PAGASA
Department of Science and Technology
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast

  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: Jun 10-16, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 17-23, 2024


Rainfall deficit of more than 100mm in CAR, Ilocos Sur and Mindoro; 20-90mm for the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Northern Mindanao while 20-60mm increase of rainfall for the rest of Mindanao. .

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over CAR, Visayas and Mindanao;
•Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over most of Mindanao and Western Visayas;
•Moderate to high over CAR, Nueva Vizcaya, La Union, Occidental Mindoro, rest of Visayas, and the westernmost of Mindanao;
•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon.


Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over Bukidnon, Lanao Provinces, North Cotabato and Zamboanga del Sur;
•Low to moderate over the rest of Mindanao;
•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: Jun 10-16, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 17-23, 2024


Near to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: Jun 10-16, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 17-23, 2024


Southwest Monsoon affecting some parts of Western Luzon. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: Jun 10-16, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 17-23, 2024


Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm is expected in northern and southern Luzon and Bukidnon while 20-80mm Increase of rainfall for the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over Visayas, Mindanao, NCR, Southern & Central Luzon, and the western section of Northern Luzon;
•Moderate to high over the rest of Northern Luzon.
•

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over most of Western Visayas and Western and Central Mindanao;
•Moderate to high over the rest of the country.


Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low to moderate across the country.
•

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: Jun 10-16, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 17-23, 2024


Near to cooler surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in central Luzon and some areas in eastern Luzon where slightly warmer to warmer than average temperature is expected.

Initial Condition: Jun 10-16, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 17-23, 2024


Southwest Monsoon affecting western sections of Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country .



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 02, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 03-09, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, and eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where above normal rainfall is more likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 02, 2024
Week Validity: June 10-16, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Mindanao while Mindoro, Palawan, Visayas and Caraga Region will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in with patches of below normal rainfall in Panay island and western Mindanao.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in with patches of below normal rainfall in Panay island and western Mindanao.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 02, 2024
Week Validity: June 17-30, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Panay Island where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay and Negros Island and some areas in Caraga Region and southern Mindanao while southern Luzon, eastern Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay and Negros Island and some areas in Caraga Region and southern Mindanao while southern Luzon, eastern Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 02, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 03-11, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern Luzon and some areas in southern Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern Luzon and some areas in central and southern Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

GEFS Archive
NCEP Archive

For Particulars, please contact:

MS. ANA LIZA S. SOLIS


Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921

E-mail: asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph