Presidential election in Arizona, 2024
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|
2024 presidential election  |
Democratic primary: March 19, 2024 |
Republican primary: March 19, 2024 |
Electoral College: Eleven votes |
Arizona will hold an election for president of the United States on November 5, 2024, along with 49 other states and the District of Columbia.
The Democratic and Republican parties held primary elections on March 19, 2024. Joe Biden (D) won the Democratic primary, and Donald Trump (R) won the Republican primary.
In the 18 elections between 1952 and 2020, the Democratic candidate won in Arizona twice (1996 and 2020). In 2020, Joe Biden (D) won a plurality of votes in the state but not a majority. He received 49.4 percent of the vote, Donald Trump (D) received 49.1 percent, and Jo Jorgensen (L) received 1.5 percent.[1]
This page includes the following sections:
- Candidates and election results
- Details about Arizona's Democratic primary
- Details about Arizona's Republican primary
- Information about voting in Arizona
- Candidate filing requirements in Arizona
- Presidential election competitiveness
- Effect of the 2020 census on electoral votes
- Previous presidential election results in Arizona and analysis
- About Arizona
- Presidential election by state
Candidates and election results
Primary election
Arizona Democratic presidential primary on March 19, 2024
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
 | Joe Biden |
89.5
|
353,606 | 72 |
 | Marianne Williamson |
3.5
|
13,968 | 0 |
 | Dean Phillips |
2.8
|
11,225 | 0 |
 | Gabriel Cornejo |
1.4
|
5,647 | 0 |
 | Frank J. Lozada |
1.1
|
4,515 | 0 |
 | Jason Palmer |
0.9
|
3,428 | 0 |
|
| Stephen Lyons Sr. |
0.7
|
2,584 | 0 |
 |
Total votes: 394,973 • Total pledged delegates: 72 |
Arizona Republican presidential primary on March 19, 2024
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
 | Donald Trump |
77.9
|
451,704 | 43 |
 | Nikki Haley |
18.7
|
108,108 | 0 |
 | Ron DeSantis |
1.6
|
9,494 | 0 |
 | Chris Christie |
0.8
|
4,741 | 0 |
 | Vivek Ramaswamy |
0.4
|
2,321 | 0 |
|
| David James Stuckenberg |
0.2
|
1,201 | 0 |
 | Ryan Binkley |
0.1
|
837 | 0 |
 | Asa Hutchinson |
0.1
|
664 | 0 |
 | John Castro |
0.1
|
466 | 0 |
|
Total votes: 579,536 • Total pledged delegates: 43 |
Democratic primary
- See also: Democratic presidential nomination, 2024
The Democratic Party will select its presidential nominee at the 2024 Democratic National Convention, which will take place from August 19-22, 2024, in Chicago, Illinois. Joe Biden (D) crossed the majority delegate threshold necessary to win the Democratic nomination on March 12, 2024, making him the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Prior to the national convention, individual state caucuses and primaries are held to allocate convention delegates. To read more about the 2024 primary schedule click here. These delegates, along with superdelegates who come from the party leadership, vote at the convention to select the nominee.
Ballotpedia has identified the following noteworthy candidates actively seeking the Democratic nomination:
Republican primary
- See also: Republican presidential nomination, 2024
The Republican Party will select its presidential nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention, which will take place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, from July 15-18, 2024. Before the convention, each state, Washington, D.C., and five U.S. territories will hold a primary, caucus, or convention to decide how to allocate delegates at the national convention. These nominating events typically begin in February of an election year, though 2024 primary dates are still uncertain.
The Republican National Committee began holding primary debates in August 2023, with the first debate taking place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[2]
Donald Trump (R) crossed the majority delegate threshold necessary to win the Republican nomination on March 12, 2024, making him the presumptive Republican nominee.
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Arizona
Candidate filing requirements
The tables below detail filing requirements for presidential candidates in Arizona in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arizona, click here.
Presidential primary candidates
| Filing requirements for presidential primary candidates in Arizona, 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Party | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| Arizona | Qualified parties | 500 | Fixed | N/A | N/A | 12/11/2023 | Source |
Independent presidential candidates
| Filing requirements for independent candidates in Arizona, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| Arizona | TBD | 3% of registered voters in the state based on voter registration statistics as of January 2, 2024. | N/A | N/A | 8/17/2024 | Source |
Presidential election competitiveness
Race ratings
The map below displays presidential race ratings in each state. These ratings are generated by averaging the ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean and Tilt ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[3][4][5]
Polling
The section below displays national polling averages for the 2024 presidential election from RealClearPolitics.
Prediction markets
The section below displays national PredictIt share prices and RealClearPolitics prediction market averages for the 2024 presidential election.
What is a prediction market?
Prediction markets allow users to purchase shares relating to the outcome of events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.
The share price in each individual forecast rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a payout for each share they held.
For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.
Why do prediction markets matter?
