NEGOTIATIONS
Daily Reminder: The Verkhovna Rada passed legislation precluding territorial concessions for the sake of peace.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs placed Zelenskiy on the “wanted” list for crimes committed under the Criminal Code. Former president Poroshenko (and other government “elites”) also made the list. This step necessarily means that criminal cases have been opened against both men—and that negotiations with them may not be held, as they are suspects in criminal cases.
The Council of Presidents of the UN General Assembly has called for the launch of a peace process to resolve the conflict in Ukraine on the basis of the Istanbul 2022 agreement (that UA MFAKuleba says never existed). That document provides for Ukraine's neutrality, according to a statement adopted after the Council's meeting in Qatar.
A call was also issued for the immediate exchange of prisoners and to seek what steps can be taken to prevent any further escalations.
SANCTIONS, DIPLOMACY & AID
Russia’s take on US human rights: https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/doklady/1946097/?lang=en
Afghanistan is proposing a “hub” for trading Russian oil within its territory, developed in cooperation with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The goal would be to leverage the region's strategic geographical location to facilitate oil supplies to South Asian countries. The three countries’ representatives met recently to discuss the necessary rail infrastructure to connect South Asia with the Persian Gulf. The hub would have a million-ton capacity and serve Pakistan and other regional countries lacking oil fields of their own.
Baltics fear mongering: The deputy head of GUR said "The Russians will take the Baltic states in seven days. NATO's response time is 10 days”.
The deputy head of GUR assumes that RF wants the Baltics back—when they would be an oppositionist thorn in Moscow’s side if re-assimilated. The only advantages they provide are geographical: increased shoreline and a direct overland path to Kaliningrad. As these are not insurmountable problems now, the heartburn just doesn’t seem worthwhile.
China: First reports came out that China was Russia’s “Nº 1” supplier of arms. Now the story is that Russia is going to help China launch an attack on Taiwan. “This is the first time we've seen China and Russia cooperating on Taiwan and acknowledging that this is a place where China definitely wants Russia to cooperate with them, and we don't see any reason why they wouldn't,” Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, told Congress
US officials are somehow surprised that China has declined US overtures to resume arms control negotiations. China’s Embassy spokesman in DC, Liu Penyu, said the US should "stop its megaphone diplomacy" and instead called on "countries with large nuclear arsenals" to "significantly and substantially" reduce their own nuclear arsenals for further arms control negotiations.
The US has an estimated 5500 nuclear warheads to China’s 350.
France: An Ipsos poll conducted of men aged 18-25 revealed that just over half (51%) are ready to “defend France” by fighting in Ukraine. Of that willing group, 17% said “definitely” and 34% said “maybe”.
Ireland: A jury acquitted a man who rammed the gates of the Russian Embassy in Dublin with a truck two years ago. He testified that he did so as a protest against the SMO and “to put pressure on Moscow”. He had been charged with dangerous driving and is still liable for criminal damages in the amount of €13,250.
WAR OF ATTRITION
MOD Shoigu: Yesterday, Kiev lost as many as 1220 service members to death or injury. An illumination and guidance radar with two launchers of the S-300PT anti-aircraft missile system and a launcher of the IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile system manufactured in Germany were destroyed. Air defense shot down 40 UAVs and three French-made Hammer guided bombs. The seventh US-supplied Abrams tank was destroyed in the Avdeevka sector, along with a Bradley IFV, both confirmed by video.
Whereas the US claims four Russian aircraft in Alaskan airspace, two Tu-95 long-range bombers made a routine flight over international waters of the Bering Sea near Alaska.
Now Zelenskiy wants American Reaper drones. The US is hesitant to send them, as “Russia might shoot them down”. ~Politico
Troubles with Azov: The commander of the Azov brigade, Denis Prokopenko, says that Zelenskiy’s office twice refused to post an amendment Azov had drafted to Rep. John Conyers’ legislation that designates Azov as “openly neo-Nazi” (which it is) and bars the provision of US-transferred weapons to Ukraine to them.
Ukrainian outlet RezidentUA states that the order to not issue weapons to Azov actually came from Zelenskiy himself. He is afraid that they will stage a coup against him: “On Bankova [Street], they want to disband all autonomous units, in this way to exclude the possibility of a military coup”.
