Seventeen players received Rookie of the Year votes last season. Only three of them are healthy and playing better this year. Gunnar Henderson, of course, is one of them.
The Orioles shortstop is bucking a trend so far this season. The dreaded sophomore slump has hit many second-year players across MLB — from Arizona’s Corbin Carroll to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ James Outman to Colorado’s Nolan Jones. They have each posted an OPS below .600 through the first six weeks of the season.
But Henderson, whose 12 home runs are tied for the second most in baseball, isn’t the only player in Baltimore who is sidestepping the sophomore slump.
Infielder Jordan Westburg has emerged as an everyday player and one of the toughest at-bats in a lineup that leads MLB in home runs. Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, while in the middle of what is expected to be a brief stint on the injured list, has looked like the pitcher he was in the second half last season when he was among the best in baseball. And Colton Cowser, while technically a rookie, has adjusted to big league pitching this year after struggling against it last summer.
“The league is constantly trying to find ways to beat you,” said catcher James McCann, an 11-year veteran. “You have to make those adjustments. One thing that I think back to is the prep work we have here in the cage and the work each individual in here does pregame, postgame, watching video, everything — it’s a testament to how they’re able to make those adjustments.”
Over the past few years, Baltimore’s youngsters have typically struggled to begin their careers — from Adley Rutschman to Henderson to Cowser — before breaking out. But those same players have done well at making the necessary changes to avoid a dropoff in their second or third years.
Corbin Burnes, the most veteran member of the Orioles’ rotation, said such slumps might be more prevalent in the game today because of the amount of data at the big league level.
“There isn’t that much on a first-year guy,” he said. “Teams are making their reports, crunching the numbers as you’re coming up in the big leagues. Once they kind of figure out what you do, whether it’s on the mound or swing at the plate, the league will start to make that adjustment.”
The Orioles saw firsthand this weekend what an early sophomore slump can look like. Carroll was one of the best players in baseball last season and won the National League Rookie of the Year Award. In fact, he was better than Henderson. At 22 years old, the Diamondbacks outfielder slashed .285/.362/.506 — good for an .868 OPS — with 30 doubles, 10 triples, 25 homers and 54 stolen bases.
But he looks like a radically different player this year. Carroll entered Sunday’s series finale slashing a meager .195/.284/.255 for a .539 OPS. He’s hit only two home runs after smacking 25 last year.
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said each player’s slump is different, but he pointed to the nasty stuff from pitchers across the league as to why some young hitters are scuffling once opposing teams learn how to attack them.
“I think it’s really hard to hit in the big leagues right now,” he said. “In the age with the information available right now with the coaches and the prep work against hitters to try to get guys out, it’s unlike ever before. I think pitchers’ stuff is better than it’s ever been.”
Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting last year behind Henderson after posting a 2.98 ERA. Through eight starts, Bibee has a 4.91 ERA with only one outing of at least six innings.
Outman finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting after posting a .790 OPS. Through Saturday, he’s hitting .155 with a .526 OPS. Jones finished fourth with a .297 average and 20 homers. He’s hitting .170 this year with just one long ball.
Houston Astros catcher Yainer Diaz has a .712 OPS with a home run rate one-third of what it was last year. Minnesota Twins shortstop Edouard Julien is hitting .215 with a 34.3% strikeout rate after posting a .840 OPS last year. Cincinnati Reds outfielder Spencer Steer is having a solid year, but his OPS is about 50 points worse than what he posted last year. And the following sophomores are either on the IL or have spent time on the shelf this season: Boston’s Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida, Texas’ Josh Jung, Miami’s Eury Pérez, San Francisco’s Patrick Bailey, New York Mets’ Kodai Senga and Cincinnati’s Matt McLain.
In addition to Henderson, the only players to receive a Rookie of the Year vote last year and perform better so far this season while remaining healthy are Cincinnati superstar Elly De La Cruz and New York Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe. De La Cruz’s loud tools have made noise this year with a .910 OPS, nine homers and 25 stolen bases entering Sunday. Volpe, a Gold Glove Award winner in 2023, has boosted his OPS by about 100 points.
