With spring training camps set to open in only five weeks, the hot stove has yet to really heat up. Thirty of our top 50 free agents remain unsigned, including five of the top 10. Among those unsigned free agents: Matt Chapman. The four-time Gold Glover and two-time Platinum Glover has had as publicly quiet a market as any top free agent this offseason, or any offseason in recent memory.
Our R.J. Anderson ranked Chapman the No. 4 free agent available this winter. Here's his write-up:
The reprise of this free agent class is "yes but." It applies to Shohei Ohtani's UCL, Blake Snell's command, Cody Bellinger's ball-tracking data, and so on. In Chapman's case, it applies to his hit tool. He's a brilliant defensive third baseman with elite strength and plate discipline. He's also extremely ineffectual against elevated pitches, resulting in a well-below-average in-zone contact rate. That, plus Chapman's tendency to hit pop-ups, explains why he's so streaky. (To wit, his April OPS this season was nearly higher than the sum of his May and June OPS.) The marketplace is largely without good infielders, so someone will take the plunge and hope that he can deliver a few more years of well-above-average play. There's just more downside risk than his otherwise strong foundational skills would suggest.
Chapman, 31, had an uneven season in 2023, slashing .240/.330/.424 with 17 home runs while playing strong defense. That slash line was split into .384/.465/.687 in April and .205/.298/.361 the rest of the year, and his defense was more good than amazing. Chapman is a flawed player and a risky free agent, no doubt, but he's also better than what a lot of teams have at third base.
At some point, some team will sign Chapman to play baseball in 2024. He won't be forced into retirement. When will he sign? That I can't tell you. What I can tell you are the teams that could most use Chapman, and where he fits the best. In fact, let's rank all 30 clubs based on how much they need Chapman. Sounds good? Let's get into it.
Not happening
30. Oakland Athletics
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
28. Washington Nationals
27. Tampa Bay Rays
26. Kansas City Royals
25. Colorado Rockies
24. Cincinnati Reds
23. Chicago White Sox
For competitive or financial reasons (or both), there is no reason to think these clubs will seriously pursue Chapman. Maybe the Rockies surprise everyone like they did with Kris Bryant a few years ago, or maybe the Reds continue their sneaky aggressive offseason, but nah. We can safely assume these eight teams will not factor into the Chapman race. Onward.
Teams that already have a third baseman
22. Atlanta Braves (Austin Riley)
21. San Diego Padres (Manny Machado)
20. Texas Rangers (Josh Jung)
19. Arizona Diamondbacks (Eugenio Suárez)
18. Cleveland Guardians (José Ramírez)
17. St. Louis Cardinals (Nolan Arenado)
16. Boston Red Sox (Rafael Devers)
15. Houston Astros (Alex Bregman)
The D-backs addressed their hole at the corner with the Suárez trade a few weeks back and all the other teams have very good third basemen already. Bregman is a year away from free agency, so I suppose the Astros could do something like sign Chapman, have him and Bregman share third base and DH duty in 2024 (with Yordan Alvarez in left field full-time), then let Bregman leave as a free agent next offseason. Seems far-fetched to me. These teams can legitimately say they don't need Chapman. They're set at the hot corner.
Teams that have a third baseman, but could make it work
14. Baltimore Orioles (Gunnar Henderson and Ramón Urías)
12. Philadelphia Phillies (Alec Bohm)
11. Los Angeles Angels (Anthony Rendon)
11. Los Angeles Dodgers (Max Muncy)
10. New York Yankees (DJ LeMahieu)
9. Miami Marlins (Jake Burger)
8. Minnesota Twins (Royce Lewis)
If the season started today, these seven teams all have someone ready to man the hot corner. They also have enough roster flexibility to sign Chapman and make things work anyway. For example, the O's could put Henderson at shortstop full-time (second base would still be open for Jackson Holliday). The Phillies can move Bohm to first and put Bryce Harper back in the outfield. The Angels can made Rendon a most-of-the-time DH and see if that keeps him healthier. Ditto the Twins with Lewis. The Dodgers could put Mookie Betts back in the outfield and slide Muncy over to second base, a position he's played plenty throughout his career. LeMahieu has always fit best in a super utility role for the Yankees and Burger is likely to wind up at first base or DH full-time soon anyway. See? Nice and easy.
That said, these teams all have needs elsewhere on the roster, and it seems unlikely they'll spend significantly on Chapman when they have in-house candidates for third base. Also, I'm not sure I'd expect the Marlins, Orioles, and Twins to spend the kind of money it'll take to sign Chapman. For better or worse, the O's are sticking to a strict budget. The Marlins are the Marlins, and Minnesota is lowering payroll this offseason as they navigate the Bally Sports fallout. Point is, it's not hard to see how any of these teams could sign Chapman and make their roster work, even if they are longshots to sign him.
