After much trial and error, I have found a reliable strategy for reclaiming all Byzantine cores before 1454 in the dreaded 1.33 patch.
No save-scumming, bankruptcy, or merc spam required.
Prep Work (largely optional):
1. There are no required estate privileges, but I highly recommend giving the clergy the "religious diplomats" privilege and perhaps "expansionist zealotry," though I was able to do this strategy twice without the latter. I recommend maximizing nobility influence for manpower recovery. I also strongly recommend leaving at least one nobility privilege slot open for "strong duchies" because you should release Bulgaria after the war.
2. I recommend filling out your force limit. I did this with regular troops just to see if it was possible (it is), but you can also use the free company or any merc band you wish.
3. Ideally you would also conquer Epirus in a 1444 war for +1 force limit, but this is only practical if they have no allies. Not essential, but it is helpful.
4. Get a level 1 military advisor and turn on military focus. It's not essential that you get mil tech 4 for this war, but it is essential that the Ottomans don't get mil tech 4 before you do.
5. Ally Albania. You need Skanderbeg.
Alliances
I managed to do this strategy twice with the following allies with no failures:
Albania, The Knights, Trebizond, Wallachia
I also managed to do this strategy this set of allies twice with no failures:
Albania, The Knights, Trebizond, Serbia
Theoretically you can use Moldavia for this strategy, too, but they always got subjugated in the first few years of my campaign or were rivals with one or more of my allies.
I recommend not setting rivals until after the Ottoman war as your power projection will be inconsequential and rivalries can screw up your potential alliances. For instance, I had Albania ally Genoa in one of my games and I had rivalled Genoa so I could not ally Albania. The same interaction can occur with The Knights and Venice, so don't rival Venice.
Strategy:
You should ally Albania, the Knights, and at least one of the Orthodox powers that will readily ally you. However, you should secure at least FOUR alliances. This will put you over your relations limit, but given how long you will have these allies, you should only be paying <100 extra cumulative diplo power, which is far more preferable than near-bankruptcy or the other ways of cheesing the Ottomans. Ideally you will also ally a power to the east of the Ottomans like Trebizond or Karaman, but this is not necessary. You can also usually grab Crimea if you want to, but this is not necessary and they are fairly slow to ally and give favors.
Having these four allies (plus Athens) should deter the Ottomans from attacking you immediately. As long as the allies are comparable to the ones I just described, the Ottomans should instead attack Candar first (one time they attacked Karaman). To prepare for the war, curry favors and improve relations with all of your allies to get them to join an offensive war. Albania and The Knights have cores on the Ottomans and will join the war on the promise of land, so it not necessary to curry favors with them, which is why I favor them as allies. Note that Wallachia and Serbia have a truce with the Ottomans until 1449 so these powers really only serve to deter Ottoman aggression, though you can usually get them to join the war in 1449.
When the Ottomans declare war on Candar, wait a few months for them to move their armies and attrition their troops a bit. Then, when you feel the moment is right, declare a reconquest war on the Ottomans (I recommend making the war target Selanik). The Ottomans typically keep troops in Europe or move them into Europe too quickly for you to cheese the strait, but this is not an issue. With their troops divided in two wars, you and your allies should be able to take Gelibolu and defeat the Ottoman navy. Blockade the strait and then it's just a matter of hunting down the remaining Ottoman troops in Europe and sieging down the rest of their European provinces. This should give you enough warscore to take all of your cores, war reps, and a bunch of gold. I recommend not taking Edirne in the peace deal, since it is a useful war target for the second war. I also recommend releasing Bulgaria and enacting "strong duchies" and then breaking your alliance with The Knights to get under your relations limit. Alternatively, if the war drags past 1454, you can enact strong duchies and then immediately integrate Athens (be sure to improve relations with them during the war). Your peace deal should resemble the situation in the picture I've attached, which shows the ideal scenario. A healthy reserve of manpower, no loans (thanks to Ottoman gold), and no excess relations. Returning allies' cores is optional, since you will conquer them later and most allies are weak enough to improve trust with them if you don't want to lose the alliance.
Notes:
The AI is kind of dumb about supporting your armies. To ensure you get Skanderbeg in your army, walk over to the Albanians without allowing allies to attach their army to yours, then allow allies to attach their armies. Disable and enable this option until the Albanians follow you.
