Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024

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Arizona's 2nd Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: April 1, 2024
	Primary: July 30, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.; Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Solid Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican; Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	Arizona's 2nd Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th; Arizona elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

Arizona 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Supreme court • Appellate courts • State ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Recalls • How to run for office

All U.S. House districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Arizona, are holding elections in 2024. The general election is November 5, 2024. The primary is July 30, 2024. The filing deadline was April 1, 2024.

The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. House in 2025.

All 435 seats are up for election. Republicans have a 218 to 213 majority with four vacancies.^[1] As of May 2024, 44 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 45.3% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 53.2%.^[2]

Ballotpedia identified the July 30 Republican primary as a battleground primary. For more on the Republican primary, click here.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Candidates and election results

General election

The primary will occur on July 30, 2024. The general election will occur on November 5, 2024. General election candidates will be added here following the primary.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2

Jonathan Nez is running in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on July 30, 2024.

		Candidate
		Jonathan Nez

	There are no incumbents in this race.
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Lindsay Bowe (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2

Incumbent Eli Crane and Jack Smith are running in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on July 30, 2024.

		Candidate
		Eli Crane
		Jack Smith

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined.
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Walter Blackman (R)

Libertarian primary election

There are no candidates on the ballot in the Libertarian primary at this time.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

David Bies (L)

July 30 Republican primary

See also: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 (July 30 Republican primary)

Ballotpedia identified the July 30 Republican primary as a battleground primary. For more on the Democratic primary, click here. For more on the Republican primary, click here.

Incumbent Eli Crane (R) and Jack Smith (R) are running in the Republican primary in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District on July 30, 2024.

Crane was one of eight House Republicans who voted to remove Kevin McCarthy (R) as Speaker of the House in October 2023. According to Politico, McCarthy allies identified Crane as one of three Republicans most vulnerable to a primary challenge as part of an effort "to marshal the former speaker’s considerable donor network on behalf of Republican primary candidates who are deemed strong enough to pose a credible threat to one of the eight."^[3]

Crane says Smith is running because "I kept my word when I stood up to the GOP Establishment, and voted to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker...doing the right thing in a place where the status quo is reliant on wrongdoing never earns you too many friends. In fact, it has now earned me a primary challenger that has the full backing of the RINO establishment."^[4] In an interview with the Sedona Red Rock News, Smith declined to say whether he would have voted to remove McCarthy.^[5]

First elected in 2022, Crane is a veteran and owner of a manufacturing business. Crane says he is Donald Trump's strongest supporter and "a faith-oriented, family man...pro-life, pro-second amendment, and unafraid to take a stand against cancel culture and the radical left."^[6] Crane says he is being "targeted by the uniparty for fighting for AZ-02...Once they realize you’re not going to join their team, they move to get rid of you however they can."^[7]

Smith is a veteran and former Yavapai County Commissioner who served as the Arizona state director for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's rural development program under President Donald Trump (R). Smith says he is running because "we need a conservative who understands rural Arizona and is willing to fight for rural Arizona," criticizing Crane for living in a Tucson suburb.^[8] Smith is running on his experience, saying "if you really roll your sleeves up and dig in, you can really make an impact. I did that as a county supervisor."^[5]

As of April 30, 2024, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball each rated the general election Safe/Solid Republican. Crane defeated incumbent Tom O'Halleran (D) 53.9%–46.1% in 2022.

All 435 seats are up for election. Republicans have a 218 to 213 majority with four vacancies.^[9] As of May 2024, 44 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 45.3% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 53.2%.^[10]

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff compiled a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Eli Crane

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office:

U.S. House Arizona District 2 (Assumed office: 2023)

Biography: After attending Arizona Western College and the University of Arizona, Crane served 13 years in the U.S. Navy. Crane founded Bottle Breacher, a manufacturer of novelty bottle openers, after leaving the Navy.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Crane said his policy priorities were securing the border, expanding care for veterans, opposing instruction in Critical Race Theory and similar initiatives in schools and the military, and lowering rates of taxation and spending.

Crane said his primary challenger had support from establishment politicians, saying he had been "targeted by the uniparty for fighting for AZ-02...Once they realize you’re not going to join their team, they move to get rid of you however they can."

Crane said he had a record of service to his community and the district that included his service in the military and in Congress as well as his volunteer work with veterans' organizations.

Show sources

Sources: Eli Crane 2024 campaign website, "Home page," accessed April 30, 2024; Eli Crane 2024 campaign website, "About," accessed April 30, 2024; Eli Crane 2024 campaign website, "Issues," accessed April 30, 2024; Facebook, "Eli Crane for Congress on April 26, 2024," accessed April 30, 2024; Eli Crane 2024 campaign website, "About," accessed April 30, 2024; Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "CRANE, Eli," accessed April 30, 2024; Bottle Breacher; "Our Process," accessed April 30, 2024

Jack Smith

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office:

Yavapai County Board of Supervisors District 5 (2012–2019)

Biography: Smith obtained a bachelor's degree in Christian studies from Grand Canyon University. Smith served eight years in the U.S. Army and worked as a transportation manager with Pepsi Bottling Group and Ace Hardware. Smith served as the U.S. Department of Agriculture's director for rural development in Arizona under President Donald Trump (R).