Prediction markets can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argued that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."[6][7][8]
PredictIt
The chart below shows 2024 presidential general election open share prices over time.[9]
RealClearPolitics prediction market averages
Presidential election endorsements in Arizona
- See also: Presidential election endorsements, 2024
The section below displays current and former party leaders, governors and other state executives, members of Congress, mayors of large cities, and state legislative majority and minority leaders in Arizona who issued an endorsement in the 2024 presidential election. See something we missed? Email us.
| Presidential endorsements by Arizona elected officials and party leaders, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | State | Party | Candidate | Date |
| Andy Biggs | AZ | Republican Party | Donald Trump | November 15, 2022 source |
| Juan Ciscomani | AZ | Republican Party | Donald Trump | March 7, 2024 source |
| Eli Crane | AZ | Republican Party | Donald Trump | November 15, 2022 source |
| Paul Gosar | AZ | Republican Party | Donald Trump | November 16, 2022 source |
| Debbie Lesko | AZ | Republican Party | Donald Trump | December 27, 2023 source |
| Warren Petersen | AZ | Republican Party | Donald Trump | February 15, 2024 source |
| Ben Toma | AZ | Republican Party | Donald Trump | January 23, 2024 source |
| Ben Toma | AZ | Republican Party | Ron DeSantis | May 10, 2023 source |
| Kate Gallego | AZ | Democratic Party | Joe Biden | May 10, 2023 source |
| Regina Romero | AZ | Democratic Party | Joe Biden | May 10, 2023 source |
Effect of the 2020 census on electoral votes
Every ten years, the United States conducts the census, a complete count of the U.S. population. The data gleaned from the census process is used to determine several things, including legislative district lines, a state's number of U.S. House representatives, and the number of votes a state has in the Electoral College.
The 2024 presidential election will be the first presidential election to take place using the electoral vote counts produced by the 2020 census. Six states gained votes in the Electoral College, while seven states lost votes. See the table below for exact figures.
| Electoral votes gained and lost after the 2020 census | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Votes gained (new total) | State | Votes lost (new total) |
| Texas | +2 (40) | California | -1 (54) |
| Colorado | +1 (10) | Illinois | -1 (19) |
| Florida | +1 (30) | Michigan | -1 (15) |
| Montana | +1 (4) | New York | -1 (28) |
| North Carolina | +1 (16) | Ohio | -1 (17) |
| Oregon | +1 (8) | Pennsylvania | -1 (19) |
| West Virginia | -1 (4) | ||
Previous presidential election results and analysis
Arizona presidential election results (1900-2020)
Scroll to the right in the box below to view more recent presidential election results.
- 9 Democratic wins
- 19 Republican wins
| Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Party | N/A | N/A | N/A | D | D | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | D |
Below is an analysis of Arizona's voting record in presidential elections. The state's accuracy is based on the number of times a state has voted for a winning presidential candidate. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and was compiled, here, by Ballotpedia, unless otherwise noted.
Between 1900 and 2020:
- Arizona participated in 28 presidential elections.
- Arizona voted for the winning presidential candidate 78.6 percent of the time. The average accuracy of voting for winning presidential candidates for all 50 states in this time frame was 71.26 percent.[10]
- Arizona voted Democratic 32.1 percent of the time and Republican 67.9 percent of the time.
Recent statewide results
2020
General election
Presidential election in Arizona, 2020
Candidate/Running mate |
% |
Popular votes |
Electoral votes |
||
| ✔ |
| Joe Biden/Kamala D. Harris (D) |
49.4
|
1,672,143 | 11 |
| Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) |
49.1
|
1,661,686 | 0 | |
 
| Jo Jorgensen/Spike Cohen (L) |
1.5
|
51,465 | 0 | |
 
| Howie Hawkins/Angela Nicole Walker (G) (Write-in) |
0.0
|
1,557 | 0 | |
| Jade Simmons/Claudeliah Roze (Unaffiliated) (Write-in) |
0.0
|
236 | 0 | |
 
| Gloria La Riva/Sunil Freeman (Party for Socialism and Liberation) (Write-in) |
0.0
|
190 | 0 | |
| Daniel Clyde Cummings/Ryan Huber (American Constitution Party) (Write-in) |
0.0
|
36 | 0 | |
| President Boddie/Eric Stoneham (Unaffiliated) |
0.0
|
13 | 0 | |
|
Total votes: 3,387,326 |
Primary election
Arizona Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
Pledged delegates |
|
|
| Joe Biden |
43.7
|
268,029 | 39 |
 | Bernie Sanders |
32.7
|
200,456 | 28 |
 | Elizabeth Warren |
5.8
|
35,537 | 0 |
 | Pete Buttigieg |
4.1
|
24,868 | 0 |
 | Tulsi Gabbard |
0.5
|
3,014 | 0 |
 | Andrew Yang |
0.3
|
1,921 | 0 |
 | Julián Castro |
0.1
|
754 | 0 |
|
| Marianne Williamson |
0.1
|
668 | 0 |
 | Roque De La Fuente III |
0.1
|
628 | 0 |
|
| Michael Ellinger |
0.0
|
284 | 0 |
 | Deval Patrick |
0.0
|
242 | 0 |
|
| Henry Hewes |
0.0
|
208 | 0 |
| Other |
12.5
|
76,746 | 0 | |
|
Total votes: 613,355 • Total pledged delegates: 67 |
presidential on May 25, 2024
Candidate |
Pledged delegates |
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Recent county-level results
How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:
| County-level voting pattern categories | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Democratic | D | D | D | ||||
| Trending Democratic | R | D | D | ||||
| Battleground Democratic | D | R | D | ||||
| New Democratic | R | R | D | ||||
| Republican | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Republican | R | R | R | ||||
| Trending Republican | D | R | R | ||||
| Battleground Republican | R | D | R | ||||
| New Republican | D | D | R | ||||
Following the 2020 presidential election, 61.8% of Arizonans lived in Maricopa County, the state's one New Democratic county, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 2020 after voting for the Republican in the preceding two cycles, and 20.0% lived in one of 10 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Arizona was New Democratic, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Arizona following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.
