Continuum Economics

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May 27, 2024

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending corrective bounce
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May 27, 2024 2:35 AM UTC

Consolidation at the 16000 level has given way to stronger bounce to extend gains from the 15914 low

Chart USD/THB Update: Leaning lower from Friday's 36.75 high
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May 27, 2024 2:21 AM UTC

  Leaning lower from the Friday's spike high at 36.75 as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Lower in consolidation from the 1370.00/1373.00 resistance
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May 27, 2024 2:00 AM UTC

 Settling back from test of the 1370.00/1373.00 resistance

Chart USD/SGD Update: Settling back from test of 1.3525 resistance
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May 27, 2024 1:51 AM UTC

 Settling back from test of the 1.3525 resistance 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Focus return to the 1.2760 spike high
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May 27, 2024 1:29 AM UTC

 Limited on break of the 1.2700 level and rebound at the 1.2675 low see the 1.2760 spike high of last week back in focus

Chart EUR/USD Update: Higher in consolidation above the 1.0812/00 support
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May 27, 2024 1:12 AM UTC

Higher in consolidation above support at the 1.0812/00 congestion as prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extending gains, but stretched
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May 27, 2024 12:50 AM UTC

Still stretching with break above the 170.00 level on Friday reaching fresh high at 170.50

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating below 157.00, scope for pullback
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May 27, 2024 12:37 AM UTC

No follow-through on probes above the 157.00 level with gains checked at the 157.20 high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating at the .6600/.6580 support
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May 27, 2024 12:20 AM UTC

Held firm at the .6600/.6580 support with bounce consolidating losses from the .6715 high

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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May 27, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback remains solid in earlier Asia session before slipping the the London and New York session. KRW saw the largest losses of 0.52%, followed by THB 0.44%, MYR 0.16%, PHP 0.10%, TWD 0.08%, CNH and HKD 0.05%, CNY 0.01%; the

May 26, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, May 27th-31st
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May 26, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

CPI data at the end of the week limits early week volatility
Still scope for some action in USD/JPY in particular
CHF remains vulnerable, NOK may represent the best carry trade
GBP has potential to rise on declining  risk premium

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, May 27th-31st
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May 26, 2024 5:00 PM UTC

CPI data at the end of the week limits early week volatility
Still scope for some action in USD/JPY in particular
CHF remains vulnerable, NOK may represent the best carry trade
GBP has potential to rise on declining  risk premium

May 24, 2024

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Banxico Minutes: Unanimous Pause, Diverging Cuts
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May 24, 2024 9:24 PM UTC

Banxico maintained the policy rate at 11%, reflecting a cautious stance amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. The board was unanimous in this decision but divided on the timing of future cuts. Despite expectations for a rebound in economic activity, concerns about inflationary pressure

FX Weekly Strategy: May 27th-31st
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 2:42 PM UTC

CPI data at the end of the week limits early week volatility
Still scope for some action in USD/JPY in particular
CHF remains vulnerable, NOK may represent the best carry trade
GBP has potential to rise on declining  risk premium

U.S. May Final Michigan CSI - Less weak than the preliminary, with less of a bounce in inflation expectations
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

May’s preliminary Michigan CSI showed a substantial fall in confidence and a significant rise in inflation expectations. The final data shows a slightly smaller fall in confidence and less evidence of rising inflation expectations.

Canada March Retail Sales - Soft month, subdued quarter, but stronger April expected
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May 24, 2024 1:26 PM UTC

Canada’s 0.2% decline in March retail sales  was a little weaker than the preliminary unchanged estimate given with February’s report, and the detail looks weaker still, with sales down by 0.6% ex autos and overall sales down by 0.4% in real terms. The preliminary signal for April however is po

U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Rise fully on defense but some underlying improvement
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May 24, 2024 12:58 PM UTC

April durable goods orders are stronger than expected, and while the gains of 0.7% overall and 0.4% ex transport are moderate, they are a little above recent trend. While the overall rise came fully on defense, gains in non-defense capital ex aircraft orders of 0.3% and shipments of 0.4% suggest bus

European Summary and Highlights 24 May
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May 24, 2024 10:26 AM UTC

In a quiet European morning, EUR/USD gained 20 pips to 1.0830, USD/JPY slipped 10 pips to 157, EUR/CHF gained around 15 pips to test the recent highs, and EUR/NOK fell 4 figures to its lowest since March near 11.50.

