Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is looking to put together one or two more quality seasons before his career winds down. Can he post WR2 numbers on a run-first offense? What is his fantasy football projection?
Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
DeAndre Hopkins’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
For my money, Hopkins belongs in the Hall of Fame. He’s been one of the best wide receivers of the past decade. From 2015-2020, Hopkins finished lower than WR5 just once. He was that dominant.
Hopkins is now 31 years old. He averaged 14.7 PPR fantasy points per game in 2021 and 16.9 ppg last year. The 16.9 ppg was good for a top-10 finish but still lower than the elite guy we saw during the second half of the 2010s.
The best version of Hopkins was on the Texans. That was two teams ago. In recent years, the Titans have been where old wide receivers go to retire. From Andre Johnson to Julio Jones to Robert Woods, Hopkins hopes not to be the latest in formerly great wide receivers to fade into obscurity while in Tennessee.
At 31 years old, decline is a very real risk for Hopkins. We saw some of this in 2021. However, Hopkins was able to bounce back last year. He wasn’t quite Texans Hopkins, but he still looked every bit capable of being an NFL team’s WR1.
Hopkins commanded a 29.4% target share. He averaged a very respectable 2.21 yards per route run. And he absolutely dominated man coverage. Most wide receivers can find holes in a zone. The ability to dominate man coverage suggests Hopkins still has it.
The reason Hopkins isn’t being valued like the WR1 he was last year is due to several factors. First, he’s 31 years old. If he completely fell off a cliff this season, it would be far from shocking.
Second, Hopkins hasn’t been able to stay on the field. We saw this happen with Julio, too. These are guys who historically played through nagging injuries. Once you turn 30, it gets a lot harder to do so.
Hopkins missed all of one game his entire career up until 2021. He missed seven games in 2021 and eight last year (although six were due to suspension).
Third, he’s on the Titans. In Houston and Arizona, Hopkins was the clear WR1 on teams that wanted to throw. The Titans ran the ball 50% of the time in a neutral game script last season, the seventh-highest rate in the league. The offense revolves around Derrick Henry. Hopkins may very well maintain an elite target share, but the total target pie is going to be smaller.
Additionally, there’s the added risk of the Titans being bad and Ryan Tannehill getting benched for rookie Will Levis. I don’t think Tannehill is particularly good, but rookie QBs are very bad for WRs. If you’re drafting Hopkins, you want Tannehill to retain the starting job.
Should You Draft DeAndre Hopkins This Year?
Hopkins finds himself right smack in the middle of the very flat group of WRs that go in Rounds 4-6. He has a WR20 ADP, No. 51 overall.
I’ve gone back and forth on Hopkins a lot. Ultimately, I settled on this: I don’t think Treylon Burks is particularly good. He’s also now slated to miss the start of the season with an LCL sprain. That leaves Hopkins as the only guy.
Even in a run-first offense, Hopkins has the potential to see a truly elite target share. Tannehill is a competent quarterback.
As a result, I moved Hopkins up to WR22, which is a little ahead of PFN’s consensus rankings, which have him at WR26. As a group, we are below market on Hopkins, but I’m certainly warming to him.
I like a lot of the middle-round WRs. And it wouldn’t shock me if Hopkins found his way into the top 18. While I typically prefer younger receivers with more upside or veteran receivers on better offenses, Hopkins is looking more appealing by the day.
Given the flatness of the Round 4-6 WRs, whether I end up with Hopkins largely depends on how excited the rest of the draft room is to take him. If he’s the right guy at the right spot, I won’t be afraid to push the button.