The sleeper team
7. Detroit Tigers
After going 78-84 and finishing second in the AL Central last year, the Tigers have invested modestly in short-term veterans this offseason (Mark Canha, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda) to improve their 2024 outlook without bogging down future payroll. And, truth be told, Detroit has a top third base prospect coming: Colt Keith. Keith played more second base than third base in Triple-A last year though, plus there's the DH spot. You don't have to squint too hard to see how the Tigers can make Chapman, Keith, and second base prospect Jace Jung (Josh's younger brother) coexist in the same lineup. Detroit has a recent history of surprise big money signings, though my hunch is they don't want to risk a repeat of the Javier Báez contract and will pass on Chapman. Still, you can see how it could work, and the Tigers have spent some money this offseason. So, maybe?
Contenders that need a third baseman
6. San Francisco Giants
Maybe it's a stretch to call the Giants a contender -- they went 79-83 and missed the postseason by five games in 2023 -- but they didn't give Jung-Hoo Lee six years and $113 million and trade for (injured) Robbie Ray with an eye on a rebuild. They want to contend this coming season and they're having a hard time convincing free agents to take their money. Chapman seems to be having a hard time finding teams to offer him money. So perhaps it's a perfect match? Don't forget Chapman has ties to Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin from their time together with the A's.
Also, crazy idea: Chapman can play shortstop for a season. He's only played a few innings here and there in his MLB career, though he's so gifted defensively that I bet he could make it work. That gives top prospect Marco Luciano more time to continue his development in the minors, then next year Chapman can slide back over to third base once J.D. Davis becomes a free agent. Hey, why not?
5. New York Mets
It's a bigger stretch to call the Mets a contender than the Giants, though this is the era of three wild-card spots. Every team is one great month away from a postseason berth. Anyway, the Mets were dealt a blow when top prospect Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL in winter ball, leaving Brett Baty and Joey Wendle as their top third base options. Baty is a recent top prospect who has mostly been overmatched at the MLB level, and Wendle is the quintessential utility guy. New president of baseball operations David Stearns has focused on short-term additions in his first offseason with the team after striking out with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and it's unlikely Chapman would sign a short-term deal. He may not fit their offseason strategy. Look at their third base situation though. Chapman would make the Mets better and is perhaps a big enough upgrade over Baty (and Wendle) to vault them into the third wild-card spot.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
I would strongly bet against the Brewers spending what it takes to sign Chapman. This is not a ranking of the teams most likely to sign him, however. It's a ranking of the best possible fits, and third base has been a revolving door in Milwaukee since Travis Shaw stopped hitting in 2018. There are questions about whether top prospect Tyler Black can play third base long-term (if not, second base and the outfield are viable fallback plans), so there's no clear-cut solution coming. Chapman would end the revolving door and, frankly, going from the incumbents (Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller) to Chapman is one of the single biggest positional upgrades any contender can make between now and spring training. It's the sort of move that can really separate the Brewers in the NL Central.
3. Seattle Mariners
After spending the early weeks of the offseason subtracting, GM Jerry Dipoto has begun to improve the team the last two weeks or so. Mitch Garver is a needed middle-of-the-order bat, Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley improve the outfield and lineup, and Anthony DeSclafani will hold down the No. 5 rotation spot capably. Seattle still needs offense though, and third base stands out as an obvious area to upgrade. Luis Urías is the in-house option and he's interesting enough. When you have one postseason berth in the last 22 years and your estimated 2024 payroll is still $20 million south of the franchise record set back in 2018, "interesting enough" doesn't cut it. Chapman would be a major upgrade for the Mariners and he wouldn't bust their payroll either.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
Chapman's most recent team stands out as one of the most obvious landing spots. Toronto signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who won the AL Gold Glove at third base in 2020, to presumably platoon with Cavan Biggio at the hot corner. Unless Biggio is platooning with Davis Schneider at second base. Point is, the Blue Jays still have a need on the infield and can rather easily slot Chapman back in at third base and into the lineup. They have money to spend -- Toronto seriously pursued the decidedly not cheap Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- and they're still looking for their first postseason win of the Bo Bichette/Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era. I don't think it's accurate to say the window is closing on this core, but I do think it's fair to say they can't kick the can down the road any longer. Bichette and Vlad Jr. will be free agents before the Blue Jays know it (after 2025).
1. Chicago Cubs
Prior to agreeing to a deal with Shota Imanaga on Tuesday, the Cubs had been the least active team in baseball this offseason. They had neither signed a major-league free agent nor added a major-league player in a trade, and this is a team that a) missed the postseason by one game in 2023, b) could lose Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman to free agency, and c) shocked the world by hiring Craig Counsell away from the NL Central rival Brewers with a record contract to begin the offseason. The Cubs didn't splurge for Counsell only to skimp on the rest of the winter, did they? Of course not. Presumably Imanaga is only the start of Chicago's hot stove activity.
Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom are the in-house answers at third base and gosh, if you could combine their skill sets (Madrigal's contact and glove with Wisdom's power), you'd have an All-Star. Baseball doesn't work like that though. As things stand, whoever the Cubs have at third base on a given day will have a glaring weakness. That isn't to say Chapman is a perfect player, but he's better than Madrigal and Wisdom. Chicago needed a bat last year and that was while getting an MVP-caliber effort from Bellinger. Third base is an obvious spot to upgrade and Chapman is out there waiting to be signed.