Make sure you have four allies of decent strength by 1447 or the Ottomans will likely attack you. Being over your relations limit with fairly strong allies will usually make the AI attack Candar first, but otherwise they will march on Constantinople. Unless you go way over your relations limit or secure a major ally like Hungary, the Ottomans will likely attack you within a year of defeating Candar, so make sure to declare war on them while they are still fighting. An offensive reconquest war is better than a defensive war since it gives a discount on cores.
Don't procrastinate on declaring the war. The Ottomans will likely get mil tech 4 before your allies do by virtue of their OP starting ruler, so I actually prefer to declare the war somewhat early so that there is parity in the tech levels of your coalition's forces. The Ottomans also have a lot more dev than you and your buddies and will likely gain manpower faster than you, so the longer you wait, the stronger they are. Plus there is the looming succession of Crimea, so the sooner you declare war the less likely it is that the Ottomans will get Crimea as a march. Don't worry about the Ottomans' allies. The worst case scenario is that they ally Tunis, usually they ally AQ. The Ottomans start guaranteeing Ragusa and frequently guarantee Wallachia or Serbia to spite Hungary, so they seldom ever have more than one ally in the early game.
Siege pips help, but they are not essential. Chances are that at least one of your allies, your monarch, or your heir will have at least one.
If the Ottomans come down hard on you, don't panic and don't pick any fights you aren't certain you will win (be sure there is not a second Ottoman force in the fog of war nearby!). Put the defensiveness edict on Constantinople and dance around the Ottoman armies sieging down provinces. They will break sieges to chase you occasionally and they are constantly reassessing where their troops are most useful. By making a dynamic battlefield, you reduce the Ottomans' commitment to sieges and they will typically go back across the Bosporus to finish Candar or any other eastern powers that invade in the absence of Ottoman troops.
Anyway, I have tried some variation of this strategy and had it work several times now, so I am confident that my results can be readily duplicated by competent players. If you guys have alternative strategies or find this doesn't work for you, let me know and I'll go back to the drawing board. I noticed a lot of people getting anxious about the new 1.33 AI not mothballing forts and being more aggressive against inferior armies, so I figured I'd get cracking on this. It only took a few hours, honestly. It's fairly RNG-proof since I built in flexibility.
No save-scumming, bankruptcy, or merc spam required.
Prep Work (largely optional):
1. There are no required estate privileges, but I highly recommend giving the clergy the "religious diplomats" privilege and perhaps "expansionist zealotry," though I was able to do this strategy twice without the latter. I recommend maximizing nobility influence for manpower recovery. I also strongly recommend leaving at least one nobility privilege slot open for "strong duchies" because you should release Bulgaria after the war.
2. I recommend filling out your force limit. I did this with regular troops just to see if it was possible (it is), but you can also use the free company or any merc band you wish.
3. Ideally you would also conquer Epirus in a 1444 war for +1 force limit, but this is only practical if they have no allies. Not essential, but it is helpful.
4. Get a level 1 military advisor and turn on military focus. It's not essential that you get mil tech 4 for this war, but it is essential that the Ottomans don't get mil tech 4 before you do.
5. Ally Albania. You need Skanderbeg.
Alliances
I managed to do this strategy twice with the following allies with no failures:
Albania, The Knights, Trebizond, Wallachia
I also managed to do this strategy this set of allies twice with no failures:
Albania, The Knights, Trebizond, Serbia
Theoretically you can use Moldavia for this strategy, too, but they always got subjugated in the first few years of my campaign or were rivals with one or more of my allies.
I recommend not setting rivals until after the Ottoman war as your power projection will be inconsequential and rivalries can screw up your potential alliances. For instance, I had Albania ally Genoa in one of my games and I had rivalled Genoa so I could not ally Albania. The same interaction can occur with The Knights and Venice, so don't rival Venice.
Strategy:
You should ally Albania, the Knights, and at least one of the Orthodox powers that will readily ally you. However, you should secure at least FOUR alliances. This will put you over your relations limit, but given how long you will have these allies, you should only be paying <100 extra cumulative diplo power, which is far more preferable than near-bankruptcy or the other ways of cheesing the Ottomans. Ideally you will also ally a power to the east of the Ottomans like Trebizond or Karaman, but this is not necessary. You can also usually grab Crimea if you want to, but this is not necessary and they are fairly slow to ally and give favors.
