2024 Presidential Election Consensus Forecast - 270toWin

2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map

As of May 31, 2024

This map will track the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Only seats rated safe by all are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party.

As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.

The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

May 31: No changes

For those interested, we have a separate map that only considers polling. In using that map, keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.

no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Trump Leads in Nevada

A new Fox News poll in Nevada finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in the presidential...

Senators Dominate Trump’s VP Shortlist

“Donald Trump’s search for a running mate has reached a more intensive phase,...

Trump Can’t Carry a Gun But Could Control Nukes

“Donald Trump’s license to carry a gun is about to be revoked by the New York...

Trump Wants January 6 Committee Members Indicted

Donalld Trump fumed over a federal judge ordering his longtime ally Steve Bannon...

Biden Tries to Win with Old-School Campaign Offices

Boston Globe: “Biden campaign officials have sought to leverage their early...

Headlines

Live Results: Primaries in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota

June 4, 2024

Several down-ballot races of note, along with the final state-run presidential primaries of this cycle.

Overview and Live Results: Texas Primary Runoff Elections

May 28, 2024

30 runoffs for U.S. House and State Legislative seats where no candidate received a majority in the March 5 primary

Idaho Democratic Caucus Results

May 24, 2024

Joe Biden received 95%, winning all 23 pledged delegates

Live Results: Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon Primaries

May 21, 2024

Four states hold their down-ballot primaries this Tuesday, with presidential contests also on the ballot in Kentucky and Oregon

Overview and Live Results: California Congressional District 20 Special Election

May 20, 2024

The winner will complete the term of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned at the end of last year.