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Smith said he was "a REAL CONSERVATIVE who knows rural Arizona, lives in rural Arizona, and WILL ALWAYS FIGHT FOR RURAL ARIZONA," and that he was running for the district because it needed a representative who understood rural life. Smith said he had lived in rural Arizona for many years and had worked on rural issues for the Trump Administration.

Smith said Crane did not understand rural Arizona because Crane lived in a suburb of Tucson. Smith said Crane had "made the selfish decision to put his own interests above his constituents" during his first term.

Smith said his policy priorities were securing the border, ensuring election results reflected the votes cast by qualified voter, fighting "to end the cancer of wokeness that has infected so much of our society," reducing rates of taxation and spending, and supporting the military and veterans.

Show sources

Sources: Jack Smith 2024 campaign website, "Home page," accessed April 30, 2024; Facebook, "Jack Smith for Congress on April 5, 2024," accessed April 30, 2024; Jack Smith 2024 campaign website, "Home page," accessed April 30, 2024; U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Development, "Jack Smith Appointed AZ State Director," July 8, 2019

See more

See more here: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 (July 30 Republican primary)

Candidate profiles

There are currently no candidate profiles created for this race. Candidate profiles will appear here as they are created. Encourage the candidates in this race to complete Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey so that their profile will appear here.

Voting information

See also: Voting in Arizona

Election information in Arizona: July 30, 2024, election.

What is the voter registration deadline?

In-person: July 1, 2024
By mail: Received by July 1, 2024
Online: July 1, 2024

Is absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

N/A

What is the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

In-person: July 19, 2024
By mail: Received by July 19, 2024
Online: July 19, 2024

What is the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

In-person: July 30, 2024
By mail: Received by July 30, 2024

Is early voting available to all voters?

N/A

What are the early voting start and end dates?

July 3, 2024 to July 26, 2024

Are all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, is a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When are polls open on Election Day?

6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race has completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Ballotpedia is seeking 100 percent participation so voters can learn more about all the candidates on their ballots.

Campaign finance

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Eli Crane	Republican Party	$3,935,292	$2,625,043	$1,376,504	As of March 31, 2024
Jonathan Nez	Democratic Party	$380,267	$154,214	$226,052	As of March 31, 2024
Jack Smith	Republican Party	$1,350	$0	$1,350	As of March 31, 2024
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[11]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[12]^[13]^[14]

Race ratings: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	June 4, 2024	May 28, 2024	May 21, 2024	May 14, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Arizona in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arizona, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
Arizona	U.S. House	Democratic	1,563^[15]	N/A	4/8/2024	Source
Arizona	U.S. House	Republican	1,639^[16]	N/A	4/8/2024	Source
Arizona	U.S. House	Libertarian	826^[17]	N/A	4/8/2024	Source
Arizona	U.S. House	Unaffiliated	4,832^[18]	N/A	4/8/2024	Source

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Competitiveness
Presidential elections

State party control

Below is the district map in place for this election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Arizona.

Arizona U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Year	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	9	9	2	38	18	2	6	44.4%	3	37.5%
2022	9	9	1	40	18	2	7	50.0%	2	25.0%
2020	9	9	0	38	18	7	5	66.7%	4	44.4%
2018	9	9	2	37	18	5	5	55.6%	3	42.9%
2016	9	9	2	33	18	5	6	61.1%	4	57.1%
2014	9	9	1	25	18	1	4	27.8%	1	12.5%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Arizona in 2024. Information below was calculated on May 26, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Thirty-eight candidates ran for Arizona’s nine U.S. House districts, including 16 Democrats and 22 Republicans. That’s 4.22 candidates per district. There were 4.33 candidates per district in 2022, 4.22 candidates per district in 2020, and 4.11 in 2018.

The 3rd and 8th Congressional Districts were open in 2024. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-03) ran for the U.S. Senate, and Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-08) ran for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

Nine candidates—six Democrats and three Republicans—ran for the 1st Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a seat in Arizona in 2024.

Eight primaries—two Democratic and six Republican—were contested in 2024. That's the fewest since 2014, when five primaries were contested.

Three incumbents—all Republicans—were in contested primaries in 2024.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all nine districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is . This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were the national average. This made Arizona's 2nd the district nationally.^[19]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Arizona's 2nd based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
45.3%	53.2%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[20] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
45.0	53.6	R+8.6

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Arizona, 2020

Arizona presidential election results (1900-2020)

9 Democratic wins
19 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	N/A	N/A	N/A	D	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	D

See also: Party control of Arizona state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Arizona's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Arizona
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	1	3	4
Republican	0	6	6
Independent	1	0	1
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	9	11

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Arizona's top three state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Arizona, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Katie Hobbs
Secretary of State	Adrian Fontes
Attorney General	Kris Mayes

State legislature

Arizona State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	14
	Republican Party	16
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		30

Arizona House of Representatives

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	28
	Republican Party	31
	Other	0
	Vacancies	1
Total		60

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until 2024.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D
Senate	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

District history

The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.