Hungary’s Viktor Orbán battles to shut down former ally turned rival

Viktor Orbán, Europe’s longest-serving prime minister, has ruled Hungary virtually unchallenged since 2010. But in just three months, a former ally-turned-rival has garnered so much support that the government has deployed its full arsenal in an attempt to discredit him.

Péter Magyar, a 43-year old lawyer, former diplomat and scion of an old Budapest conservative family, quit the ruling Fidesz party in February, accusing it of corruption and hypocrisy.

“My goal is to strip Fidesz of a majority at the next [general] election, and at least force it [to form] a coalition,” he told the Financial Times in an interview. “I can work with Fidesz minus the cronyism and Orbán — if such a thing exists.”

His message has struck a chord with many Hungarians after four consecutive Fidesz governments, with tens of thousands taking to the streets in his support at recent rallies.

Tisza, a small conservative party he has joined, will benefit from Magyar’s surge in opinion polls — his support is currently at over 10 per cent, among the highest within the opposition. Fidesz commands the support of roughly 40 per cent of decided voters, with the next general elections due in 2026.

Rattled by Magyar’s sudden rise just as June’s European and municipal elections approach, the government has deployed a battery of resources in an effort to discredit him.

Jibes in pro-government media range from his “feminine” sunglasses to allegations that he piggybacked on the seniority of his then wife, former justice minister Judit Varga, to obtain jobs.

Last week the new Sovereignty Protection Office (SPO) — set up to prevent foreign influence in Hungary’s politics but which critics warn can target any public figure — launched a probe into Magyar over purported foreign funding links.

Magyar was uncowed, retorting on Facebook: “Ask Fidesz how many billions they spend on American campaign gurus, the masters of hate propaganda.”

Seen by peers as focused and intense, Magyar, who has never held elected office, positions himself as a conservative but “open to everyone else”. He said he was targeting disillusioned Fidesz voters as well as opposition supporters.

“I used to complain inside [Fidesz] about the oligarchs and the system’s unacceptable aspects, but was told to keep smiling or keep working and ignore those things,” he said. “I didn’t have a political career in mind, but this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.”

Apart from Magyar’s rising public support, Fidesz is also spooked by the potential damage his rhetoric could cause, analysts say.

“Fidesz is in crisis mode,” Róbert László of think-tank Political Capital told a diplomatic forum last week. “They try to retain their core base [but] know they are likely to lose hundreds of thousands of their 2mn-plus voters.”

Magyar took advantage of a moment of weakness for the prime minister, according to analysts. In February Orbán was forced to concede a €50bn European aid package to Ukraine that he had vehemently opposed for months. The premier was then caught in a scandal over a presidential pardon for a man convicted of covering up child sexual abuse.

When his former wife, by then lead candidate for Fidesz in the European elections stepped down over the affair, Magyar launched a campaign against cronyism in the ruling party. He drew about 100,000 people at a rally this month, and hundreds show up to meet him at campaign stops nationwide.

People with knowledge of Fidesz said Magyar’s campaign challenged Orbán’s ability to retain voters and maintain party cohesion.

“Fidesz decided for internal reasons to stop ignoring Magyar and take up the gloves,” analyst Gábor Török told the political channel Partizán. “They must discredit him because what has started here is very dangerous. It may not boost Magyar but it can undermine Fidesz.”

János Lázár, minister for construction and an Orbán ally, told local news web site 444 last week that Magyar was a force “not without dangers . . . it should not be overestimated but should not be underestimated either”.

Fidesz has sought to weaken Magyar’s appeal by portraying him as just another part of Hungary’s fragmented and weak opposition. Ágoston Mráz, head of pro-government think-tank Nézőpont, said its surveys showed that the Fidesz camp was united and remained well ahead.

“He targets Orbán, but there he has hit a brick wall,” Mráz said. “The cohesive power of the premier is unscathed, appealing to a stable 45-50 per cent of voters. We see no sign of Magyar becoming their secondary preference, which would indicate a threat to Fidesz.”

The campaign against Magyar has made him the focus of intense attention and given him a broad platform that could prove counterproductive for Fidesz, observers say.

He has called for renewed focus on the rule of law and an end to corruption — issues that have caused ructions between Budapest and Brussels, including the freezing of billions in EU funding.

But like Orbán, Magyar rejects the EU’s “double standards” and says the bloc should not force justice reforms by withholding funds.

“This is blackmail, and it is not the EU’s job to solve Hungary’s problems,” he said. “Brussels should understand, as should Washington, that pressuring Hungary is counterproductive. Orbán keeps winning partly because he maintains the appearance of this fight with Brussels.”

On Russia, too, Magyar seems to strike a middle ground between more hawkish leaders and Orbán, who has repeatedly delayed sanctions and secured carve-outs in response to the war in Ukraine.

“Severing all ties won’t lead to peace,” Magyar said, but added: “You may consider the Russian connection a good thing but we are members of [the EU] club, tied in with the western economy . . . appearances are important sometimes.”

If Tisza attained power, he said, it would not bow to the west.

“I was the first snowflake, and now we have a snowball,” Magyar said. “With a good result in June, a lot of people will start to believe, on both sides, that we can achieve something.”