Tuesday 4 June, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Rare Earths, Meteorites and Magnets

Prof. Lindsay Greer, Cambridge

Rare-earth elements are not necessarily rare, but are found only in low-concentration deposits and are difficult to extract. They are used (at low concentrations) in many technologies: flat-panel displays, LED lights, camera lenses, catalytic converters, disc-drives, batteries, and many more. Now, the largest use is in permanent magnets, which are used in electric motors and generators. With the aim towards ‘zero carbon’ and electrification, manifest in the proliferation of electric cars and wind turbines, the demand for permanent magnets has soared. With up to 95% of all rare earths coming from China, there is strategic concern about security of supply: rare earths top the ‘critical materials’ list. It has been of great interest, therefore, that some meteorites (composed mainly of iron and nickel, and, importantly, devoid of rare earths) have regions within them with excellent magnetic properties, even rivalling those of man-made magnets containing rare earths. These regions even act as magnetic recorders of conditions in the early Universe. But meteorites cannot meet the demand for magnets. This talk is largely about the decades-long struggle to replicate the desirable structures in meteorites — a tale of occasional glimpses of success, of dashed hopes, and of ongoing efforts. And I will mention how I got into research in this area, while looking for something totally different!

Lindsay Greer earned MA and PhD degrees at Cambridge, then undertook postdoctoral work and was Assistant Professor of Applied Physics at Harvard University before returning to a faculty position in Cambridge.  He has held visiting positions at the Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble and the Centre d'Études Nucléaires de Grenoble, and was Harrison Distinguished Visiting Professor, Department of Physics and Centre for Materials Innovation, Washington University.  He holds an Advisory Professorship at Chongqing University.  He is an editor of Philosophical Magazine (founded in 1798, publishing papers on the structure and properties of condensed matter).  He has been awarded the Pilkington Teaching Prize of the University of Cambridge, the Light Metals and Cast Shop Technology Awards of TMS (USA), the Cook-Ablett Award, the Hume Rothery Prize and the Griffith Medal of the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining, the ISMANAM Senior Scientist Medal, the Honda Kotaro Memorial Medal of Tohoku University, and the Lee Hsun Lecture Award of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.  He has published two books, more than 10 book chapters and more than 350 scientific papers.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 3 June, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Wargame: QUANTUM FURY Wargame, Cyber Cup Rematch

Facilitator: Caroline Baylon, Said Business School Fellow, APPG Lead, ETG Research Associate

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Wednesday 29 May, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

NO WORKING GROUP MEETING — Closed Session (Blavatnik School)

Topic: Navigating the Cyber Frontier: Trends and Challenges

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 28 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Inter-alliance Security Dilemmas: Korean Counterforce Systems and Their Effect on the Sino- American Nuclear Competition

Sam Seitz, University of Oxford

Cold War strategic competition was dominated by the actions of the US and USSR. Their material preponderance, coupled with tightly integrated multilateral alliances systems in Europe, oriented competition around this central axis of competition. But the current environment is less centralized, characterized by cross-cutting alliances and interacting nuclear dyads. How has this changed the nature of nuclear competition? We assess this question by considering the inter-Korean competition and its effects outside the peninsula. In response to North Korea’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, Seoul has procured stealth aircraft and precision, long-range missiles. It has also authorized the deployment of US missile defense systems to its territory, pursued greater nuclear coordination with Washington, and even threatened nuclear acquisition itself. These moves are aimed at Pyongyang, but they have spillover effects on China. Exploiting new Chinese language military documents, we show that South Korea’s increasingly sophisticated arsenal of counterforce systems is contributing to Beijing’s anxiety about the survivability of its nuclear arsenal, helping to spur China’s nuclear arsenal expansion. This has important implications both for the academic literature on alliances and arms racing as well as for policy debates surrounding Sino-American nuclear competition. In particular, it suggests that alliances might not just entrap patrons in wars but also in arms races. This creates a type of inter-alliance security dilemma, where security spirals in one state dyad produce security spirals in separate state dyads. Further, it reveals that contemporary strategic competition in East Asia systematically differs from the Cold War due to the existence of multiple cross-cutting alliances. This complicates signaling efforts, and, by increasing the number of relevant actors, augurs deep challenges for any efforts at bilateral nuclear arms control between the US and China.

