Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict By Frances Stewart 1 The opinions expressed in this Presentation are those of the authors’ and do not necessarily represent those of the UNDP, the United Nations (UN), or any of its affiliated organisations. The text and data in this Presentation may be reproduced for non-commercial purposes with attribution to the copyright holder. Inequality and Conflict ‘Remove the secondary causes that have produced the great convulsions of the world and you will almost always find the principle of inequality at the bottom. Either the poor have attempted to plunder the rich, or the rich to enslave the poor. If, then, a society can ever be founded in which everyman shall have something to keep and little to take from others, much will have been done for peace’ (de Tocqueville 1835, quote from 1954 edition,: 266) 3 Plan • Horizontal inequalities: what they are; how they may relate to conflict. • Review of some of our findings • Policy implications 4 Trends in violent conflicts • Number of serious wars rising since 1950. • Mostly within countries • Acceleration immediately after 1989 (end Cold War). • Substantial decline over last decade. • But proportion of ‘ethnic’ conflict rising 5 Number of conflicts by level: all types !" # $ % &'()* " +, - +++./ . . . 6 Proportion of conflict classified as 'ethnic' 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Trends in ethnic conflict, 1945-2004 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 Incidence Magnitude 7 Approaches to understanding causes of conflict: big debate • Culture or economy? • Culture popular explanation. Age-old ethnic hatreds – Huntington, Kaplan. • But clear weaknesses: – Most ethnic groups collaborate: Fearon and Laitin -- former USSR, 4.5% ethnic conflict of potential; Africa , 1960-79, less than 0.01% – Ethnicity ‘constructed’ • ‘pre-colonial Africa …. far from there being a single ‘tribal’ identity, most Africans moved in and out of multiple identities, defining themselves at one moment as subject to this chief, at another moment as a member of that cult, at another moment as part of this clan’ (Ranger, 1983). 8 Economy and culture • Yet economic explanations (individualistic) deny role of ethnicity altogether. • Horizontal inequalities (HIs) brings ethnicity and socio-economic motives together. 9 Horizontal Inequality = inequality between groups • What groups? – groups with meaning to members, viewed by people themselves, or others as important aspect of identity. • Examples of salient identities: – Ethnic/’tribe’: African – Religious: most regions – notable N.Ireland; Middle East; Indonesia; Nigeria – Race – e.g. South Africa; Malaysia; Fiji – Regional (overlaps with other identities) – E.Timor; Eritrea, Bangladesh. – Caste (S.Asia) 10 HIs are Multidimensional • Dimensions - those that matter to members – affect well-being, sense of injustice, actions. • Salient dimensions vary according to nature of society/economy, and position (leaders/followers). • Important dimensions: – Politics (political participation, power, at all levels). – Economic resources and outcomes (access to assets, employment, incomes). – Social, including services (health/education/water..; and social networks). – Cultural recognition. Treatment of religion/customs etc. 11 Important question: what determines group boundaries? • Identities ‘constructed not primordial. • But not plucked from air – constrained by history, language etc. Shared markers (language, behaviour, rituals, religious practices). • Still ‘boundaries’ can be somewhat arbitrary. – Multiple identities. – Fluid. Mestizo in Latin America. ‘Indigenous, ‘cholo’. – Salient groups can change over time. (Moslems in Sri Lanka; Iwerri in Biafra). • Our surveys indicate multiple identities; and religion more important than ethnicity, West Africa. Yet ethnicity important for political mobilisation for voting and for violent conflict. 12 Fighting groups • Despite ‘constructed’ nature, ethnic differences real to participants. • The ‘very effectiveness [of ethnicity] as a means of advancing group interests depends upon its being seen as “primordial” by those who make claims in its name’ [Turton]. • Real enough to fight and die for. 13 HIs as mobilising agent • HIs combine identity and grievance (which together bind group) • Ethnic or religious boundaries are a powerful source of mobilisation in general, but • Especially where there are blatant HIs. • Motives of leaders of groups (orchestrators) may be lack of political power (political HIs). Leaders help construct/accentuate group boundaries: i.e. ‘ethnic entrepreneurs’. • Followers mind about political exclusion but more about economic, social and cultural inequalities. 