Playbook: The 2024 campaign heads to the House floor

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

CLICKER — “Trump’s Lawyers Are Making Major Mistakes,” by Ankush Khardori: “Put simply, [DONALD] TRUMP’s legal team has made several considerable, and at times baffling, missteps over the course of the trial that have increased the odds of a conviction. … Why? Most likely it’s not them, but him. Trump is the client, and he gets the final word on major decisions. So far as I can tell, this team has managed to stay on Trump’s good side by indulging — perhaps necessarily — his worst traits and instincts. It may be their downfall.”

SPOILER ALERT — “R.F.K. Jr. Is 2024’s X Factor, New Polls Show, Fueled by Young Voters and Social Media,” by NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Neil Vigdor: “Two of the groups that [ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.] performed strongest with in the [NYT/Siena] surveys — voters under 30 (18 percent support) and Latinos (14 percent) — have traditionally been strong Democratic constituencies, unnerving some party strategists. [JOE] BIDEN is also winning only half of Black voters in the multicandidate race.”

LET THE SHOW VOTES BEGIN — The House is back in session today after last week’s speakership drama, and there’s one piece of brass-tacks legislating on the agenda — final passage of a five-year FAA reauthorization, expected on the suspension calendar this evening. Otherwise, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is ready to move squarely into campaign mode now that the government is funded, weapons shipments are headed for Ukraine, and long-term extensions of aviation and foreign surveillance authorities are in place.

GOP leaders are immediately gearing up for a series of votes aimed at splitting House Democrats — and making the minority’s vulnerable incumbents squirm.

“We’ve done all the bipartisan things we have to do — what else is there to do the rest of the year?” one senior Democratic aide asked — then answered his own question: “Messaging bills that are intended to put our frontliners in a bad place.”

On Israel … House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES and his leadership team will have to decide how hard they want to enforce party discipline on the latest Israel-related bill headed to the floor, likely on Thursday. The Israel Security Assistance Support Act — which, yes, is binding — would effectively prevent Biden from freezing aid to Israel, as he threatened last week.

The vote comes after 26 pro-Israel Democrats wrote a letter to the White House last week expressing concern about pausing weapons transfers amid the war in Gaza. The aforementioned Democratic aide tells us to expect anywhere between 25 to 40 defections. (If you’re looking for a benchmark: Nearly four dozen Democrats broke ranks in February and voted for a GOP measure sending aid to Israel that party leaders opposed because it did not also send aid to Ukraine.)

Passage in the Democratic Senate is highly unlikely, but we hear the White House is still expected to phone fence-sitters this week to try to keep those numbers low — at least, low enough to sustain a veto should one be necessary. But the aide isn’t sure Jeffries will want to whip this vote given how divided the party is on the matter. A decision will be made later today.

Related read: “Democrats’ Split Over Israel Takes Center Stage in Tense Primary Debate,” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos

On Police Week … The nation pays tribute to America’s fallen law enforcement officers this week, and that also means an opportunity for political point-scoring on the Hill. Yes, this evening’s candlelight vigil hosted by Johnson on the House steps will be a bipartisan affair. But don’t expect that spirit of solemnity to continue throughout the week.

Among the measures Johnson has teed up are resolutions condemning “the Biden border crisis and the tremendous burdens law enforcement officers face as a result” as well as the “defund the police” movement. Other bills would mandate automatic deportation for migrants who assault cops, require the attorney general to study how “Biden’s border crisis impacts our law enforcement,” limit the ability of local D.C. officials to change criminal sentencing laws in Washington and expand the ability of off-duty and retired law enforcement officers to carry concealed weapons.

Needless to say, any frontline Democrats who vote against these measures will be risking some tough campaign ads this fall.

WHAT TO WATCH IN TODAY’S PRIMARIES — You wouldn’t typically think the balance of power in the Senate could conceivably rest on a Democratic primary in a state that Biden won by more than 30 points. Yet those are the stakes in Maryland today, where the entry of former GOP Gov. LARRY HOGAN into the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. BEN CARDIN has turbocharged the intrigue.