 Samuel Seitz is an incoming Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program and DPhil Candidate in International Relations at The University of Oxford. His research interests include status-seeking in international relations, nuclear strategy, military procurement policy, alliance politics, and the ways in which they intersect. His work has been published in Contemporary Security Policy, The Washington Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, and The US-China Perception Monitor. Sam has also worked as a Summer Associate and Adjunct Researcher at the RAND Corporation. He received an M.A. in Security Studies and a B.S.F.S. in International Politics from Georgetown University.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 27 May, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: TBC

Speaker: TBC

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 22 May, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Mythbusting the Politics of War: How Presidents Manage the Political Costs of Civilian Control

Dr Andrew Payne, City, University of London

Abstract will be posted shortly.

Andrew Payne is a Lecturer in Foreign Policy and Security at City, University of London, and a Research Associate at the University of Oxford, where he was previously the Hedley Bull Research Fellow in International Relations. His research examines the influence of domestic politics on US foreign policy, military strategy and civil-military relations. His first book, War on the Ballot: How the Election Cycle Shapes Presidential Decision-Making in War, was published by Columbia University Press in July 2023. His work has been published in several peer-reviewed journals, including International Security, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Politics, and Contemporary Politics. His writing has also appeared in The Washington Post, The Sunday Times, The Conversation, and International Affairs. In addition to his academic work, Andrew serves on the board of the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House).

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Wednesday 22 May, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: Cloud Empires’ Physical Footprint: Trade and Security Politics Shaping Global Data Infrastructure
Prof. Vili Lehdonvirta and Boxi Wu (Oxford Internet Institute)

US-China technological rivalry presents dilemmas for third countries. Cloud computing infrastructure has become an acute front in this rivalry because of the infrastructural power that it affords over increasingly cloud-based economies, and because it is a control point in AI governance. We ask what factors explain a third country’s “cloud infrastructure alignment”—the degree to which the country’s local cloud computing infrastructure belongs to U.S. versus Chinese providers. Based on literature, we sketch three different answers: international trade, digital imperialism, and third-country strategic choice. In the first quantitative study on the topic, we test propositions derived from these views using original data on global hyperscale cloud infrastructure combined with trade statistics and security variables. We find that cloud infrastructure alignment is positively associated with other imports from the U.S. or China, negatively associated with interstate disputes, and only weakly associated with security cooperation ties. The findings suggest that commercial interests and third-country strategic choice may be more influential in shaping cloud infrastructure than any imperialist expansion or containment by the superpowers. We conclude that researchers should direct more attention to the role of third-country agency in technology geopolitics, and to the role of tech firms as autonomous geopolitical actors.

Vili Lehdonvirta is Professor of Economic Sociology and Digital Social Research at the Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford. He leads a research group examining the politics and socio-economic implications of digital technologies. Lehdonvirta holds a PhD in Economic Sociology from the University of Turku (2009) and a MSc from the Helsinki University of Technology (2005).

Boxi Wu works in Google DeepMind’s Responsible AI team, focusing on the ethical and societal implications of frontier AI models across both LLMs and multimodal models. They advise teams on ethical risks and mitigations, and lead internal ethics & safety governance fora, alongside their part-time studies in the MSc in Social Science at the OII. Their research interests focus on the social and political impacts of AI, focusing on the materiality of AI infrastructure and implications for AI ethics and governance, working with Professor Vili Lehdonvirta to map global AI infrastructure.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 21 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Spy and Tell: Why are governments publicly sharing more intelligence secrets than ever before?