Apparently, Ukraine’s “war on gambling addition” isn’t going so well. Zelenskiy decreed that pawn shops are henceforth prohibited from accepting drones, thermal imagers and other military property from customers. It is generally thought that online gamblers are hocking military equipment in order to pay their debts. Previously, the regime averred that they were selling the goods on the Dark Web.
“Experts” at the publication Foreign Affairs write that Ukraine should be building additional brigades for a fall campaign. Military experts say that is something that takes two to three years—not two to three months. It would be impossible for Kiev to fully prepare soldiers, especially when it doesn’t have the leadership to train them.
Kupyansk: The storming of Kislovka continues as does fighting in both Kotlyarovka and east of Terny. Reports are beginning to filter in that Kotlyarovka has been liberated; RF’s 47th Tank Division broke through “several lines of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”. The men of the 47th posted a video, but RF MOD confirmation is pending. If true, this puts Russian forces only 23km (14mi) from the city of Kupyansk.
Donetsk direction: West of Avdeevka, in the Pokrovskoye sector, Russian soldiers are conducting “flanking strikes: at Pervomaisk and Arkhangelskoye. Geolocated footage released yesterday afternoon showed Ukrainians retreating to fortifications beyond Kalinovsky Pond in Arkhangelskoye (green arrow on the map below); the area shown in purple is the likely abandoned territory, with the pond drawn in, in blue. The town is about to fall—if it hasn’t already—soldiers of the 132nd Gorlovskaya Brigade of the 1st AK planted the Russian flag on the northwestern outskirts of town.
RFAF are also expanding their zone of control on the Ocheretino ledge.
Along the Semyonovka - Berdychi line, Russian troops continue their westward push. There are roughly 5km of farm fields between them and the villages of Novosyolovka-1 and Novopokrovskoye—and AFU have not built sufficiently adequate defenses yet to prevent them from reaching those towns.
AFU is pulling all available reinforcements to Chasov Yar, having declared the city another “symbol of resistance”. Heavy combat is ongoing. Russians advanced further in the Deciduous Forest, taking another chunk of territory 500m wide by 200m deep. Within the city, Russian troops have reached the outermost houses at the edge of town. They report that they are “pressing the enemy from three directions”: the northern and southern flanks and from the east.
South Donetsk: RFAF attacked Urozhainoye and advanced another 300m; AFU’s troop rotation was disrupted. Fighting resumed at Novomikhailovka and RFAF turned up the heat at Paraskovievka. Field reports indicate further Russian successes in the area of Krasnogorovka’s refractory plant.
Zaporozhye: Small infantry groups are engaged in Rabotino and northwest of Verbovoye. AFU shelled Tokmak to the south, killing four civilians whose apartment building was struck.
Kherson: Actions and counter-actions continue to intensify on the river islands. Artillery, drones, the use of EW against drones and high-precision munitions against personnel concentrations are all coming into play.
Crimea, RF: Four ATACMS operational-tactical missiles were destroyed during the night.
Dnepropetrovsk: Men in the region who haven’t updated their information with the recruiting offices are finding they can only withdraw 100 hryvnias from ATM machines. That’s about $2.50. Along with the cash disbursement, the account holder receives a corresponding message as to why his account is restricted. Why this is happening now is unclear; the deadline for updating registrations is May 18.
Odessa: City residents are complaining that AFU are parking their tanks and armored vehicles between civilian-occupied buildings (making them potential targets of aerial strikes).
Transcarpathia (far western Ukraine): So-called gypsies (Roma) were fired on by military recruiters in a video posted to social media. The recruiters had “volunteered” two Roma men, causing others to descend from throughout the district. They broke the gate to the recruiters’ post; the recruiters responded by shooting over their heads and tossing flash-bangs into the crowd.
Borderlands: Belgorod and Kursk are still subjected to multiple drone strikes. Five people were injured in the Belgorod region and damage to 30 private residences and 10 cars was reported, per the governor.
RF MOD (week in review):
Russian aviation and air defense systems shot down 15 ATACMS tactical missiles manufactured by the US.
Yug Group defeated 14 brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian losses in their area of responsibility amounted to over 2,325 soldiers.
Vostok Group destroyed a Ukrainian field ammunition depot and eliminated up to 745 soldiers.
