May 1, 2024 Update
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton
What you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho metro area, my charts have 15+ years of data showing history, current conditions and major trends in the local housing markets to help you judge the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly.
Highlights from April
Interest rates have risen 5 weeks in a row, with a small silver lining for buyers- a 15% increase in available listings during April. Contract signings increased only slightly in Ada County for the month, while Canyon County remained steady, causing overall housing supply based on the pace of sales to climb from a 1.1-month supply to a 1.24-month supply by the end of April. Rising supply is unusual for this time of year as May & June are typically the busiest months for home sales in the Boise area.
While the entire Treasure Valley continues to experience a very low-supply seller's market, Nampa & Star are still the tightest markets in the Boise Metro with a 1-month or less supply of homes today. With the continued tight supply, I expect home prices to be up in the second quarter, but much depends on interest rates. There is hope that rates will ease later in the year, but that is far from a certainty.
Mortgage Rates Update
Here is a 50-year history of the annual average on mortgage rates according to Freddie Mac and where we are today. The 50-year average is 7.65%, so today's rate of 7.22% is still below average.
This next chart shows the weekly Freddie Mac survey average for the last year. Some have predicted rates will settle in the low sixes this year, but I would not wait to buy on that gamble. Inflation, job markets, treasury yields and the Fed all play a role in a very complex equation that make mortgage rates almost impossible to predict.
Housing Inventory in Boise Metro
This chart of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties shows how extreme the inventory crunch has been in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. Since peaking in 2008 when prices were falling, the number of available listings have trended lower each year until Covid.
These are all available listings in Ada & Canyon County on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction. Covid in 2020 and doubling interest rates in 2022 have caused some wild swings over the last 4 years, yet inventory remains near the low end of the scale. It is important to note, the actual available to occupy inventory is much lower than it appears here, as many are to-be-built or under construction. See pie charts below for breakdowns of available inventory.
Boise Idaho Metro Homes Sales
Sales are a trailing indicator on the market- the actual marketing and sale happened under conditions at least a month prior to the majority of sales. Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, with the peaks and valleys moving upward over time in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.
These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows new construction in Ada County. You can clearly see the Covid spike in early 2020 and the downward trend in home sales since mortgage rates started rising in early 2022. This year so far remains rather soft for home sales in Ada County.
Canyon County market trends have roughly mirrored Ada, but home sales have been slightly stronger here, due to more affordable prices. Canyon County new construction is also showing more momentum than Ada. That big dip in the middle was the snowy cold winter of 2017.
Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices
Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels.
Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. If no more homes were listed, at the current pace of sales we would run out in just 1.24 months. Still very much a seller's market. We should be seeing strong appreciation during these peak months. Pent-up demand is still clashing with low inventory, but mortgage rates are providing some headwinds this year.
Ada County, Idaho
Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale. Below is the current snapshot of all homes for sale in Ada County.
Available existing home and new construction listings are trending upward in Ada County, thanks to rising mortgage rates for 5 weeks straight. There are 217 more homes on the market this month in Ada County- 1635 total. Of those, 787 are new construction, including 275 under construction and 400 complete. New construction again accounts for 48% of available homes. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.
Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid-year in favorable weather. My chart starts with 5 years of ever-tightening seller's market, then a wildcard Covid year. Then interest rates doubled in 2022 causing available existing homes to spike, but that bubble evaporated quickly.
Ada County today has 787 new homes available, up 92 from the prior month. This represents a 2.7-month absorption rate at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 284 closed last month.
The cheapest stick-built new home available in Ada County was $319,900 for a condo. All Ada County new homes- median sold price for April was $559,945. Average was $596,371.
Foreclosures and short sales have been very rare in SW Idaho for the last decade, but there are now 2 foreclosed homes and 3 short sales available in Ada County.
Boise, Idaho
The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho and Idaho's capital city, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.
For April, Boise had 313 existing home sales (Med $487,000 Avg $574,176 Avg days on market 20, median 6)
This chart shows the count of active and pending (under contract) home listings on the first day of each month, illustrating the velocity of listings and sales. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.