Professor David V. Gioe, Kings College London
Thomas Maguire, Leiden University

Professor David Gioe is Visiting Professor of Intelligence and International Security in the KCL Department of War Studies. He joins the department as a British Academy Global Professor. He is Associate Professor of History at the US Military Academy at West Point, where he also serves as History Fellow for the Army Cyber Institute. David is also Director of Studies for the Cambridge Security Initiative and co-convener of its International Security and Intelligence program. Professor Gioe is an internationally recognised academic scholar of intelligence and a veteran professional practitioner of the craft. He is experienced in civilian, military, corporate and law enforcement intelligence with expertise in intelligence analysis and overseas operations. After over a decade of public service as an intelligence officer, he became a leading intellectual with several conference presentations, media engagements and publications on intelligence and national security issues. He holds advanced degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Cambridge. His scholarship and analysis has appeared in numerous outlets.

Dr Thomas Maguire is an Assistant Professor of Intelligence and Security in the Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, and Visiting Fellow with the King’s Centre for the Study of Intelligence in the Department of War Studies, King’s College London (KCL). Tom's research streams are two-fold. Firstly, he is interested in interactions between intelligence and propaganda in international politics, especially examining covert influence and intelligence disclosures as policy tools. This forms the basis for a forthcoming book with Oxford University Press, The intelligence-propaganda nexus: British and American covert action in Cold War Southeast Asia. It is also the thematic focus for a Dutch Government-funded research project, ‘Sharing Secrets’, for which Tom is the Principal Investigator. This examines state decision-making behind disclosing intelligence to influence external audiences. Secondly, Tom is interested in the politics and impacts of international security cooperation, in particular exploring post-colonial security relationships between states in Africa and Asia and the United Kingdom during the Cold War and so-called Global War on Terror.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 20 May, 16.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: Artificial Intelligence: Present & Future Use by the Intelligence Community

Speaker: Sir David Omand, GCB, Former Director of GCHQ (1996-97)

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Wednesday 15 May, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: AI Supply Chain Impacts and the Environment
Dr. Ana Valdivia (Oxford Internet Institute)

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 14 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Open-Source Intelligence: what is it for, where did it come from and what is standing in its way?

Matthew Lawrence, Centre for Information Resilience 

Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) is everywhere right now.   From the blue tick ‘journalists’ on the remnants of Twitter to boardrooms and the world’s battlefields.  Yet if the observer grabs any two OSINT examples or indeed any two OSINT practitioners, it is likely that they will get completely different answers to all of the questions in this seminar’s title.  Moreover, if that same observer felt inclined to dive into academic definitions from either Intelligence Studies or Journalism, they would find themselves confused about how what they’ve seen relates to what they’re reading in any way. This session seeks to explain that dissonance by exploring where the various streams of OSINT came from, what common goods/challenges exist, and what that means for OSINT’s evolving role(s). 

Matt Lawrence is a career intelligence professional.  He spent ten years using OSINT techniques in traditional settings in the British Army, he spent a further three years building corporate capabilities around them, and he now works at the Centre for Information Resilience where he attempts to combine his studied professional and academic view of intelligence with the power of the OSINT community for the purpose of human rights accountability. Matt stays connected to the technology driven side of private sector intelligence through consultancy work for both multi-national and start-up tech companies, building tradecraft and translating intelligence use cases.

As an occasional academic, Matt holds a BSc and an MA in Intelligence and International Relations and is currently working toward a PhD on the subject of OSINT’s evolving role in the world.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 13 May, 17.00
Herford College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: Naval competition in the Red Sea and Broader Middle East

Speaker: Lt Commander Andrew Ward, Royal Navy, & CCW Fellow (2023-24)

Lt Cdr Ward will be discussing the anomalies of increased superpower naval presence in the Red Sea, without (so far) increased naval competition.  Building on his work on the mirroring fallacy vis-à-vis the Soviet Navy and the West, he will explore whether there is only one way to do naval strategy.  What do recent operations in the Red Sea tell us about how naval warfare is changing and the role of navies in state-on-state competition?

