Many people laughed at the Los Angeles Lakers’ jubilance for winning the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament back in December, with the team’s celebration including a banner in the rafters of Crypto.com arena.
However, while that title may have been beneath the fans of a franchise with 17 real championships and failed to predict future success for the Lakers, it turned out to be much more prophetic for the tournament runners-up still seeking their first NBA title.
It’s been an uneven season for the Indiana Pacers, but they’ve had some incredible highs, which include that run through the tournament. And now, they’re a series away from advancing to the NBA Finals.
Unfortunately, this run is likely to come up just short of the finish line too. The Pacers will need a miracle to overcome +600 odds at BetMGM to beat the Boston Celtics.
The biggest conference finals underdog since the San Antonio Spurs in 2017, Indiana has already benefitted from a few miracles to reach this point. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard were injured for their first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks. And in the second round, the New York Knicks’ best players started dropping like flies too.
If the Boston Celtics’ don’t suffer more injuries beyond the recovering Kristaps Porzingis, this is where Indiana’s good fortune will run out. The Celtics are a much more complete team than any of those prior opponents, and they will exploit Indiana’s defensive weaknesses.
The Pacers and Celtics have the NBA’s top-two ranked offenses in both the regular season and playoffs, but only one of these teams have a top-two defense to match, and it’s the Celtics. Indiana’s defense allowed 117.6 points per 100 possessions in the regular season, which ranked bottom-seven in the NBA, and it’s been worse in the playoffs.
Between Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, a bevy of complimentary role players, and even Porzingis, who is expected back at some point after Game 2, the Celtics simply have too many weapons for a poor defense to stop.
In how many games will the series end?
- 4 games (+240): Celtics 4-0 (+270), Pacers 4-0 (+8000)
- 5 games (+150): Celtics 4-1 (+180), Pacers 4-1 (+3500)
- 6 games (+320): Celtics 4-2 (+400), Pacers 4-2 (+1400)
- 7 games (+450): Celtics 4-3 (+500), Pacers 4-3 (+2000)
That said, Indiana’s offense is certainly explosive enough that it might just find away to outscore the Celtics a couple times. Especially on nights when Boston isn’t shooting the three as well as its opponent, as we saw in Game 2 losses to the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers. For that reason, I’ll give Indiana a couple games in defeat and take the +400 odds for Boston to win 4-2.
Between the hot shooting of Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard and others, the Pacers have been the best three-point shooting team in these playoffs.
Eastern Conference MVP
Finally, I’m going with a long-shot for my MVP pick and taking Jrue Holiday at +8000. Though Jayson Tatum is a heavy favorite at -200 and Jaylen Brown is the only other player with odds shorter than 10-1, I’m looking at Holiday because of how he can impact the game on the defensive side of the ball.
As the likely primary defender on Haliburton, he has a chance to take Indiana’s best scorer and facilitator out of the game, while also contributing on the offensive end. That should give him a better chance than the odds suggest.