Having these four allies (plus Athens) should deter the Ottomans from attacking you immediately. As long as the allies are comparable to the ones I just described, the Ottomans should instead attack Candar first (one time they attacked Karaman). To prepare for the war, curry favors and improve relations with all of your allies to get them to join an offensive war. Albania and The Knights have cores on the Ottomans and will join the war on the promise of land, so it not necessary to curry favors with them, which is why I favor them as allies. Note that Wallachia and Serbia have a truce with the Ottomans until 1449 so these powers really only serve to deter Ottoman aggression, though you can usually get them to join the war in 1449.
When the Ottomans declare war on Candar, wait a few months for them to move their armies and attrition their troops a bit. Then, when you feel the moment is right, declare a reconquest war on the Ottomans (I recommend making the war target Selanik). The Ottomans typically keep troops in Europe or move them into Europe too quickly for you to cheese the strait, but this is not an issue. With their troops divided in two wars, you and your allies should be able to take Gelibolu and defeat the Ottoman navy. Blockade the strait and then it's just a matter of hunting down the remaining Ottoman troops in Europe and sieging down the rest of their European provinces. This should give you enough warscore to take all of your cores, war reps, and a bunch of gold. I recommend not taking Edirne in the peace deal, since it is a useful war target for the second war. I also recommend releasing Bulgaria and enacting "strong duchies" and then breaking your alliance with The Knights to get under your relations limit. Alternatively, if the war drags past 1454, you can enact strong duchies and then immediately integrate Athens (be sure to improve relations with them during the war). Your peace deal should resemble the situation in the picture I've attached, which shows the ideal scenario. A healthy reserve of manpower, no loans (thanks to Ottoman gold), and no excess relations. Returning allies' cores is optional, since you will conquer them later and most allies are weak enough to improve trust with them if you don't want to lose the alliance.
Notes:
The AI is kind of dumb about supporting your armies. To ensure you get Skanderbeg in your army, walk over to the Albanians without allowing allies to attach their army to yours, then allow allies to attach their armies. Disable and enable this option until the Albanians follow you.
Make sure you have four allies of decent strength by 1447 or the Ottomans will likely attack you. Being over your relations limit with fairly strong allies will usually make the AI attack Candar first, but otherwise they will march on Constantinople. Unless you go way over your relations limit or secure a major ally like Hungary, the Ottomans will likely attack you within a year of defeating Candar, so make sure to declare war on them while they are still fighting. An offensive reconquest war is better than a defensive war since it gives a discount on cores.
Don't procrastinate on declaring the war. The Ottomans will likely get mil tech 4 before your allies do by virtue of their OP starting ruler, so I actually prefer to declare the war somewhat early so that there is parity in the tech levels of your coalition's forces. The Ottomans also have a lot more dev than you and your buddies and will likely gain manpower faster than you, so the longer you wait, the stronger they are. Plus there is the looming succession of Crimea, so the sooner you declare war the less likely it is that the Ottomans will get Crimea as a march. Don't worry about the Ottomans' allies. The worst case scenario is that they ally Tunis, usually they ally AQ. The Ottomans start guaranteeing Ragusa and frequently guarantee Wallachia or Serbia to spite Hungary, so they seldom ever have more than one ally in the early game.
Siege pips help, but they are not essential. Chances are that at least one of your allies, your monarch, or your heir will have at least one.
If the Ottomans come down hard on you, don't panic and don't pick any fights you aren't certain you will win (be sure there is not a second Ottoman force in the fog of war nearby!). Put the defensiveness edict on Constantinople and dance around the Ottoman armies sieging down provinces. They will break sieges to chase you occasionally and they are constantly reassessing where their troops are most useful. By making a dynamic battlefield, you reduce the Ottomans' commitment to sieges and they will typically go back across the Bosporus to finish Candar or any other eastern powers that invade in the absence of Ottoman troops.
Anyway, I have tried some variation of this strategy and had it work several times now, so I am confident that my results can be readily duplicated by competent players. If you guys have alternative strategies or find this doesn't work for you, let me know and I'll go back to the drawing board. I noticed a lot of people getting anxious about the new 1.33 AI not mothballing forts and being more aggressive against inferior armies, so I figured I'd get cracking on this. It only took a few hours, honestly. It's fairly RNG-proof since I built in flexibility.
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