Andrew Ward is the 2023-24 Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and a Visiting Fellow at CCW. Andrew joined the Royal Navy in 2012, serving at sea in destroyers HMS DRAGON and DUNCAN in the Middle East. Recently he has been working in international policy at the Ministry of Defence and Northwood Headquarters. He read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at University College, was a visiting student at Washington & Lee University and completed an MA in Defence and Security Studies (Maritime) at King’s College London in 2021. His paper on the Royal Navy and the Early Cold War was published in January 2022.

Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 8 May, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Economic statecraft from the perspective of systemic influence

Maria de Goeij Reid, CCW

Hybrid Meeting: Join through Microsoft Teams

Economic statecraft is often talked about, but relatively poorly understood; the topic finds itself somewhere in the somewhat awkward space between economics and international relations, and often also somewhere in between ‘war’ and ‘peace’. It is often too simplistically labelled as being a weak and ineffective substitute for ‘real’ action. In this seminar Maria will approach the topic from the perspective of complexity and influence, shedding light on how to analyse the strategic utility of economic statecraft in its appropriate context.

Maria de Goeij Reid is a senior associate at the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University. Before joining the CCW centre Maria led a team of intelligence analysts at TRSSI, a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters. She has been working as a consultant and advisor in both the public and private sector.

Her latest publication on the topic of complex adaptive systems and the analysis and influence of strategic behaviour be found here:  https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol53/iss4/14/ . She is currently working on a book chapter about economic statecraft from the perspective of systemic influence.

Maria has a BA degree in European Studies from The Hague University and an MSc degree in Crisis and Security Management from Leiden University. 

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Wednesday 8 May, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: Taiwan's Satellite Production amid Geopolitical Tensions
Speaker: Yi-Ting Chang (School of Geography and the Environment)

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 7 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

The Shifting Global Terrorism and Extremism Landscape: A View from Southeast Asia

Prof. Kumar Ramakrishna, RSIS Singapore

This talk provides an analysis of shifting global terrorism and extremism trends from a Southeast Asian and more specifically Singaporean vantage point. It sketches out the ideological and physical dimensions of the threat in Southeast Asia, explores an emergent far right ideological strain in a region long dominated by an Islamist extremist one - and reinforces the need for a holistic, multisectoral response to the threat, incorporating calibrated military/law enforcement responses as part of an “indirect” strategic counter-terrorism effort.

Kumar Ramakrishna is Professor of National Security Studies, Provost’s Chair in National Security Studies, Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), as well as Research Adviser to the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, at RSIS. Prior to his current appointments, he was Head, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (2020-2022), Head, Centre of Excellence for National Security (2006-2015) and Head, National Security Studies Programme (2016 to 2020). He was also Associate Dean for Policy Studies (2020 to 2022).

A historian by background, Professor Ramakrishna has been a frequent speaker on counter-terrorism before local and international audiences, a regular media commentator on counter-terrorism, and an established author in numerous internationally refereed journals. His first book, Emergency Propaganda: The Winning of Malayan Hearts and Minds 1948-1958 (2002) was described by the International History Review as “required reading for historians of Malaya, and for those whose task is to counter insurgents, guerrillas, and terrorists”. His second major book, Radical Pathways: Understanding Muslim Radicalisation in Indonesia (2009) was featured as one of the top 150 books on terrorism and counterterrorism in the respected journal Perspectives on Terrorism, which identified Professor Ramakrishna as “one of Southeast Asia’s leading counterterrorism experts”. His recent research has focused on understanding, preventing and countering violent extremism in Southeast Asia. His latest book is Extremist Islam: Recognition and Response in Southeast Asia (New York: Oxford University Press, 2022).