Tsentr Group improved its situation along the front line and liberated the settlements of Novobakhmutovka, Semyonovka, and Berdychy in the Donetsk People's Republic. During the week, Ukrainian forces lost more than 2,405 troops, an Abrams tank, and four Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
Zapad Group repelled 23 counterattacks from the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkov region, the LNR and the DNR. Ukrainian losses amounted to up to 975 soldiers.
Russian troops destroyed two HIMARS MLRS, two S-300PT air defense systems with radar stations, IRIS-T air defense systems, a fuel depot, and a train with Western equipment.
Over the course of this last week, 14 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered.
DNR Republic of the Russian Federation
LNR Republic of the Russian Federation
No reports.
Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions of the Russian Federation
Kherson: The suicide of an agent who transmitted the coordinates of Russian forces on the left bank of the Dniepr was reported on a locally-oriented Telegram channel. His suicide note said he’d collaborated with another Ukrainian channel; the plan did not go as envisioned. Instead of receiving an award, the man was betrayed and blackmailed, he said, for more and more data. Relatives of the man who lived in Ukraine were under threat if he didn’t perform. This was the only way out that he could imagine.
Zaporozhye: No report.
WAR OF WORDS
[The EU’s Josep] Borrell stated that without Western weapons supplies to Kiev, the conflict in Ukraine "will end in two weeks." A grand admission! Here is your entire "peace formula" - the cessation of Western arms supplies to the Kiev regime. ~RF MFA spox Zakharov
BUSINESS/FINANCE
The G7 countries have stopped discussing the confiscation of Russian assets and have begun instead to look for means of making money to meet Ukrainian needs using those assets. The G7 fear the ramifications of the outright seizure of frozen foreign assets.
Related: The US is currently in talks with "close partners” to provide up to $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. The plan calls for using profits from frozen Russian assets to compensate nations that furnish “aid”.
Serbian president Vucic announced that Serbia signed a Free Trade Agreement with China. Trade between the two is currently at $6.1 billion; Vucic anticipates that doubling over the next decade. Serbia also received an invitation to join the One Belt One Road initiative.
President Xi of China is scheduled to visit May 7 and 8.
Serbia will not eschew the EU in favor of joining the BRICS alliance, however, Vucic noted. Serbia has had “candidate status” in the EU…since 2012.
Boeing’s problems are Russia’s fault. Per the Wall Street Journal: "Boeing has more parts trouble, but this time it doesn’t stem from manufacturing snafus or the 737 jet. The blame goes to Russia sanctions still rippling through the jet maker’s supply chain”.
The fact is that the manufacturer of the temperature control part for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner shut down its Russian operations and moved production west (due to sanctions). New RTX production lines in the UK and US simply aren’t producing enough. Boeing is also struggling with a shortage of titanium they previously acquired from Russia—because the company severed relations with the supplier.
Ukraine attempted to fine Telegram—but couldn’t find an address. “We, unfortunately, know only one address in Dubai, where Telegram’s headquarters seem to be located. And all our attempts to establish official contacts with Telegram have so far been unsuccessful,” explained Valentin Koval, Deputy Head of the National Council of Ukraine for Television and Radio Broadcasting.
The European Commission launched an investigation into Meta over the spread of political disinformation on its platforms and to assess whether it violated European regulations.
Apple announced the largest share buyback in US history. It will amount to $110 billion, setting a new record for the company which already holds the top five largest buybacks. This news accompanied Apple’s quarterly sales report, which exceeded expectations. Additionally, on May 7, Apple plans to introduce new iPads, marking the first update to the tablet line in a year and a half. In June, Tim Cook will present a strategy on artificial intelligence at the annual Worldwide Developers Conference, which typically positively impacts tech company stocks.
UPDATES
Ukraine responded to the addition of Zelenskiy to Russia's “wanted” list as an act of “pure desperation...propaganda…to garner attention”. Then they got in their “dig”: the ICC warrant for Putin is valid in 123 countries.
The fire at the Diehl factory in Berlin is still not extinguished and might not be until tomorrow.
Ilan Shor, leader of the opposition Moldovan bloc "Pobeda" (Victory), said that passengers from Russia were subjected to groundless checks at the Chișinău (Kishinev) airport. Those arriving from Moscow "are detained, money is seized, robbed and not allowed to go home".
Kharkov: A plant specializing in the repair of armored vehicles was targeted today.
Donetsk:
Kherson: AFU are using FPV drones carrying napalm.
