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2024 United States presidential election

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2024 United States presidential election

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win

Blank US Map (states only).svg
The number of electoral votes each state gets for the 2024 presidential election will be determined by the results of the 2020 Census.

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election to be run with population data from the 2020 census.

At present, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held to determine the nominees of the major parties. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[2] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election is held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.

The presidential election will occur simultaneously with Senate elections (33 of 100 seats plus any special elections) and House of Representatives elections (all 435 seats). Gubernatorial and state legislative elections will also be held in several states. For details of these other races, see 2024 United States elections.

Effects of the 2020 Census

The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[3][4] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States Census.[5]

The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect which also helps other candidates of that party win elections.[6] In 2020, although Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not experience a coattail effect from the win and fail to flip any state legislature chambers, and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship; thus allowing the Republican Party to have redistricting control of many seats in MT and NH.[7][8]This would instead give the Republican Party the option to gerrymander new districts in some states that are not controlled by the Democrats that would stay in effect until the next census, as was done by the REDMAP project after the 2010 Census.[9][10][8]

Issues unique to the 2024 election

COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which as of January 2021, has killed nearly 400,000 people in the United States (more than 1 in 1,000 Americans),[11] has had significant economic and societal effects, which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic was viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles due to the nationwide status of modern media.[12][13]

2020 election nominees

During his 2020 campaign, Biden was widely viewed as a "transition candidate" by the mainstream media, due to his political positions and age.[14][15] This led to significant media speculation about whether Biden will run in 2024.[16] The last time that an elected one-term incumbent president did not run for re-election was in 1880, when Rutherford B. Hayes did not seek re-election, while the last time that an incumbent president did not run for re-election when he was eligible to do so was either in 1968 when Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to stand for his party's nomination following the New Hampshire primary or in 1928 when Calvin Coolidge announced his intention not to stand for his party's nomination at a press conference in 1927 before the primaries started.[17]

If Trump decides to run in 2024, he would seek to become the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms. The last one-term president to campaign for a second non-consecutive term was Herbert Hoover, who after serving from 1929 to 1933 made runs in 1936 and 1940.[18] Trump's eligibility may change if the 2021 efforts to remove Donald Trump from office move forward, following the 2021 storming of the United States Capitol.

Candidates

Democratic Party

While Democrat Joe Biden is expected to be president heading into the 2024 election, he would be 82 years old at the conclusion of his first term. This has led to speculation that Biden will not seek a second term, which could cause a more competitive primary than would likely occur if Biden pursues his party's nomination as the incumbent president.[19] He had christened himself as a "transitional" candidate at multiple points on the 2020 campaign trail, raising suggestions in the media that Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be the party front-runner in 2024.[20] However, he has expressed some interest in running anyway.[21]

Potential candidates

Publicly expressed interest

As of January 2021, the following people have been subjects of significant speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Other potential candidates

As of January 2021, the following people have been subjects of significant speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Republican Party

Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden and was impeached by the House of Representatives, awaiting trial in the senate by 2021. He will be eligible to run again in the 2024 presidential election if he is to be acquitted in his second impeachment in 2021 or isn't disqualified from holding public office in the subsequent senate vote. If the senate doesn't disqualify Trump, he would be seeking to become the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms.[49][50]

Potential candidates

Publicly expressed interest

As of January 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Other potential candidates

As of January 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Libertarian Party

Potential candidates

Green Party

Filed paperwork

Potential candidates

Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Publicly expressed interest

Primary election polling

Democratic Party

Nationwide polling

[further explanation needed]

Graph of opinion polls conducted
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Stacey
Abrams
Joe
Biden
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Andrew
Cuomo
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Michelle
Obama
Beto
O'Rourke
Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez
Andrew
Yang
Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 445 (LV) ± 3.1% 2% 6% 5% 29% 2% 23% 6% 5%[b] 23%
Seven Letter Insight Nov 10–19, 2020 ~555 (V)[c] ± 2.5% 74% 28%[d]
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 461 (LV) 2% 8% 8% 18% 25% 6% 6%[e] 28%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 390 (LV) ± 2.8% 6% 6% 16% 21% 19% 6% 6% 9% 8% 3%[f]

