Monthly Outlook

Generally it will remain rather changeable across the UK as temperatures will fall on or slightly below seasonal average next week. Later in the month there is a chance for summery conditions to develop.

High pressure will remain to the west of the UK throughout the weekend. Many areas will have a dry day on Saturday with spells of sunshine, and the northerly breeze across eastern England should be a little less strong compared to Friday. For Sunday much of the UK will hold on to dry weather with some more sunshine. However, Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to see more general cloud and this will give patches of rain to north-western Scotland. Eventually this will turn to more persistent rain as a cold front begins to push in from the west. For most it will be a little warmer this weekend especially in the south-east.

At the beginning of next week the high pressure will retreat to the west and south. As a result the warmer conditions could initially only continue in southern and perhaps eastern parts. However, it could become more changeable with isolated, sometimes thundery showers from the north and north-west, with a brisk west to north-westerly flow developing. Areas of low pressure with their fronts could affect large parts of the UK on Tuesday. Spells of showery rain or heavy thundery showers are expected, with temperatures falling to average or slightly below, particularly in the north. In south-east England temperatures may reach or slightly exceed 20 C.

In south-western areas of England it could stay slightly drier as the week progresses. Temperatures could remain slightly higher in southern England as well. Towards the end of the week an influence of high pressure from the west could set in leading to calmer conditions, at least temporarily, although the changeable conditions will initially persist in the north and perhaps also in the east. Temperatures may rise slightly especially in the southern and western areas.

However, the forecast for the end of next week is subject to increasing uncertainty.

In the third week of June conditions could be rather changeable again as areas of low pressure could approach or surround the UK at times. There is also the possibility of areas of low pressure moving generally north or north-west of the UK later this week, allowing the high pressure of the Azores High to spread across the southern part of the UK, at least temporarily. This would lead to warmer, calmer and slightly drier conditions particularly in the southern areas. However, a renewed build-up of a stronger block of high pressure over Scandinavia could lead to a drier and warmer easterly or south-easterly flow, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the UK, and wetter conditions further west and south.

The fourth week of June could be drier, particularly in eastern and southern parts of the UK. This would be due to areas of low pressure which could affect mainly west and north-western parts of the UK and an extended area of high pressure from the Azores or the Scandinavian High could affect regions of the UK at times. As a result it will continue to be warmer than average.

During the last week of June there are signs that high pressure will become established near or over the UK for a prolonged period. This increases the chance of continued higher temperatures. There is even a chance of very warm weather in southern England and Wales and conditions could be drier almost everywhere. However, for Scotland at least, there remains a risk of wetter and slightly windier conditions.

To summarise, the trend suggests that calmer and warmer summer weather could break through in the second half of June.

In the next forecast we will see whether the summery outlook will continue at the end of June and into the beginning of July.