The current conflict is “a struggle between democracy and tyranny,” with the West on one side, Russia, China and Iran on the other. Russia is deepening its ties with Iran, while China is harnessing the widening divide between Washington and the global south. SCO and BRICS are helping Iran, Russia and China to bond. This new “triad of evil" has all it takes to pull the hegemon into a predicament.
The Middle East and Russia
Iran and Russia
Iran provides weapons to Russia and fights Israel through its proxies, and recently with a direct attack from Iranian soil. Washington needs a new strategy that recognizes Iran’s proxies as a network of terrorism.
In addition to providing hundreds of millions of dollars annually to Hamas, Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Iranian regime's Quds Force has said to Hamas, "we will not allow the enemy to reach its dirty goals in Gaza and Palestine. We assure you that we will do whatever it takes in this historic battle." Iran’s goal is to export the Islamic revolution in order to challenge America in military, diplomatic and economic terms.
Military and trade investments between Iran and Russia
Iran is now a critical military supplier to Russia. In November 2023, Tehran announced that it would be receiving Russian Su-35 fighter jets as well as Mi-28 attack helicopters. Most recent reports of a potential transfer of the anti-aircraft system Pantsir S-1 from the Wagner Group in Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon are further examples of Russia’s efforts to enable continued escalation.
But should Iran become embroiled in a wider conflict, it may not be able to provide the same level of support to Russia. Western sanctions against Iran are in Russia’s interests as Russia intends to invest $40 billion in Iran’s gas and oil sector. Iran and Russia have already signed a $6.5 billion deal as part of this investment program to develop Iranian gas and oil fields. If Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to keep fighting in Ukraine and survive economic isolation from the Western-led economic order, he may have little option but to turn east.
Weakening impact of Russia in Syria
Syria remains the centerpiece of Russian policy in the Middle East. Russia has few connections and no control over the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s activities in Syria, and their weakening interoperability impacts the broader agenda of the strategic partnership, which stops short of maturing into an alliance. On the ground in Syria, a portion of the Russian forces in the country has been relocated closer to the Israeli border.
Qatar-Russia trade deals
Russia has proposed to diversify mutual trade with Qatar and switch to the use of national currencies. This latest development comes as part of a growing de-dollarization trend sweeping the region, which Russia is looking to capitalize on in trade with Arab states.
In February this year, Iraq’s central bank announced that it would allow trade with Beijing to be settled directly in Chinese currency for the first time. The following month, the UAE settled its first gas deal with Beijing in Chinese yuan.
American assistance against Iran
Iran cannot win a conventional war against the U.S. nor conquer Israel as long as America remains in the region. Jerusalem and Washington should therefore force the regime to feel the costs. This should include a more targeted campaign against Iran and its proxies as more expansive sanctions, oil price changes and other macroeconomic distractions would undermine its resources. Israel and America should apply enough pressure to force Iran to take control over Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, which Iran could not sustain financially, leading to its demise.
Russia and terrorist actors
Russia and Hamas
Russian Premier Mikhail Mishustin reinforced the Russia-Iran strategic partnership in October 2023, meeting Iran’s First Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber two weeks after the Israel-Gaza war broke out.
On November 1, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzia said that Israel is an occupying state that has no right to defend itself. In March 2024, Moscow hosted terrorist organizations including Hamas, Fatah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
For Gilad Erdan, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, “Russia is one of the only places outside the Middle East where Hamas terrorists and Houthi jihadists are given red-carpet treatment.” This latest meeting comes when Russia is completely marginalized by the West on Ukraine.
Hezbollah and Russia
Hezbollah supplies Russia with recruits for the Ukrainian conflict while receiving in return the opportunity to procure modern weaponry, including missiles for its attacks against Israel. Hezbollah has gained access to modern weaponry, including missiles, from Russia. Hezbollah's drone operators are training Russian military personnel and local mercenaries who have signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Houthis and Russia
The Houthis reportedly assured Beijing and Moscow that their ships would not be targeted in the Red Sea. In any case, Russia remains too big of an actor for the Houthis to ignore. In the future, it is conceivable that Russia could become involved in Yemen’s security landscape in opaque ways—drawing on lessons from the Wagner private military company to advance its interests such as in Libya, Sudan and Syria.
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Palestinian solidarity rally in Houthi-controlled Sana'a, Yemen
(Photo: EPA/YAHYA ARHAB)
China and the East’s positioning for power
China has been focusing on harnessing the widening divide between Washington and the global south vis-a-vis the war in Israel to boost its own foreign-policy ambitions, outwardly framing itself as a peacemaker. But their proposed peace plan charged the UN Security Council (UNSC)—and not Beijing—with responsibility for resolving the conflict and the November BRICS summit failed to generate any joint statement so their actions thus far appear mostly performative.
Russia and North Korea
Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korea’s Supreme Leader, Kim Jong Un, to forge a deal that provided Russian troops with much-needed ammunition and other war materials in exchange for more advanced technology for Pyongyang. The heightened threat of any North Korean missile attack incentivizes both Japan and South Korea to avoid alienating Beijing. In the case of a nuclear-armed Iran, the same could also apply to Russia.
China and Iran
Similarly to Russia, China is fostering relations with Iran. Premier Li Qiang said, “China will continue to support Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty, and will strongly oppose any external forces interfering in Iran’s internal affairs.”
A key Russian-Iran strategy is control of the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, which transits at least 20% of the world’s oil each day. Iran now sells 90% of its oil to China in spite of global sanctions, and this serves as a signal to the U.S. that its sanctions are a mere recommendation.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Joe Biden and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi
(Photo: EPA, Sputnik/Mikhail Tereshchenko/Pool via REUTERS)
China at the UNSC – leveraging the global south
At the UNSC in October, Russia and China vetoed a U.S.-drafted resolution that supported Israel’s right to defend itself. In December, Beijing leveraged another UNSC vote pushing for a cease-fire to further position itself alongside the global south. Beijing again aligned itself with the global south in South Africa’s case against Israel in the International Court of Justice in another attempt to show the West that it does not monopolize leadership.
SCO and BRICS collaboration aiding the Axis
Meanwhile, SCO and BRICS have helped Iran, Russia and China to bond more closely, dominated by their diplomacy based on self-interest without Western interference. With the West becoming increasingly polarized over the Israel conflict, the global south appears more attracted to Beijing’s multipolar order where democracy no longer rules. The liberal world order may transform into a regional order set by China and this narrative points to a power struggle for the West.
Facing this convergence of evil, what does the international community do? UN envoy Erdan accused the UNSC of failing to rise to the defense of both Ukraine and Israel, warning that if this pattern continues, it risks “losing all legitimacy.”
Jennifer TealeHis words emphasize the shift in Israeli policy toward Moscow. “The entire UN system is being held hostage by political interests ”, he said.
It is paralyzed in the face of violence. Facing this new landscape of international challenges, the UN cannot keep its policy of inaction and appeasement. It is ever more clear today, though, that Israel must preserve its ability to defend itself by itself while striving to fashion the foreign policy of like-minded countries to tackle this axis and present a united front. While the West sits on the sidelines, the axis of evil does not cease its aggression.