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 6 May, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: Does Competition Change Character? Left of War in the Maritime Domain

Speaker: Captain Sean Andrews, Royal Australian Navy, & CCW Fellow (2023)

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Wednesday 1 May, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

oxford Technology and Security Nexus

Topic: China’s AI Capabilities, Governance, and International Engagement

Speaker: Sihao Huang, Department of Politics and International Relations

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 30 April, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

“Out of the Blue”: The mirroring fallacy and the navies of today

Lt Cdr Andrew Ward, CCW & Royal Navy

In the 1960s, the Soviet Navy was quietly recapitalising and expanding. As détente collapsed in the late 1970s, western analysts panicked as the Soviet Fleet patrolled the world ocean, supported socialist revolutions around the world and established naval bases astride vital maritime chokepoints such as the Bab-al-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. But the signs had been there all along. Under the visionary leadership of Admiral of the Soviet Union Sergei Gorshkov, the USSR had hankered after sea power for a generation. Gorshkov’s conception of fleet composition was dismissed in the West because it did not mirror the blue water battle fleets that had won the Second World War for the Allies. As the Cold War climaxed in the 1980s, the US Navy reacted to this new Soviet Fleet with a massive expansion in ships and an aggressive forward Maritime Strategy. The world ocean of 2024 is still patrolled by the results of that endeavour, ready for the next naval challenger – the People’s Liberation Army Navy. This talk will build on archival research on Admiralty Records throughout the Cold War and follows Andrew’s first paper published in the Journal of Intelligence History in 2022. 

Andrew Ward is the 2023-24 Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and a Visiting Fellow at CCW. Andrew joined the Royal Navy in 2012, serving at sea in destroyers HMS DRAGON and DUNCAN in the Middle East. Recently he has been working in international policy at the Ministry of Defence and Northwood Headquarters. He read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at University College, was a visiting student at Washington & Lee University and completed an MA in Defence and Security Studies (Maritime) at King’s College London in 2021. His paper on the Royal Navy and the Early Cold War was published in January 2022.

Seminars at 13.30, Wharton Room, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 29 April, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: Israel‐Hamas War: Intelligence, Technology, & Asymmetric Warfare

Speaker: Andrew Badger, Former Defense Intelligence Agency Case Officer, Defense SME

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 24 April, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Weaponized Interdependence: International Monopolies as Determinants of State Power

Dr Claas Mertens, Blavatnik School of Goverment

Recent weaponized interdependence research has focused on mapping international economic structures to explain states’ capacity to inflict costs on foreign actors. This paper proposes a different approach that integrates weaponized interdependence research with microeconomic concepts of substitution. If an international economic exchange is restricted, actors on either end turn to the best available alternative. Substitution costs describe the utility loss actors incur when doing so. The extent of these costs determines whether either side can ‘weaponize’ the exchange. Monopolies and monopsonies are instances where buyers and sellers face high substitution costs as they lack alternatives. The theory delineates three determinants each for international monopolies and monopsonies, offering a nuanced understanding of why states can weaponize the economic exchanges of some market actors but not others. Various cases illustrate the theory, drawing on in-depth interviews. For instance, the cases contrast the know-how and intellectual property underlying technological monopolies in semiconductor production with the international network effects that bolster several monopolies in the realm of international finance. The developed theory reframes and refines the weaponized interdependence discourse and has important implications for policymakers’ ongoing efforts to ‘de-risk’ international economic exchanges without comprehensively ‘decoupling’ them.

Claas Mertens is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Net Zero Governance systems. His research focuses on the international political economy of climate change and international economic conflicts, such as economic sanctions and weaponised interdependencies. It also explores intersections between these two areas. His work is published or forthcoming in International Studies Quarterly and The Review of International Organisations.

Before joining the Blavatnik School, Claas was a DPhil student in International Relations at Oxford University’s Department for Politics and International Relations. He also holds an MPhil in Politics from Oxford and a BA in Business from the University of St. Gallen and was a visiting student at Harvard. Before his DPhil, he worked as a management consultant. Claas was Rowing World Champion in 2015 and represented Oxford in the 2018 Oxford-Cambridge Boat Race. Now, he enjoys surfing, where his passion far exceeds his skills.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Wednesday 24 April, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

oxford Technology and Security Nexus

Topic:AI, Labor Practices, and the Future of Work
Speaker: Nikki Sun,Oxford Martin School AI Governance Initiative

