【明報專訊】HONG KONG'S BATTERED STOCK AND PROPERTY MARKETS have recently both shown signs of recovery. Not only has the property market ended its ''10-month falling streak'', but the stock market has also taken a turn for the better. The Hang Seng Index briefly exceeded 18,000 points the other day, which technically can even be said to have ''entered the bull market territory''.
One of the factors contributing to the subtle changes in investor sentiment in the city's market was of course the withdrawal of property cooling measures. However, to a greater extent, it was due to the improvement of the external environment, including the steady recovery of the mainland's economy, the relatively mitigated Sino-US relations as well as the recent announcement of supportive measures by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to promote the listing of leading mainland companies in the Hong Kong market. All these are favourable to Hong Kong's financial market. Despite the uncertainties in the pace of the US's interest rate cuts and the considerable geopolitical undercurrents, the easing of external headwinds is still to some extent beneficial for Hong Kong to move forward. The authorities should seize this opportunity and take the initiative to discuss with the central government about accelerating the enhancement of market connectivity between the two regions to attract more international funds to Hong Kong.
Over the past year, Hong Kong's stock and property markets have been sandwiched between several unfavourable factors, including high US interest rates, an economic slowdown on the mainland, tense Sino-US relations and geopolitical turmoil. Funds from Europe and the US significantly decreased, and the scale of capital inflows from the mainland also diminished. The Hang Seng Index suffered an annual loss of 13.8% while the property market dropped by 6.8%. Pessimism prevailed in society, and speculations about Hong Kong being the ''ruins of a financial centre'' have caused significant reverberations both online and offline. However, in the last few weeks, there have been some sudden positive changes in investor sentiment in the market.
Since the scrapping of all property cooling measures was announced in the Budget, property transactions have notably risen over the past two months. The private flat price index in March as released by the Rating and Valuation Department showed a slight increase of 1% month-on-month, marking the first rebound since its 10-month falling streak. As for the stock market, the Hang Seng Index has been performing well recently and even briefly surpassed 18,000 points this week, marking the highest point of the year. This represents a 20% climb from its low point at the start of the year. Overall, with a continuous southbound inflow of funds from the mainland, the Hang Seng Index surged by more than 1,200 points in April. It closed at 17,763 points yesterday (30 April) with a market turnover of more than $130 billion.
The improved asset market sentiment and the rebound of the property market were certainly related to the withdrawal of ''spicy'' measures by the government. But apart from this, there have been no significant changes internally. The stock market's return to the upward trend was largely related to changes in the external environment. The steady recovery of the mainland's economy and the relatively mitigated Sino-US relations have given Hong Kong more room to ''catch its breath''. Furthermore, the CSRC's earlier announcement of the ''five new measures'' are all direct measures to support Hong Kong by the central government. They include: supporting the listing of leading mainland companies in Hong Kong, expanding the scope of eligible exchange-traded funds (ETFs) under the Stock Connect, incorporating real estate investment trusts (REITs) into the Stock Connect and including yuan-denominated securities into southbound Stock Connect.
The ''five new measures'' can enhance market connectivity between Hong Kong and the mainland and provide more options for mainland and international investors, thus bringing more liquidity to the Hong Kong market and injecting more vigour into the IPO market. As Hong Kong stocks were already undervalued, the ''five new measures'' boosted market confidence, and the funds seized the opportunity to enter the market.
明報社評 2024.05.01：逆風放緩利股市 把握時機促投資
本港股市樓市積弱多時，最近都有回暖迹象，不僅樓價結束「十連跌」，港股走勢也向好，日前還一度衝破萬八點，技術上甚至可說是「進入牛市」。
本港投資市場氣氛出現微妙變化，樓市撤辣效應固然是影響因素之一，惟更大程度還是得力於外部環境改善，內地經濟穩步回升、中美關係相對緩和，加上中證監早前公布挺港新措施，支持內地行業龍頭企業赴港上市，皆有利本港金融市場。雖然美國減息步伐仍然存在變數，地緣政治形勢也存在不少暗湧，但外圍逆風稍緩，多少有利香港前行，當局應把握時機，主動與中央商量，加快促進兩地市場互聯互通，吸引國際資金來港。
過去一年，本港樓市股市遭受美國息口高企、內地經濟放緩、中美關係緊張、地緣政治動盪等不利因素夾擊，歐美資金顯著減少，內地資金南下規模亦失色，恒指全年累跌13.8%，樓市則跌約6.8%，悲觀氣氛瀰漫，「金融中心遺址論」一類論調，在網上網下引起甚大迴響，然而最近數星期，投資市場氣氛突然出現了一些積極變化。
《財政預算案》全面撤去樓市辣招後，過去兩個月，樓市交投明顯轉旺，差估署公布3月私宅樓價指數，按月小升約1%，是連跌10個月後首度回升。股市方面，恒指近期走勢不俗，本周更一度衝破萬八點，創下今年高位，比起年初低位，升幅達兩成。總結4月份，北水持續南下，恒指累升逾1200點，昨天收市報17,763點，成交額超過1300億元。
本港資產市場氣氛改善，樓市回升當然跟政府撤辣有關，惟除此之外，內部未見有何重大變化；股市重拾升勢，很大程度還是跟外部環境變化有關。內地經濟穩步回升、中國西方關係相對緩和，讓香港有更多喘息「回氣」空間；中證監早前公布「新五條」，包括支持內地龍頭企業來港上市、放寬ETF通、落實REITs通，以及準備將人民幣雙櫃台股份納入港股通等，更是中央直接挺港的舉措。
「新五條」可促進內地和香港市場互聯互通，為內地及國際投資者提供更多選擇，從而為香港市場帶來更多流動性，以及為新股IPO市場注入更多活力。港股本已低殘，「新五條」提振了市場信心，資金亦趁機入巿。
■/ Glossary 生字 /
streak：a series of successes or failures, especially in a sport or in gambling
sandwich sb/sth between sb/sth：to fit something or someone into a very small space between two other things or people, or between two times
reverberation：the effects of something that happens, especially unpleasant ones that spread among a large number of people