Republican Party

Nationwide polling

[further explanation needed]

Graph of opinion polls conducted
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Tucker
Carlson
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Donald
Trump Jr.
Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Morning Consult/Politico Jan 8–11, 2021 595 (RV) ± 4% 6% 5% 16% 6% 2% 42% 6% 14%[g]
F. Luntz Jan 8–10, 2021 800 2% 14% 7% 34% 5% 4% 7% 27%[h] -
65% 35%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1%[i] 4% 4% 9% 4% 2% 53% 10%[j] 15%
1%[k] 7% 6% 20% 5% 3% 20% 16%[l] 22%
Morning Consult/Politico Nov 21–23, 2020 765 (RV) ± 2% 4% 4% 12% 4% 2% 53% 8% 14%[m]
HarrisX/The Hill Nov 17–19, 2020 599 (RV) ± 2.26% 75% 25%[n]
Seven Letter Insight[1] Nov 10–19, 2020 ~555 (V)[o] ± 2.5% 2% 6% 7% 19% 4% 35% 11% 7%[p]
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A) ± 3.09% 4%[i] 7% 4% 22% 8% 5% 45% 7%[q]
6%[k] 14% 6% 44% 11% 6% 10%[r]
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 449 (LV) 2% 5% 8% 30% 5% 2% 20% 8%[s] 21%
YouGov/Washington Examiner October 30, 2020 – (RV)[t] 38% 43%[u]
Echelon Insights Aug 14–18, 2020 423 (LV) 2% 4% 7% 26% 5% 12% 13%[v] 29%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 309 (LV) ± 2.8% 7% 8% 11% 31% 9% 5% 17% 12%[w]

Statewide polling

Florida primary

[further explanation needed]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Marco
Rubio
Rick
Scott
Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/News4JAX Released August 15, 2019 – (V)[x] 37% 26% 18% 19%
Georgia primary

[further explanation needed]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Chris
Christie
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School / Bet US Racing Dec 30, 2020 – Jan 3, 2021 1% 5% 3% - 2% 3% 73% 2% -
1% 15% 8% 36% 6% 3% 7% 24%
Maine primary
In Maine's 2nd congressional district

[further explanation needed]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Marco
Rubio
Ivanka
Trump
Donald
Trump Jr.
Other Undecided
January 3, 2023 Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.1% 12% 12% 30% 6% 7% 11% 21%
New Hampshire primary

[further explanation needed]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of New Hampshire Nov 19–23, 2020 533 (RV) ± 2.2% 73% 22%[y] 5%
North Carolina primary

[further explanation needed]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Nikki
Haley
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School / Bet US Racing Nov 30–December 2, 2020 3% 6% 3% 2% 76% 5% 6%
9% 9% 48% 9% 3% 4% 18%

Timeline

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
  3. ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
  4. ^ "Biden should step down after one term" with 28%
  5. ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
  6. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 2%; Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo, and Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott and Larry Hogan with 0%
  8. ^ Would not vote for a Republican again with 7%; Ivanka Trump with 4%; Chris Christie with 3%; Ron DeSantis, Krisi Noem, Mike Pompeo, and Rick Scott with 2%; Tom Cotton, Tulsi Gabbard, Josh Hawley, Larry Hogan, and Tim Scott with 1%; Greg Abbott and Kristi Noem with 0%
  9. ^ a b Standard VI response
  10. ^ John Kasich with 3%; Ron DeSantis with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Rick Scott and Tim Scott with 1%
  11. ^ a b If Donald Trump did not run
  12. ^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 2%; Mike Pompeo with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  13. ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Josh Hawley, Kristi Noem, Rick Scott and Tim Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan with 0%
  14. ^ Donald Trump should not run for president in 2024
  15. ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
  16. ^ Tim Scott and Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 1%
  17. ^ John Kasich, Mike Pompeo and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
  18. ^ Mike Pompeo and Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
  19. ^ Ron DeSantis and John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Rick Scott and Tim Scott with 1%
  20. ^ Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
  21. ^ Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Larry Hogan and Tim Scott with 1%; Josh Hawley, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  23. ^ Paul Ryan with 4%; Mike Pompeo and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
  24. ^ Not yet released
  25. ^ 22% do not want Trump run in the 2024 presidential election

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