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 23 April, 13.30
Hovenden Room, All Souls

Please note room change for Week 1

Some new insights into the psychology of individuals and large groups in a world of changing conflicts

Lord John Alderdice, CCW

The use of overwhelming force no longer guarantees victory in war.  Under what conditions do supposedly weaker conflict actors ‘outpower’ stronger actors?  Lord Alderdice will argue that those most willing to sustain extreme conflict have been ‘devoted actors’ driven by non-negotiable ‘sacred values’.  Bringing into dialogue insights from large group psychology, neuroscience, and epigenetics with those of political science, he will describe two factors one biological, and the other from complex large group psychology, that can help explain these apparently non-rational phenomena.

John, Lord Alderdice has an academic and professional background in medicine, psychiatry, and psychoanalysis. He was a consultant psychiatrist and Senior Lecturer at The Queen’s University of Belfast where he established the Centre for Psychotherapy with various degree courses, research work and clinical services. He also devoted himself to understanding and addressing religious fundamentalism and long-standing violent political conflict, initially in Ireland, and then in various other parts of the world. This commitment took him into politics, and he was elected Leader of Northern Ireland’s Alliance Party from 1987 to 1998, playing a significant role in the negotiation of the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. When the new Northern Ireland Assembly was elected, he became its first Speaker. In 2004 he retired from the Assembly on being appointed by the British and Irish Governments as one of the four members of the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), appointed to close down the operations of the paramilitary organizations (2003-2011) and he continued with this work on security issues when he and two colleagues were commissioned by the new Northern Ireland Government to produce a report advising them on strategy for disbanding the remaining paramilitary groups (2016).

Having been appointed to House of Lords in 1996 he was elected Convenor of the Liberal Democrats for the first four years of the Liberal/Conservative Coalition Government from 2010 to 2014. His international interests had previously led to his election as President of Liberal International, the global network of some 100 liberal political parties and organizations. He served from 2005 to 2009 and remains an active Presidente D’Honneur. He recently was elected to the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations and Defence.

He is the founding Director of the Conference on the Resolution of Intractable Conflict, based in Oxford and with colleagues in Belfast he also established the Centre for Democracy and Peace Building which continues work on the implementation of the principles of the Good Friday Agreement and takes the lessons of the Irish Peace Process to other communities in conflict. More recently he set up The Concord Foundation with a wider remit in understanding and addressing the nature of violent political conflict and its resolution. Lord Alderdice’s work has been recognized throughout the world with many fellowships, visiting professorships, honorary doctorates, and international awards. John is currently the Executive Chairman of CCW.

Seminars at 13.30, Hovenden Room, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 22 April, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Annual Threats Report & Journal Launch, Drinks Reception

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Wednesday 6 March, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

Cyber Strategy & Technology Studies working Group

Topic:Lessons from a Case Study of Social Media Disinformation

Fireside Chat: Rutendo Chabikwa (OII)

After : Cyber Strategy Group Social (all welcome)
Location The Oxford Retreat — Pub within short walk of Nuffield

The Cyber Strategy and Tech Statecraft Group meets every Wednesday during term-time. It has a hybrid meeting format, held in person in the Chester Room at Nuffield College (in person) and on Microsoft Teams (online).

Preparatory materials will be sent in advance of the session, together with discussion questions for the session. Some background knowledge or experience of the topic is recommended but not required.

Attendance to all sessions are open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 5 March, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

AI and Machine Learning in OSINT

Sam Pearce, Fivecast

Open Source Intelligence is coming of age, after a long time spent in the shadow of more established intelligence disciplines. It’s doing so in a period of rapid technological change, including widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence capability to enhance and augment the work of intelligence professionals.  This lecture will highlight the specific challenges for those intelligence professionals trying to derive insight from vast quantities of data – with a focus on modern social media platforms – and explain how Machine Learning and other modern technology is being harnessed for that effort.

