
Charles City 1,550 45.76% 1,822 53.79% 15 0.44% 0 0.00%
Charlotte 3,354 70.26% 1,396 29.24% 21 0.44% 3 0.06%
Charlottesville 2,774 15.99% 14,378 82.88% 173 1.00% 22 0.13%
Chesapeake 48,079 52.43% 42,907 46.79% 654 0.71% 59 0.06%
Chesterfield 80,889 51.76% 74,085 47.41% 1,194 0.76% 109 0.07%
Clarke 4,642 62.54% 2,739 36.90% 34 0.46% 7 0.09%
Colonial Heights 4,913 73.27% 1,729 25.79% 53 0.79% 10 0.15%
Covington 1,198 66.82% 579 32.29% 16 0.89% 0 0.00%
Craig 2,079 83.16% 400 16.00% 17 0.68% 4 0.16%
Culpeper 13,436 66.47% 6,661 32.95% 107 0.53% 10 0.05%
Cumberland 2,678 63.38% 1,515 35.86% 27 0.64% 5 0.12%
Danville 5,907 45.92% 6,872 53.42% 80 0.62% 5 0.04%
Dickenson 3,867 80.31% 934 19.40% 11 0.23% 3 0.06%
Dinwiddie 7,335 63.33% 4,181 36.10% 59 0.51% 7 0.06%
Emporia 723 39.47% 1,087 59.33% 20 1.09% 2 0.11%
Essex 2,684 57.00% 1,980 42.05% 39 0.83% 6 0.13%
Fairfax County 152,110 34.47% 286,316 64.89% 2,348 0.53% 492 0.11%
Fairfax 3,606 35.56% 6,465 63.74% 59 0.58% 12 0.12%
Falls Church 1,590 22.63% 5,388 76.69% 42 0.60% 6 0.09%
Fauquier 22,252 65.46% 11,570 34.04% 156 0.46% 14 0.04%
Floyd 5,230 69.75% 2,203 29.38% 59 0.79% 6 0.08%
Fluvanna 7,068 56.75% 5,312 42.65% 65 0.52% 9 0.07%
Franklin County 17,842 74.82% 5,894 24.71% 102 0.43% 10 0.04%
Franklin 1,270 42.83% 1,680 56.66% 14 0.47% 1 0.03%
Frederick 25,062 68.90% 11,164 30.69% 130 0.36% 19 0.05%
Fredericksburg 3,503 38.77% 5,402 59.79% 113 1.25% 17 0.19%
Galax 1,424 73.94% 492 25.55% 9 0.47% 1 0.05%
Giles 5,788 78.33% 1,535 20.77% 61 0.83% 5 0.07%
Gloucester 12,585 72.37% 4,712 27.09% 88 0.51% 6 0.03%
Goochland 9,585 65.87% 4,910 33.74% 52 0.36% 5 0.03%
Grayson 5,144 82.48% 1,062 17.03% 27 0.43% 4 0.06%
Greene 5,961 67.42% 2,806 31.73% 68 0.77% 7 0.08%
Greensville 1,709 46.98% 1,915 52.64% 12 0.33% 2 0.05%
Halifax 8,641 63.90% 4,804 35.53% 75 0.55% 2 0.01%
Hampton 14,651 32.48% 29,971 66.45% 449 1.00% 33 0.07%
Hanover 39,954 67.65% 18,753 31.75% 322 0.55% 35 0.06%
Harrisonburg 4,382 38.65% 6,812 60.09% 131 1.16% 12 0.11%
Henrico 55,796 40.24% 81,409 58.71% 1,342 0.97% 120 0.09%
Henry 12,902 69.61% 5,547 29.93% 74 0.40% 13 0.07%
Highland 969 74.37% 325 24.94% 8 0.61% 1 0.08%
Hopewell 3,095 49.31% 3,085 49.16% 87 1.39% 9 0.14%
Isle of Wight 12,000 64.26% 6,565 35.16% 91 0.49% 17 0.09%
James City 21,048 52.50% 18,836 46.98% 186 0.46% 21 0.05%
King and Queen 2,112 64.77% 1,130 34.65% 18 0.55% 1 0.03%
King George 7,286 68.09% 3,317 31.00% 91 0.85% 7 0.07%
King William 6,286 73.33% 2,247 26.21% 33 0.38% 6 0.07%
Lancaster 3,448 58.71% 2,406 40.97% 16 0.27% 3 0.05%
Lee 6,372 87.60% 882 12.13% 18 0.25% 2 0.03%
Lexington 775 37.30% 1,289 62.03% 10 0.48% 4 0.19%
Loudoun 71,467 44.17% 89,390 55.25% 803 0.50% 134 0.08%
Louisa 11,649 66.04% 5,896 33.43% 87 0.49% 7 0.04%
Lunenburg 3,019 65.67% 1,567 34.09% 11 0.24% 0 0.00%
Lynchburg 13,668 54.89% 11,000 44.17% 198 0.80% 35 0.14%
Madison 4,721 70.17% 1,973 29.33% 29 0.43% 5 0.07%
Manassas 5,050 44.67% 6,155 54.44% 87 0.77% 14 0.12%
Manassas Park 1,379 38.34% 2,158 59.99% 46 1.28% 14 0.39%