Maryland Democrats will choose today whether they want potentially make history by sending a Black woman to represent their state for the first time — or ease the pressure on national Democratic groups by choosing a wealthy white man who could, in theory, spend his own way to victory.

Most of the party establishment — including Gov. WES MOORE, Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN and former House Majority Leader STENY HOYER — have sided with the former, Prince George’s County Executive ANGELA ALSOBROOKS. But that hasn’t stopped Rep. DAVID TRONE from pouring more than $57 million into his campaign, making him the third largest self-funder in Senate history. (Winning the nomination would all but guarantee he’d go to No. 1, surpassing RICK SCOTT and JON CORZINE.)

Related read: “Dems’ ugliest Senate primary ends with a bad grand prize: Facing Larry Hogan,” by Burgess Everett, Nicholas Wu, Brakkton Booker and Daniella Diaz

It’s also worth keeping a close eye on the crowded race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. JOHN SARBANES, with many expecting a close finish between activist and former Capitol Police officer HARRY DUNN and state Sen. SARAH ELFRETH, who has the support of AIPAC’s super PAC. The results will also be an interesting test of the influence of the pro-Israel group’s operation, which has spent big on the race despite there being little daylight between Dunn and Elfreth on Israel policy.

Meanwhile in West Virginia … Gov. JIM JUSTICE is expected to waltz his way to the GOP nomination (and let’s face it, the general election) in the race to replace retiring Sen. JOE MANCHIN. But the real match-ups to follow are (1) a Republican gubernatorial primary that our colleague Steve Shepard calls “the most competitive — and ugliest — in the country,” between famous-named former state Del. MOORE CAPITO, AG PATRICK MORRISEY and Secretary of State MAC WARNER, and (2) Rep. CAROL MILLER’s primary challenge from former state Del. DERRICK EVANS, who was arrested following his participation in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT — “Blinken visits Ukraine to push U.S. support as Russia pummels Kharkiv,” by WaPo’s Michael Birnbaum in Kyiv: “Secretary of State ANTHONY BLINKEN met Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY on Tuesday in Ukraine’s capital, part of a mission to display Washington’s continued support for the country’s faltering war effort after months of congressional inaction choked off military assistance. …

“At the meeting with Blinken, Zelensky declared his ‘big appreciation’ for the U.S. aid. But he also said that Ukraine’s needs were urgent and immediate. ‘Air defense [is] the biggest deficit for us,’ he told Blinken. ‘Really we need today two Patriots for Kharkiv,’ he said, referring to the advanced U.S.-made antimissile system. … Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, is located so close to the Russian border — leaving so little response time to airstrikes — that some military experts question how useful the expensive Patriot system would be there.”

BREAKING — “BEIJING (AP) — Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN will make a two-day state visit to China this week, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, in the latest show of unity between the two authoritarian allies against the U.S.-led Western liberal global order.”

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of COURTNEY DIESEL O’DONNELL’s United Nations nomination, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m.

The House will meet at noon for morning and at 2 p.m. will take up various bills, with votes expected at 6:30 p.m.