A year ago, Henderson was hitting .170 through the first 100 at-bats of his first full big league season. He broke out of that early slump to become the Orioles’ best player, and he’s accentuated his case for such status this season. The 22-year-old is slashing .278/.355/.583 — good for a team-leading .938 OPS — and is a legitimate candidate for AL Most Valuable Player.
Westburg, who hit his second walk-off Saturday, sports a .304 average with six homers after posting a .715 OPS and only three long balls in 68 games in 2023. Cowser hit .115 in 26 games last year but established himself in April as the AL Rookie of the Month. The 24-year-old has an .847 OPS and six homers. Rodriguez, who could return from the IL this week, won four of his six starts, allowing two or fewer runs in five of them.
Before Burnes became a perennial Cy Young contender, he went through a brutal sophomore slump. He burst onto the scene in 2018 with the Milwaukee Brewers but followed that with an 8.82 ERA in 2019.
“I think it’s just the behind-the-scenes work that a lot of the staff does to help those guys make adjustments when they see something early on,” Burnes said on the success of the Orioles’ sophomores. “I’ve talked to Grayson a lot. Now you have more guys who aren’t afraid to speak up and ask veterans who have done it for a long time to make those adjustments and prevent it from being a six-month-long scuffle that I went through in 2019.”
Burnes and McCann both said life as a big leaguer is a constant chess match — balancing your own skill set and the opponent’s to try to win the one-on-one matchup between hitter and pitcher. The players who can adjust the quickest normally win.
If the start of this season is any indication, the Orioles’ sophomores are on the right path.
“The learning curve happens your entire career,” McCann said. “The league is going to exploit holes, and you have to find a way to adjust. The really, really good ones make those adjustments very quickly. The good players, it takes time. And the players who aren’t able to stick don’t make them.”
What’s to come?
The Orioles (26-13) wrap up their nine-game homestand this week with three against the Toronto Blue Jays — Baltimore’s first against its division rival this season — and three versus the Seattle Mariners.
If the Orioles take at least one game from the Blue Jays, they’ll extend their AL-record streak without being swept in the regular season to 105 — although the club was swept out of the postseason last year — to tie the 1903-05 New York Giants. Another victory over the Mariners would see Baltimore pass the Giants for third on MLB’s all-time list.
What was good?
During Anthony Santander’s eight-year career with the Orioles, the right fielder has normally struggled early in the season. His .666 career March/April OPS is nearly 100 points worse than his career figure.
But it’s no longer April, and, therefore, Santander is no longer slumping. Last week, he was the only Orioles regular without five home runs. Now, after three homers in his past six games, he’s second on the team behind Henderson with seven, including his game-tying solo shot in Saturday’s come-from-behind win.
Santander was Baltimore’s home run leader in 2022 and tied with Henderson for the top spot in 2023. If he keeps this up, he could make it a competitive race once again.
What wasn’t?
Hyde said before Saturday’s game that center fielder Cedric Mullins was “pressing big-time.” The former All-Star is trapped in a 5-for-53 slump as he’s seen his average drop to .192.
His excellent center field defense and rare combination of speed and power (six stolen bases and six homers) will likely provide him the opportunity to work out of his drought, but if it continues, it could lead to more playing time for outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad or Austin Hays, who could return from the IL soon.
On the farm
Jackson Holliday had 30 plate appearances last week. He reached base safely in half of them, walking seven times and tallying eight hits.
Holliday’s big league slump continued for two games in Triple-A after his late-April demotion before he got back to showing why he’s baseball’s best prospect with the Norfolk Tides. Since April 30, the 20-year-old is 13-for-45 (.288) with 15 walks against 12 strikeouts. It will be hard to tell when Holliday is ready to return, but the strikeout-to-walk numbers are encouraging after he struck out in half of his plate appearances during his brief stint in the majors.
Blue Jays at Orioles
Monday, 6:35 p.m.
TV: MASN
Radio: 97.9 FM, 101.5 FM, 1090 AM