14 HIs and Political instability: many examples Genocide: – Rwanda; – Pre-war German. Violent conflict: – – – – – Kosova; Sri Lanka; Nepal Indonesia (Aceh; East Timor). Sudan Also riots: – US cities in 1970s – Sporadic, cities in UK – City riots in India. • Also applies internationally : Moslem/Western divide. 15 Research into Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: some findings • Research mainly by Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity Research (CRISE) programme (2003-9), • Objective: to study multiethnic societies, investigating why some experience political instability and violent conflict, often labelled as ‘ethnic’, while others manage to solve disputes relatively peacefully. • Major hypothesis: That existence of high Horizontal Inequalities makes conflict more likely, where Horizontal Inequalities are inequalities among culturally perceived groups. 16 Programme coverage • Three region/eight countries; plus some global analysis. • West Africa: – Ghana/Cote d’Ivoire/Nigeria • SEAsia – Indonesia/Malaysia (and a little elsewhere). • Latin America – Bolivia/Guatemala/Peru. 17 HIs large in our countries • Bolivia: IMR of indigenous population 50 per cent higher than nonindigenous • Peru: the proportion of indigenous with secondary schooling 1/5 that of whites • Guatemala: 20% of indigenous population in extreme poverty in 2000; 5% nonindigenous. • Nigeria: maternal mortality rates in northeast are 9 times in southwest. • Côte d’Ivoire: the literacy rate for Northern Mande is just 23 per cent, half the rate among the Akan • Ghana: Northern Region child mortality rate is nearly 2.5 times Ghana as a whole • Malaysia: despite considerable improvement, Chinese incomes on average, over 1.6 times Malays. • Indonesia: per capita income E. Kalimantan 3 times Aceh; poverty in Aceh one and half times poverty rate in 18 E.Kalimantan SOME FINDINGS 1. Probability of conflict rises as socio-economic HIs increase: - Econometric cross-country evidence by Østby; Gurr; Barrows - Within country evidence, Mancini; Gates and Murshed. Using a variety of group definitions; and HI definitions. - Separatist violence (Brown) - Association of conflict with perceptions of group injustice N.B.Probability not certainty. Therefore need to explore WHEN and WHY 19 2. Conflict more likely where political and socio-economic HIs are consistent. • political HIs motivate leaders; socio-economic followers • examples: Cote d’Ivoire, versus Malaysia and Nigeria. Warri versus Calibar. • Some econometric evidence : Østby (political/economic interaction); Cederman (political). 20 3. Inclusive government tends to prevent conflict. - Econometric evidence shows that PR and federalism tend to reduce conflict probability. - Contrast Bolivia and Peru and Guatemala; Ghana and Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire. 21 4. Citizenship often important source of exclusion. - citizenship confers political, economic and social rights. - can be LOCAL as well as national: Indonesia, Ghana and Nigeria, Indigenes versus settlers. Source of general exclusion. Exclusion most often occurs when migrants refused citizenship (sometimes after generations) (Cote d’Ivoire) 22 5. Cultural status inequalities important • Where sharp they bind people together and help mobilise people • Represent powerful grievance in themselves • Can be a major source of other inequalities (e.g. language restrictions). • Events often act as a trigger – Orange Marches; destruction of mosque. 23 6. Perceptions important as much as ‘observed’ inequalities. - E.g. in Nigeria and Ghana, don’t perceive big differences in access to education, but do perceive differences in access to govt. jobs and contracts. - In Nigeria, with broadly same HIs as Ghana, people generally perceive themselves as more ethnic and less national. And perceive sharper inequalities 24 7. Natural resources can be important source of HI, creating: - regional inequalities in incomes - regional resentments about redistribution - within region inequalities - examples: Indonesia; Nigeria. One mechanism linking NR to conflict – others include finance, and greed. 25 8. Nature of state hugely important influencing whether HIs lead to conflict. - state accommodating in Ghana conflicts; less so in rest of West Africa. - state actions in Aceh, Indonesia, and Guatemala fueled and prolonged conflict. - accommodating state in Sabah, Malaysia prevented violent separatism in contrast to Thailand, Philippines, East Timor. 