3 things to watch …

  1. A year ago, hopes were still high on Capitol Hill that there was a bipartisan deal to be worked on energy permitting — clearing away regulatory hurdles standing in the way of major new infrastructure projects, such as badly needed transmission lines. Manchin wanted a permitting deal in return for his support for the Inflation Reduction Act, and he continues to work on it in his final months in the Senate. But following a crucial Federal Energy Regulatory Commission vote yesterday, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said it would be “virtually impossible to get anything done” on the Hill due to GOP opposition, POLITICO’s E&E News’ Kelsey Brugger reports.
  2. We noted yesterday that fiscal 2025 appropriations season is upon us. Well, fiscal 2025 NDAA season is even more upon us. House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) released a draft National Defense Authorization Act yesterday ahead of an expected markup next week, and as Connor O’Brien notes, it contains an object lesson in why representation matters: A billion-dollar shift in the naval shipbuilding plan adds one Virginia-class submarine and deletes, for now, one Constellation-class frigate, which was to be built in the district of now-retired HASC member MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.). More for Pros
  3. Federal prosecutors appear to be putting Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (D-Texas) in a prosecutorial vise. A third person with ties to the bribery case filed last week against Cuellar and wife IMELDA has pleaded guilty, according to newly unsealed court documents. IRADA AKHOUNDOVA admitted to illegally acting as an agent of the Azerbaijani government; Cuellar’s former campaign manager and another political consultant have also pleaded guilty to money-laundering charges. The plea deals suggest prosecutors have secured the cooperation of key witnesses against the Cuellars, who maintain their innocence. More from the Texas Tribune

At the White House

Biden will deliver remarks on his agenda to promote American investments and jobs this afternoon. In the evening, he will speak at the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies’ 30th Annual Gala.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will join SHERRI SHEPHERD in New York City for an appearance on “Sherri.” Later, she will participate in multiple campaign events and will depart en route to Washington in the evening.

PLAYBOOK READS

TRUMP CARDS

TRUMP TRIAL LATEST — Taking the stand in his former boss’ hush money trial yesterday, former Trump attorney MICHAEL COHEN quickly implicated Donald Trump as the instigator in the alleged plot to pay off adult film star STORMY DANIELS over her allegations of an affair. What was more surprising, Kyle Cheney, Erica Orden and Ben Feuerherd report, is the version of Cohen who made those accusations: a “mild-mannered, self-deprecating, just-the-facts-ma’am” type whose “reinvention … could define and even determine the outcome of Trump’s criminal trial.”

“Cohen, while recasting himself, also revealed perhaps the most damaging bit of evidence yet: a meeting just days before Trump assumed the Oval Office, in which, according to Cohen, Trump reviewed and endorsed a plan to reimburse him for paying off Daniels. … That is a critical piece of testimony because the alleged reimbursement scheme — and records related to it — are at the crux of the 34 felony charges against Trump.”

Among other “tantalizing pieces of testimony,” they write: “Cohen told jurors that when he sought to negotiate a deal with Daniels, Trump instructed him to ‘just get past the election, because if I win, it will have no relevance because I’ll be president, and if I lose, no one will care.’”

More key moments: “Cohen was offered the job of assistant White House counsel. He wanted chief of staff instead” … “Shortly after the 2016 election, Trump reduced Cohen’s bonus. Cohen was livid”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The Biden administration has assessed that the Israeli military has massed sufficient forces outside Rafah to launch a full-scale incursion into the southern Gaza city in the coming days, CNN’s MJ Lee and Kylie Atwood report. A senior administration official also said “Israel has not come anywhere close to making adequate preparations — including building infrastructure related to food, hygiene and shelter — ahead of potentially evacuating more than one million Gazans” who now reside there.

Red line watch: “‘The president was clear that he would not supply certain offensive weapons for such an operation were to occur,’ national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters at the White House Monday. ‘It has not yet occurred.’”

Reality on the ground: Reuters’ Nidal Al-Mughrabi reports this morning that the Israel Defense Forces tanks have been spotted moving deeper into Rafah, moving into some residential areas on the city’s eastern flank, as residents try to evacuate into scarce areas of refuge, “including Al-Mawasi, a sandy strip bordering the coast that Israel has designated as a humanitarian area” but which “lacks … facilities to host an influx of displaced people.”

Related reads: “Misery deepens in Gaza’s Rafah as Israeli troops press operation,” by AP’s Wafaa Shurafa, Joseph Krauss and Samy Magdy … “US Army intel officer resigns over US Gaza war policy and support for Israel,” by CNN’s Oren Liebermann

CONGRESS

VOIR DIRE DIARIES — As indicted Sen. BOB MENENDEZ enters his second day of jury selection at his federal corruption trial in NYC, Ry Rivard reports how the jury selection process for the New Jersey Democrat’s trial has been extended due to logistical reasons rather than political ones: “[U]nlike the trial of Donald Trump, happening just down the street, few of the people in the courtroom seem to have strong feelings about the man himself. … Part of that has to do with Trump’s omnipresent polarization of the American political scene, while Menendez, for all his power in New Jersey and in Washington, is not a household name.”

