Lithuania’s incumbent Nauseda ahead in presidential election dominated by Russian fears - The Globe and Mail
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A woman casts her vote during a presidential election in Vilnius, Lithuania on May 12.Ints Kalnins/Reuters

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda appeared on track to secure his second term in office in Sunday’s election, partial results showed, following a campaign focusing on security concerns across the Baltics amid Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Results from over 60% of ballots counted showed Nauseda, 59, winning 46% of the vote, just short of the 50% he would need to ensure re-election in the first round of voting. In second place was Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, 49, with 16% of ballots.

If no candidate wins more than 50%, which is likely according to pre-election opinion surveys, a run-off vote will be held on May 26.

Speaking to reporters after voting ended, Nauseda pledged to keep up pressure on the country’s western allies for increased military support for Ukraine.

“Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky already said it all. They don’t need our declarations of good will, they are of no use in a fight – they need air defences … Until they have air defences, Ukraine will stay vulnerable,” he said.

Across the region, voters are worried the Baltics, once ruled from Moscow but now members of the NATO military alliance and the European Union, could be the targets of Russian aggression in the future.

Just over half of Lithuanians believe a Russian attack is possible or even very likely, an ELTA/Baltijos Tyrimai poll found. Lithuanian intelligence said in March Russia was on track to strengthen its military capabilities along its border with NATO.

Moscow has regularly dismissed Western suggestions that it might consider an attack on a NATO member as nonsense.

Still, tensions are running high in the region. Most of the candidates running in Sunday’s election, including Simonyte and Nauseda, have told the national broadcaster they keep food stockpiles at home in case of a military conflict.

“I am doing all I can to make sure it will not be needed,” Nauseda said during a televised debate.

Both Nauseda and Simonyte support increasing defence spending to at least 3% of Lithuania’s gross domestic product, from the 2.75% planned for this year, to pay for the modernization of its army and infrastructure to support a brigade of German troops, and their families, that will be deployed in Lithuania and combat-ready from 2027.

While agreeing on Russia policy, the two top candidates differ on issues such as same-sex civil partnerships, which Nauseda opposes, and have a history of acrimonious bickering and refusing to speak to each other.

Lithuania’s president has a semi-executive role, which includes heading the armed forces and chairing the supreme defence and national security policy body, and represents the country at the European Union and NATO summits.

In tandem with the government, the president sets foreign and security policy, can veto laws and has a say in the appointment of key officials such as judges, the chief prosecutor, the chief of defence and head of the central bank.

In 2019, Nauseda won a presidential election run-off against Simonyte, a former finance minister, with 66% of the vote.

Simonyte is also facing a tough test in a general election this October, as government parties trail in the polls.

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