PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: May 28, 2024

Week Validity: May 29- Jun 04, 2024

Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm is expected in Mt. Province, Ifugao, southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao while 40-100mm increase of rainfall for the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Luzon (except Bicol and Southern Quezon), Mindanao, Samar provinces and the western section of Visayas;

•Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Bicol region, Samar Provinces, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga del Norte, Bukidnon and Lanao provinces;

•Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over the western sections of Central and Northern Luzon;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over the western section of Northern Luzon;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;

•Low over Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low to moderate over the western and central Luzon;

•Low over the rest of Luzon , Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: May 28, 2024

Week Validity: May 29- Jun 04, 2024

Slightly warmer average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in Cagayan, (cooler) and central Luzon (near average).

Initial Condition: May 28, 2024

Week Validity: May 29- Jun 04, 2024

Southwest Monsoon affecting western Luzon. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: May 28, 2024

Week Validity: Jun 05-11, 2024

Increase of rainfall of more than 100mm is expected in most parts of Luzon; 40-80mm in Isabela, CAR, Palawan, Bicol Region, and Panay Island, while the rest of the country will likely have 20-80mm rainfall deficit.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over Luzon

•Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over most of Luzon;

•Moderate to high over the Palawan, southern Quezon, Antique, Iloilo, and Bicol region;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the Visayas

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•High to very high over most of western and central Luzon (except Palawan);

•Moderate to high over the rest of northern Luzon, Antique, and the rest of southern Luzon;

•Low to moderate over Mindanao and the rest of the Visayas

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•High to very high over most of western and central Luzon (except Palawan);

•Moderate to high over the rest of central and northern Luzon, Antique, and the rest of southern Luzon;

•Low to moderate over Mindanao and the rest of the Visayas

•

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to high over most of western Luzon (except Palawan);

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;

•Low over Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: May 28, 2024

Week Validity: Jun 05-11, 2024

Cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon while most parts of Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao will likely have slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature.

Initial Condition: May 28, 2024

Week Validity: Jun 05-11, 2024

Southwest Monsoon affecting western sections of Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country .

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 19, 2024

Week Validity: May 20-26, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and eastern Visayas while Bicol Region and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 19, 2024

Week Validity: May 27 – June 02, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and central Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Apayao, Mindoro and eastern Visayas where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in central and southern Luzon, and Mindoro where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 19, 2024

Week Validity: June 03-16, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in some areas in northern and central Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Samar provinces will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, some areas in central Luzon, Quezon, and western Visayas while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, and patches of below normal rainfall in central Luzon, Quezon, Bicol Region, and Leyte provinces and western Visayas while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 19, 2024

Week Validity: June 20-28, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of while Bicol Region, Mindoro, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.