FIGHT ON, FIGHT ON TILL YOU HAVE WON — “Senator will block RFK site bill unless team honors family of logo creator,” by WaPo’s Sam Fortier: Sen. STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) “will demand ‘that the new [Commanders] team leadership and the NFL … find a way to properly honor the history of the logo and heritage of our tribal nations, and to rededicate the organization as an advocate for Indian Country.’ … Daines is ‘NOT calling for the return of the former team name which has become increasingly controversial, especially in Indian Country.’”

2024 WATCH

EV DOES IT — The fight to win over Midwestern voters is fueling a face-off between Trump and Biden over Chinese electric vehicles, Gavin Bade reports this morning. While Trump and his advisers are planning to impose steep auto tariffs on Mexico if it does not agree to halt the shipping of electric vehicles into the U.S., “Biden on Tuesday will call for a quadrupling of tariffs on electric vehicles from China, along with higher duties on metals and other clean energy products.”

A tale of two candidates: Trump’s plan to impose the tariffs “would amount to a major escalation of trade conflicts with both Beijing and Mexico City that could upend auto supply chains across the continent.” But Biden’s proposal “is expected to have only muted effects on the U.S. economy, since the U.S. imports relatively few electric vehicles or the other products subject to tariffs from China itself today,” Gavin writes.

Coming attractions: “No matter who prevails in November, the issue of auto tariffs is expected to be a major point of contention when the U.S., Mexico and Canada meet in 2026 to renegotiate the free trade deal Trump helped broker in his first term.”

TAKIN’ NAMES — RFK Jr.’s campaign has officially turned in more than twice the signatures needed to qualify for the 2024 presidential ballot in the Lone Star State, Brittany Gibson and Peder Schaefer report from Austin.

Related read: “Nicole Shanahan Ventures Onto the Stump for Kennedy,” by NYT’s Chris Cameron

More top reads:

  • You’ve got a friend in me: During his 2022 reelection campaign, Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.) tried his best to steer clear of Joe Biden. Now, the president and the Georgia senator are working together towards a repeat Democratic victory in the Peach State come November, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein reports.
  • The anti-freakout: In the wake of yesterday’s dismal NYT-Siena polling, the Biden campaign insists it still has time to sell the president’s accomplishments to the public and argue that the president, like voters, “is not satisfied with business as usual,” either, NYT’s Katie Rogers reports.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

BALLOT BATTLES — The Wisconsin Supreme Court indicated yesterday it is poised to reverse a 2022 ruling that outlawed ballot drop boxes ahead of the November election, WaPo’s Patrick Marley report: “A decision is expected in the case by next month. … Liberal Justice JILL KAROFSKY cited an unexpected rationale for overturning the ban on drop boxes — the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision reversing the constitutional right to seek an abortion.”

WHAT CYNTHIA LUMMIS IS READING — “Biden blocks Chinese-backed crypto mining firm from land ownership near Wyoming missile base,” by AP’s Fatima Hussein and Zeke Miller

DEEP IN THE HEART — “How a Texas man is testing out-of-state abortions by asking a court to subpoena his ex-partner,” by AP’s Acacia Coronado

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

GOING NUCLEAR — Biden signed a bipartisan ban on an estimated $1 billion in yearly Russian uranium imports yesterday, WaPo’s Maxine Joselow reports: “American companies pay around $1 billion a year for enriched uranium from Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear power conglomerate. … [The bill] will provide waivers until 2028 for utilities that would be forced to shut down nuclear reactors once Russian supplies are cut off. The bill also frees up $2.7 billion passed in previous legislation to build out the domestic uranium processing industry.”