Martinsville 1,676 42.48% 2,224 56.38% 40 1.01% 5 0.13%
Mathews 3,493 71.56% 1,363 27.92% 18 0.37% 7 0.14%
Mecklenburg 7,922 65.81% 4,075 33.85% 37 0.31% 3 0.02%
Middlesex 3,703 65.97% 1,860 33.14% 47 0.84% 3 0.05%
Montgomery 17,041 51.96% 15,355 46.82% 377 1.15% 22 0.07%
Nelson 4,259 55.46% 3,346 43.57% 64 0.83% 11 0.14%
New Kent 8,569 71.02% 3,439 28.50% 52 0.43% 6 0.05%
Newport News 21,241 39.14% 32,399 59.69% 588 1.08% 48 0.09%
Norfolk 18,888 31.45% 40,324 67.14% 789 1.31% 60 0.10%
Northampton 2,650 50.34% 2,584 49.09% 27 0.51% 3 0.06%
Northumberland 4,167 63.95% 2,312 35.48% 37 0.57% 0 0.00%
Norton 866 71.99% 320 26.60% 13 1.08% 4 0.33%
Nottoway 3,497 64.57% 1,892 34.93% 24 0.44% 3 0.06%
Orange 10,670 66.23% 5,351 33.22% 80 0.50% 9 0.06%
Page 7,594 78.92% 1,995 20.73% 28 0.29% 5 0.05%
Patrick 5,946 82.14% 1,255 17.34% 32 0.44% 6 0.08%
Petersburg 1,207 13.50% 7,591 84.87% 141 1.58% 5 0.06%
Pittsylvania 19,543 75.31% 6,319 24.35% 76 0.29% 12 0.05%
Poquoson 4,897 77.75% 1,364 21.66% 32 0.51% 5 0.08%
Portsmouth 9,946 33.34% 19,513 65.41% 355 1.19% 19 0.06%
Powhatan 12,582 76.86% 3,721 22.73% 58 0.35% 10 0.06%
Prince Edward 3,876 54.40% 3,210 45.05% 36 0.51% 3 0.04%
Prince George 8,548 64.65% 4,577 34.62% 84 0.64% 13 0.10%
Prince William 64,658 42.20% 87,352 57.01% 1,111 0.73% 97 0.06%
Pulaski 9,631 74.06% 3,277 25.20% 88 0.68% 9 0.07%
Radford 2,266 54.03% 1,879 44.80% 44 1.05% 5 0.12%
Rappahannock 2,507 59.45% 1,686 39.98% 19 0.45% 5 0.12%
Richmond County 2,225 69.90% 936 29.41% 20 0.63% 2 0.06%
Richmond 15,713 19.61% 61,929 77.27% 2,409 3.01% 91 0.11%
Roanoke County 28,157 65.70% 14,445 33.70% 220 0.51% 37 0.09%
Roanoke 12,024 41.25% 16,817 57.70% 272 0.93% 34 0.12%
Rockbridge 6,906 68.89% 3,071 30.64% 40 0.40% 7 0.07%
Rockingham 26,765 75.31% 8,569 24.11% 182 0.51% 23 0.06%
Russell 8,229 84.83% 1,452 14.97% 17 0.18% 3 0.03%
Salem 6,144 64.29% 3,344 34.99% 60 0.63% 8 0.08%
Scott 7,065 86.89% 1,034 12.72% 28 0.34% 4 0.05%
Shenandoah 13,693 74.64% 4,535 24.72% 107 0.58% 11 0.06%
Smyth 8,477 82.55% 1,751 17.05% 35 0.34% 6 0.06%
Southampton 5,084 64.90% 2,717 34.68% 29 0.37% 4 0.05%
Spotsylvania 32,478 59.84% 21,426 39.47% 346 0.64% 29 0.05%
Stafford 31,680 55.00% 25,463 44.20% 425 0.74% 35 0.06%
Staunton 4,640 47.49% 5,004 51.21% 119 1.22% 8 0.08%
Suffolk 17,351 47.26% 19,079 51.96% 252 0.69% 34 0.09%
Surry 1,768 50.00% 1,756 49.66% 9 0.25% 3 0.08%
Sussex 1,973 49.02% 2,028 50.39% 24 0.60% 0 0.00%
Tazewell 12,045 86.59% 1,821 13.09% 40 0.29% 4 0.03%
Virginia Beach 86,973 53.62% 73,965 45.60% 1,160 0.72% 99 0.06%
Warren 11,294 71.85% 4,328 27.53% 89 0.57% 8 0.05%
Washington 17,395 79.08% 4,505 20.48% 78 0.35% 18 0.08%
Waynesboro 4,473 56.94% 3,275 41.69% 99 1.26% 9 0.11%
Westmoreland 4,614 60.55% 2,971 38.99% 30 0.39% 5 0.07%
Williamsburg 1,703 34.54% 3,185 64.59% 40 0.81% 3 0.06%
Winchester 4,137 48.69% 4,294 50.54% 60 0.71% 5 0.06%
Wise 9,691 83.90% 1,796 15.55% 53 0.46% 11 0.10%
Wythe 9,458 81.78% 2,043 17.67% 59 0.51% 5 0.04%
York 17,485 58.59% 12,190 40.85% 150 0.50% 16 0.05%