Contract signings ticked upward slightly and active listings increased more in Boise for the month. The lines are no longer inverted, but remain very close together, indicating a tight market. Boise now has only a 1.22 month supply.
These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 548 total homes for sale to start the month, up 49 from the month prior. New construction now makes up 29% of the available pie.
Meridian, Idaho
Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise with similar home prices.
For April, Meridian had 115 existing homes sold (Med $539,900 Avg $597,420 Avg days on market 20, median 9)
Available listings (blue line) increased and pending contracts (red line) rose last month in Meridian, but the lines are still very close together, indicating a very tight market.
Meridian had 425 total homes listed for sale to start the month, adding 40 from the previous month. New construction now makes up 55% of the available pie with 73 homes under way and 135 completed.
Eagle, Idaho
With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find many of the largest, most expensive homes.
For April, Eagle had 55 existing homes sold (Med $662,500 Avg $853,215 Avg days on market 29, median 6)
Contract signings in Eagle levelled off, while available listings jumped last month.
Eagle had 258 total homes for sale to start the month, adding 73 homes from the previous month. Now 42% of the available homes are new construction, including 45 homes completed and 33 under construction.
Star, Idaho
A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.
For April, Star had 28 existing homes sold (Med $572,450 Avg $670,262 Avg days on market 22, median 10)
Available listings rose in Star last month as contract signings levelled off, mostly on new homes. Star now has less than a 1-month supply of homes for sale at the current pace of sales.
Star's total inventory was 211 homes for sale to start the month. That's up 20 from the month prior. Now 79% of the available pie in Star is new construction with 93 under way and 57 completed and available.
Kuna, Idaho
Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little downtown and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is catching up to residential around Kuna.
For April, Kuna had 35 existing home sales (Med $424,900 Avg $482,931 Avg days on market 13, median 5)
Available listings surged and contract signings weakened in Kuna last month. Supply has grown to 1.36 months at the current pace of sales- still tight.
Kuna available listings totaled 193 homes to start the month, adding 35 from the month prior. Again 65% of the available homes are new construction. Builders have 73 homes finished and 43 more under way.
Canyon County, Idaho
Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.
On May 1, there were 975 total homes for sale in Canyon County, up 138 from the month prior. Of those, 483 are new construction including 205 homes completed and 174 under way. The cheapest new stick-built home available in Canyon was $336,900. All new homes sold in April- median $441,490 Average $526,978.
Existing home listings surged again last month, while builders finished a few more. This might be a good time to look at new homes in Canyon County. Several large builders are offering big incentives to help with closing costs or rate buy-downs. Ask me about this.
Nampa, Idaho
With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub of Canyon County. The housing market here suffered with higher rates but will soon recover with such tight inventory.
For April, Nampa had 146 existing home sales (Med $391,750 Avg $448,907 Avg days on market 26, median 9)
Nampa is the second tightest market in the Treasure Valley, as the lines are again inverted, reflecting less than a 1-month supply. Available listings and contract signings both increased slightly last month.
Nampa had 476 total homes for sale on May 1st, adding 35 from the previous month. A batch of 73 homes are under construction and 145 new never occupied homes await buyers here. Now 54% of the available pie is new construction.
Caldwell, Idaho
Home of the world famous rodeo, a budding wine industry and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.
For April, Caldwell had 63 existing home sales (Med $360,000 Avg $398,708 Avg days on market 20, median 7)
Contract signings levelled off while available listings (mostly new constr) surged last month. Caldwell inventory remains tight, now just a 1.6-month supply.
Caldwell had 276 total homes for sale on May 1st. That is up 61 homes from the previous month. New construction remains at 54% of the available pie this month with 35 completed homes awaiting buyers and 76 more under way.
Middleton, Idaho
At the far northwestern edge of the Boise Metro, Middleton is a small but growing town with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage that make the home prices seem higher.
For April, Middleton had 29 existing homes sold (Med $600,000 Avg $641,916 Avg days on market 55, median 42)
Contract signings eased and new listings increased last month. Middleton now has just a 1.3-month supply, very tight market.
Middleton had 148 total homes for sale on May 1st, up 15 from the previous month. The new construction segments represent 51% of the available pie with 22 under construction and 25 completed homes available.
All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.