As the Tradecraft Lead for UK and Europe, Sam helps Fivecast’s law enforcement and national security customers understand how to fuse technology with tradecraft, in order to boost the efficiency of investigators. Prior to Fivecast, Sam spent 15 years in the Australian Intelligence Community.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 4 March, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: Indo‐Pacific Crisis, Insider Threat, & Cyber‐Space Escalation

Facilitators: US-UK Practitioners, TBA to Participants

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College
Online: Microsoft Teams

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 28 February, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Strategic Wishes and What Happens Next: Assessing the UK's Integrated Reviews

Dr Maeve Ryan, KCL, & Professor Jamie Gaskarth, Open University 

In the aftermath of the 2019 election, the Boris Johnson government promised "the most radical assessment of the UK’s place in the world since the end of the Cold War.” The result was the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, published in March 2021 and updated in March 2023 by the Integrated Review “Refresh”. This paper aims to evaluate how far these texts achieved their aims so far, and with what consequences British strategic policy. It begins by exploring the contexts of the reviews, how previous iterations informed the framing, approach, evidencing and rationale, and what innovations were introduced. It then engages in a detailed investigation into how these reviews were implemented across government. In the process, we consider what the IR process suggests about the relationship between grand strategic concepts, grand strategic practice, and measuring success in real time.

Dr Maeve Ryan is a Reader in History and Foreign Policy at the Dept. Of War Studies, King’s College London, and the co-founder and co-director of the Centre for Grand Strategy and the Ax:son Johnson Institute for Statecraft and Diplomacy. 

Prof Jamie Gaskarth is Professor of Foreign Policy and International Relations at The Open University and co-Editor in Chief of Journal of Global Security Studies

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Wednesday 28 February, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

Cyber Strategy & Technology Studies working Group

Topic:“Explainable AI” & Black Boxes within Black Boxes

Working Group Discussion

The Cyber Strategy and Tech Statecraft Group meets every Wednesday during term-time. It has a hybrid meeting format, held in person in the Chester Room at Nuffield College (in person) and on Microsoft Teams (online).

Preparatory materials will be sent in advance of the session, together with discussion questions for the session. Some background knowledge or experience of the topic is recommended but not required.

Attendance to all sessions are open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 27 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Book Launch: British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony

Dr William D. James, KCL and CCW

Is the United Kingdom capable of grand strategy? Common wisdom suggests otherwise. Some think it implausible amid the maelstrom of domestic politics, while others believe the UK lacks the necessary autonomy, as a cog in the US-led order.

British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony challenges these claims. Grand strategy is the highest level of national security decision-making, encompassing judgements over a state's overarching objectives and interests, as well as its security environment and resource base. Getting these decisions 'right' is vital in moments of geopolitical flux.

Employing several historical case studies between 1940-2003 and marshalling a host of primary sources, the book demonstrates that British politicians and officials have thought in grand strategic terms under American hegemony - even if they do not realise or admit to this. The book also shows that the role of allies in shaping British grand strategy has been overstated. Finally, it highlights the conditions under which domestic political actors can influence grand strategic decision-making. Written for practitioners as well as scholars, the book concludes with several policy recommendations at this inflection point in British history.

The book can be preordered here and will be on sale at the launch event. The book can be purchased at a 30% discount using the code ASFLYQ6. More information can be found here. 

Dr William D. James is a Research Fellow in the Centre for Grand Strategy at King's College London and a Senior Associate of the Oxford Changing Character of War Centre. He has previously held fellowships at MIT, Harvard, and the University of Notre Dame. William earned a DPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford. Beyond his academic publishing, he writes for outlets such as War on the Rocks and Engelsberg Ideas. William has also contributed evidence to three parliamentary inquiries on British foreign policy. In 2020, he won RUSI's Trench Gascoigne Prize for original writing on defence and security.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 26 February, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: The Ukraine War Two Years On: Lessons for Technology & Autonomy

Speaker: Rob Rider, CBE, UK Defence Attaché to Germany (2015-20)

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College
Online: Microsoft Teams