GTA gas prices increase to $1.81 this weekend, could reach $2 by January: analyst

Gas prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) increased to just above $1.80 on Saturday and could reach $2 by January, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy Dan McTeague said. 

"We're at [$1.77] cents a litre for most gas stations here in the GTA and they are going to go up another four cents a litre for Saturday, bringing us back to [$1.81], McTeague told CBC Toronto on Friday.

"That's a number that many of us would have to reach back a couple of months to recall. We haven't seen those prices since about the 28th of July."

McTeague says prices have increased by around 20 cents this week, and this has left many people wondering "if this is the beginning of what could be a surge in prices."

Gas prices in the GTA reached a high of $2.16 back in June.

McTeague says the current increase in prices is due to "a bit of a correction in energy markets."

According to McTeague, markets have been very focused on economic problems around the world, the outlook of an economy that appears to be slowing down, concern over high oil, gasoline, diesel and other energy prices, and COVID-19 lockdowns in China.

He said while all of these things impacted energy prices, "it's becoming very clear that the energy markets are starting to really consider the proverbial elephant in the room, and that's a shortage in supply."

Elizabeth Kharkivsky, a university student who commutes to London, Ont., once a month, says the increases have left her feeling "not good."

"It's a little bit outrageous," she told CBC Toronto.

"I drive to and from London so I have to fill it up quite a bit. It very much sucks, I'm dropping a lot more money than I usually am."

Kharkivsky says with the price increases, she will only be driving to places that she needs to be.

"I will be staying inside and not driving anywhere," she said.

Parry Sohi, the owner of a gelato shop in Mississauga says "it's been difficult."

While gas prices fluctuate, Sohi says the cost of diesel has remained around $2 a litre since summer. He says this has meant putting a pause on deliveries, something he can't afford to do this winter.

"There's a huge rise in demand for our product … in terms of home deliveries, during the winter time," he said.

"Unfortunately we don't have a choice right now  but to deal with the inflation and absorb that cost."

$2-a-litre possible by January 

Meanwhile, McTeague says oil prices will not remain at $75 or $77 a barrel, adding that $2 per litre for gas is possible by January.

"I think we could hit $1.85 next week, maybe a little higher. Or we could be as low as $1.75," he said.

"I think we're sort of in that tipping point where markets may take a bit of a breather."

But he said November will be "a mug's game"  and could see the GTA "marching toward $1.90-a-litre."

McTeague says the province has to make a decision whether or not it's going to reimpose the tax abatement — of 6.4 with HST — that it had put in place.

"That could be another contributing factor toward driving the price of gasoline here in Toronto, the GTA and across Ontario back to the $2 a litre range," he said.

And what's his advice to drivers?

"I always gas up on the weekends, usually in the evening," McTeague said.

"I often follow my own advice. If I know two days in advance … take advantage of those two-day heads up because it does save you in the end.

"This week of course, being a prime example, the two day heads up and predictions save most as much as 13 to 15 cents a litre depending on their gas station," he added.