| Arizona county-level statistics, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Democratic | 1 | 61.8% | |||||
| Solid Republican | 10 | 20.0% | |||||
| Solid Democratic | 4 | 18.2% | |||||
| Total voted Democratic | 5 | 80.0% | |||||
| Total voted Republican | 10 | 20.0% | |||||
Presidential elections by state decided by 5 percentage points or less
The following map shows the number of times, in presidential elections held between 1948 and 2020, that the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or fewer in each state.
- Wisconsin was the state with the most frequently narrow margins during this time period, appearing on the list in 11 presidential elections.
- Three states appeared nine times: Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
- The state with the narrowest margin of victory was Florida in 2000 at 537 votes or one-hundredth of a percentage point.
About the state
Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.
- Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
- State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
- Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.
U.S. Senate elections
The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Arizona.
| U.S. Senate election results in Arizona | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2022 | 51.4% |
46.5%
|
| 2020 | 51.2% |
48.8%
|
| 2018 | 50.0% |
47.6%
|
| 2016 | 53.7% |
40.8%
|
| 2012 | 49.2% |
46.1%
|
| Average | 52.7 | 43.6 |
Gubernatorial elections
- See also: Governor of Arizona
The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Arizona.
| Gubernatorial election results in Arizona | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2022 | 50.3% |
49.6%
|
| 2018 | 56.0% |
41.8%
|
| 2014 | 53.4% |
41.6%
|
| 2010 | 54.3% |
42.4%
|
| 2006 | 62.6% |
35.4%
|
| Average | 54.5 | 41.3 |
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Arizona's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Arizona | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Republican | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Independent | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 9 | 11 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Arizona's top three state executive offices as of May 2024.
| State executive officials in Arizona, May 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | Katie Hobbs
|
| Secretary of State | Adrian Fontes
|
| Attorney General | Kris Mayes
|
State legislature
Arizona State Senate
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 14 | |
| Republican Party | 16 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 30 | |
Arizona House of Representatives
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 28 | |
| Republican Party | 31 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 1 | |
| Total | 60 | |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until 2024.
Arizona Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D |
| Senate | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
The table below details demographic data in Arizona and compares it to the broader United States as of 2022.
| Demographic Data for Arizona | ||
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | United States | |
| Population | 7,151,502 | 331,449,281 |
| Land area (sq mi) | 113,654 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White | 66.7% | 65.9% |
| Black/African American | 4.6% | 12.5% |
| Asian | 3.4% | 5.8% |
| Native American | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Two or more | 13.4% | 8.8% |
| Hispanic/Latino | 32% | 18.7% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate | 88.7% | 89.1% |
| College graduation rate | 31.8% | 34.3% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income | $72,581 | $75,149 |
| Persons below poverty level | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2017-2022). | ||
| **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
Presidential election by state
- See also: Presidential election by state, 2024
Click on a state below to navigate to information about the presidential election in that jurisdiction.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2024
- Democratic presidential nomination, 2024
- Republican presidential nomination, 2024
- Presidential election by state, 2024
- Voting in Arizona
- Election administration in Arizona
Footnotes
- ↑ 270 to Win, "Arizona," accessed February 14, 2023
- ↑ The Hill, "RNC votes to hold first presidential debate in Milwaukee," February 23, 2023
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Nature, "The power of prediction markets," October 18, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
- ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018
- ↑ PredictIt, "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?" accessed December 16, 2022
- ↑ This average includes states like Arizona, New Mexico, and Oklahoma, which did not participate in all 30 presidential elections between 1900 and 2020. It does not include Washington, D.C., which cast votes for president for the first time in 1964, or Alaska and Hawaii, which cast votes for president for the first time in 1960.
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