Psychology for major markets May 24th
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May 24, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

USD supported after strong PMI

This week's five highlights
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May 24, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

This week's Fed Speaker and May FOMC Minute Review
RBNZ Keeping Restrictive Rates Longer
UK Called for July Election
UK Inflation Falls Further Amid More Signs of Price Persistence
Canada April CPI Shows Continued Progress in the BoC core rates

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 24th
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 8:59 AM UTC

JPY to focus more on intervention threat than Japanese CPI
Levels suggests intervention likely but timing uncertain
GBP to maintain firm tone despite softer PMIs
CHF looks a more attractive funding currency than the JPY

Chart USD/MXN Update: Extending corrective bounce from 16.5100 support
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 7:37 AM UTC

Turned up in consolidation from support at the 16.5100, March low

Chart USD/BRL Update: Higher in consolidation from the 5.0500 low
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 7:10 AM UTC

Turning higher in choppy trade from the 5.0850 low

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UK Sales Weakness Curbing Pricing Power?
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 7:05 AM UTC

Ending an interesting week of UK data, retail sales slumped in April, partly due to what was a wet month.  Notably, sales volumes fell by 2.3% m/m following a broadly flat February and March 2024 and were down by 2.7% y/y and 3.8% below their pre-pandemic level.  This weaker-than-expected outcome

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Consolidating test of .8500 low
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 6:52 AM UTC

Steadied at the .8500 support as prices unwind the oversold intraday and daily studies and consolidate losses from the .8620 high

GBP flows: GBP briefly dips on weaker retail sales
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 6:28 AM UTC

Weaker than expected April retail sales are likely erratic and will have little sustained impact on GBP

Chart USD/CHF Update: Consolidating, scope to extend gains
Freemium Article

May 24, 2024 6:26 AM UTC

Consolidating test of the .9150/55 congestion

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating test of 83.1560 support
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 5:31 AM UTC

Follow-through below the strong support at the 83.2650 has seen losses to reach the April low at 83.1560

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Extending gains, room to 105.50/75 area
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

Consolidation below the 105.00 level has given way to break higher to extend gains from the 104.25/00 support

Asia Summary and Highlights 24 May
Freemium Article

May 24, 2024 4:45 AM UTC

Japan April all three item CPI continue to moderate

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 24th
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 4:43 AM UTC

JPY to focus more on intervention threat than Japanese CPI
Levels suggests intervention likely but timing uncertain
GBP to maintain firm tone despite softer PMIs
CHF looks a more attractive funding currency than the JPY

AUD/USD flows: Weak Regional sentiment
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 4:42 AM UTC

Regional equities in Japan, Hong Kong and China are all in the red 

USD/JPY flows: CPI continues to tread lower
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May 24, 2024 4:21 AM UTC

Japan April all three item CPI continue to moderate

Chart USD/MYR Update: Extending corrective gains
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 2:57 AM UTC

Break above the 4.7000 level extending gains from the 4.6750 low

Chart USD/CNH Update: Reached the 7.2600 level, further gains likely limited
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 2:27 AM UTC

Follow-through above the 7.2470 resistance extend gains from the 7.1650 May low to reach congestion at the 7.2600 level

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Consolidating at the 16000 level
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 2:17 AM UTC

Settled into consolidation at the 16000 level but further gains not ruled out

Chart USD/SGD Update: Extending corrective gains
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 1:54 AM UTC

Break above the 1.3500 level has seen extension to the 1.3525 resistance

Chart GBP/USD Update: Extending pullback from the 1.2760 spike high
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 1:44 AM UTC

Break of the 1.2700 level extending pullback from the 1.2760 spike high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Weighing on the 1.0812/00 support
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 1:34 AM UTC

Lower to extend consolidation below the 1.0900 level as prices unwind the overbought daily studies to reach support at the 1.0812/00 congestion

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Limited gains above the 170.00 level
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 1:04 AM UTC

Remains in consolidation below the 170.00 level after failure to sustain break to 170.30 high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 12:38 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the upside and break above the 157.00 level has seen gains to 157.20 high

Chart AUD/USD Update: Under pressure, room for deeper pullback
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 12:19 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the downside and break of the .6600 level see room to further extend losses from the .6715 high

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

May 24, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback is gained further traction after stronger PMI data. THB saw the largest losses of 0.57%, followed by MYR 0.15%, PHP 0.12%, SGD 0.07%, CNH 0.05%, CNY and HKD 0.02%; the only winners are TWD 0.14% and KRW 0.04%.
USD/CNH i

May 23, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 24th
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

JPY to focus more on intervention threat than Japanese CPI
Levels suggests intervention likely but timing uncertain
GBP to maintain firm tone despite softer PMIs
CHF looks a more attractive funding currency than the JPY

North American Summary and Highlights 23 May
Freemium Article

May 23, 2024 8:03 PM UTC

Overview - The EUR was supported by stronger PMI data but the USD ended with broad based gains after US PMI data also exceeded expectations.  

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As Expected, CBRT Kept Key Rate Unchanged at 50%
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 7:30 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on May 23 despite galloping inflation which edged up to 69.8% in April, up from 68.5% in March. CBRT said in a statement on May 23 that "(...)considering the lagged effects of

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 24th
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 3:05 PM UTC

JPY to focus more on intervention threat than Japanese CPI
Levels suggests intervention likely but timing uncertain
GBP to maintain firm tone despite softer PMIs
CHF looks a more attractive funding currency than the JPY

U.S. April New Home Sales - Losing momentum
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 2:18 PM UTC

April new home sales at 634k are weaker than expected, with March’s unexpectedly strong 693k outcome revised down to 665k, with April down 4.7% after a revised 5.4% March increase. While the decline does not fully reverse March’s increase housing data mostly is suggesting a loss of momentum.