Related read: “The rest of the world wants the Ukraine war to go away. Putin has other ideas,” by CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh

BEHIND THE WITHDRAWAL — “U.S. threats led to rupture of vital military ties, Nigerien leader says,” by WaPo’s Rachael Chason in Niamey, Niger

JUDICIARY SQUARE

A BRAVE NEW WORLD — “Justice Department vows crackdown on election-related threats,” by Josh Gerstein: “With a close-fought presidential campaign looming in November, high-ranking federal officials convened at DOJ headquarters to warn that threats of violence related to the election will be pursued aggressively and prosecutors will seek extra punishment in cases involving artificial intelligence and other digital advances.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Mike Gallagher is launching his post-Congress career at a hometown tech company.

Ben Hall discussed his brush with death while reporting in Ukraine.

Tony Gonzales is getting salsa-y in his attacks on Brandon Herrera.

Ron DeSantis says his wife, Casey, has “zero interest” in running for office.

IN MEMORIAM — “Christopher Edley Jr., Civil Rights Expert Heard by Presidents, Dies at 71,” by NYT’s Clay Risen: “In the late 1970s, he worked for the White House domestic policy staff, specializing on issues like food stamps, child welfare and disability for President Jimmy Carter. Over a decade later, he took a leave from Harvard to be an associate director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Clinton. Both roles came after working as a top Democratic campaign adviser, a role he also performed for Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, Howard Dean and Barack Obama.”

TRANSITIONS — Audrey Cook is now press secretary for Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.). She previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). … Rachel Glennerster will be president of The Center for Global Development. She previously has been executive director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab. … Miro Korenha is now senior director of CEO Communications at Conservation International. She previously served as the head of executive comms at the Wildlife Conservation Society and is a NOAA alum. …

… Matt Smith is now comms director for Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.). He previously was a director at Xenophon Strategies and is a James Comer alum. … Ryan Propis is now VP of security and facilitation at the U.S. Travel Association. He previously was deputy staff director and general counsel for the House Homeland Security GOP.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Jahan Wilcox, founder of JRW Strategies and a Trump EPA alum, and Morgan Pearson, who works on Capitol operations for U.S. Senate Sergeant at Arms, got married on Saturday at St. Boniface Catholic Church in Louisville, Kentucky, with a reception at Muhammad Ali Museum. The reception featured nine different batches of bourbon, with a prayer by James Hohmann and speeches from Mike Wilcox, Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) and Alex Conant. The couple met on Bumble. SPOTTED: Maureen Braun, Caitlin Conant, Annie Linskey, Colin Reed, Lance Trover, Mike Zolnierowicz, Chris Maloney, Joe Pounder, Jeff Sadosky, Ryan Jackson, Molly Block, Chris Maloney, Tim Edson, Ben Mitchell, Kris Anderson, Amanda Henneberg, Ada Furciniti and Mark McLaughlin. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) (7-0) … Susie Wiles … Tom Donilon of O’Melveny & Myers … former Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) … POLITICO’s Jason Beeferman and David Guide … Emily Golden … J.B. Poersch of Senate Majority PAC … ABC’s Karen Travers … NBC’s David Gelles … Semafor’s Kadia Goba … Jon Vogel of MVAR Media … Sydney Thomas Stubbs of Americans for Prosperity … Aneiry Batista … State Department’s Akhil Bery … former Reps. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.), Erik Paulsen (R-Minn.), Mimi Walters (R-Calif.) and Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) … former DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen Cassie Scher of Rational 360 … Bloomberg’s Josh Eidelson … Rob Levinson … Kara Allen … Judith Barnett … Brian Canfield … Elizabeth Mulkey … Jill Stein … Caleb Randall-Bodman of QuestEnd Advisors … Audrey Henson … Howard Wolfson … Erwin Chemerinsky … Mark Zuckerberg (4-0) … Elizabeth Harnik … Sam Newton … Jesse Meisenhelter

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.