Results by Congressional districtEdit

District Youngkin McAuliffe Representative
1st 58.6% 40.7% Rob Wittman
2nd 53.7% 45.5% Elaine Luria
3rd 37.0% 61.9% Bobby Scott
4th 42.6% 55.9% Donald McEachin
5th 59.7% 39.7% Bob Good
6th 66.0% 33.3% Ben Cline
7th 55.0% 44.6% Abigail Spanberger
8th 26.8% 72.5% Don Beyer
9th 74.5% 24.8% Morgan Griffith
10th 47.4% 52.0% Jennifer Wexton
11th 32.6% 66.6% Gerry Connolly

[243]

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to RepublicanEdit

See alsoEdit

NotesEdit

  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Would not vote and None of these with 1%
  4. ^ Neither with 2%, Would not vote with 1%
  5. ^ Would not vote and None of these with 0%
  6. ^ Would not vote and Neither with 0%
  7. ^ a b c Weighted toward more low-propensity voters
  8. ^ a b c Weighted toward fewer low-propensity voters
  9. ^ None/Would not vote with 5%, other/write-in with 1%
  10. ^ None/Would not vote and other/write-in with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Carroll Foy's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by McClellan's campaign
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by Winsome Sears's campaign
  6. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Presidential Coalition
  7. ^ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care
  8. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
  9. ^ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
  10. ^ This poll was sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy – VA
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by the American Principles Project

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External linksEdit

Official campaign websites