Monthly Outlook

It will remain quite changeable across the UK as temperatures will initially remain below average. However, there is still a chance of summery conditions later in June.

Over the weekend, weak high pressure from the south-west could temporarily settle in the south and south-west, leading to drier conditions with slightly higher temperatures in the south and south-east of England, while changeable and cooler conditions persist further north and east.

On Sunday and Sunday night, the low pressure area will move southwards again with a sharp cold front, whereby it will be quite windy with spells of rain or heavy showers, some of them potentially thundery.

The start of next week will be cooler, windy and quite unsettled across the UK. The cooler north-westerly or even northerly flow at times may persist at least until the middle of the week, with showers and windy conditions continuing, especially in the north and east. Further west, there is a chance of somewhat drier conditions.

From the middle of next week, new areas of Atlantic low pressure will approach with their fronts from the west, leading to wet and windy conditions across the UK later on. In addition, next weekend could be very wet in places, with heavy and persistent rainfall if the low pressure area becomes trapped near or directly over parts of the UK.

Nevertheless, temperatures could slowly rise after the middle of next week and be around or slightly above average by the end of next week, especially in the south.

However, confidence in the forecast will decrease towards the end of next week.

The third week of June could continue to be wetter than normal across much of the UK initially.

However, conditions may tend to become drier in parts of the UK as areas of low pressure could affect mainly the north and north-west of the UK during the week and an extended area of high pressure from the Azores High settles over southern parts of the UK, at least temporarily. As a result, the warming trend could continue as the week progresses.

As the weather pattern is generally slow to develop due to stalled conditions, the low pressure influence near the UK may persist for longer and bring generally changeable conditions with a brisk westerly or south-westerly flow. Warmer air masses are therefore more likely to influence much of the UK.

In the last week of June, there are signs that high air pressure will build up near or over parts of the UK for an extended period. The latter increases the likelihood that temperatures will continue to rise and that it will become drier and calmer on average.

In southern England and Wales, there is even a chance of very warm conditions later on. In Scotland at least, there is a risk of somewhat wetter and windier conditions.

As areas of low pressure are likely to move north of the UK or over northern Scotland, there is a greater chance of warmer, calmer and drier weather in England and Wales in the first week of July.

Given the variable weather forecast models, conditions could be more changeable, windier and cooler at times. There is also a continued risk of high pressure shifting west of the UK and a generally cooler north-westerly flow becoming established for a while.

To summarise, the trend towards calmer and even summery conditions will continue somewhat after mid-June, at least temporarily, although other solutions are also possible.

In the next forecast, we will see how the trend continues in July. Blocked and thus longer lasting weather patterns have a negative impact on the forecast quality.