26 9. Many HIs very persistent. • Persistent inequalities in Ghana (NorthSouth); US black-white; indigenous people, Latin America… • Sometimes last centuries. • Wellbeing impact worse because of this. 27 THE PERSISTENCE OF HIS North South inequalities in Ghana over 60 years Infant mortality Gold Coast, 1931 Ghana, 1993 Northern Territories 1.26 1.20, 1.73, 1.29 National average 1.00 1.00 28 Policy conclusions • When HIs are significant they make conflict more likely. • Policy needs to address them, in all economies with marked inequalities, not only those coming out of conflict. • Important for general wellbeing and poverty reduction as well as political stability • NOT included mostly in economic or political policies. 29 International policies pay less attention to HIs than national policies in some countries • HIs mostly neglected, in international policy: – – – – Aid, often worsens HIs (e.g. Burundi). And structural adjustment policies Ignored in most PRSPs Also in much political conditionality – towards elections and multiparty democracy – But (implicitly) partially included in ’Human rights approach’; and Social exclusion approach. • More often included in national policies. 30 Three types of policy • Direct policies– targeted. Can be effective. But can lead to opposition and entrench ethnicity. May need to be time limited. • Indirect policies – may be less effective, but also arouse less hostility. • Towards greater integration – very long term; but complementary to other policies. 31 Political Socioeconomic Cultural status Direct HI-reducing Policy approach Indirect HI-reducing Group quotas; seat reservations; consociational constitution; ‘list’ PR Voting system; human rights legislation and enforcement National party stipulations Quotas for employment or education; special investment or credit programmes for particular groups Anti-discrimination legislation; progressive taxation; regional development programmes; universal education/health etc Support for crossgroup economic activities; schools multicultural schools Integrationist Civic citizenship Minority language education; recognition/education; Freedom of religious promotion of symbolic recognition in observance; national identity; public holidays, at state no state religion multicultural civic functions institutions32 Policies towards political HIs • Critical importance; reduce leadership motives; and contribute to correcting socio-economic and cultural inequalities • Structures needed to ensure that each group participates in political decision-making and power. Not Westminster majoritarian political system plus winner takes all. • Power sharing is NOT natural consequence of the way many understand democracy. • NB Participation important at many levels (central, regional, local) and in different types of decision (defence, economic, social) and in different activities (army, police, civil service). 33 Policies towards political HIs • Indirect: – – – – – Federal or unitary (and design) Extent and nature of decentralisation Voting system – majoritarian; PR; alternative vote. Voting system within assemblies. Constitutional guarantee of rights and freedoms • Direct. – Reserved seats. – Job allocation (and numbers). Three Presidents in BosniaHerzogovinia;all levels of government – Political parties: • Restrictions on parties – Citizenship rights. Who is a citizen? 34 Policies towards socio-economic HIs • Indirect – Legal rights; anti-discrimination – Progressive taxes and expenditure – Redesign of incentives (inc. macro policies) according to ethnic specialisation. – Comprehensive services (health, education etc. But also an issue of quality) • Direct – Quotas and targets towards education; asset ownership; employment; subsidies; government procurement. 35 Some direct socio-economic policies • Assets – Land (Malaysia; Zimbabwe; Fiji; Namibia) – Financial capital (Malaysia; S.Africa) – Terms of privatisation – often unequalising – Credit (Fiji; Malaysia) – Education (Malaysia; Sri Lanka). – Skills and training (Brazil, New Zealand) – Public sector infrastructure (S.Africa). – Housing (N.Ireland). – Social capital? [neighbourhoods; clubs] • Incomes – Employment policies; • Public sector (Malaysia; Sri Lanka) • Private sector (S.Africa) 36 Costs of direct policies? • Do they encourage inefficiency? No evidence for this. • Do they worsen within-group inequality? (e.g. S.Africa). Depends on the policies. Important that policies are directed at all income groups, especially poorer ones. • Do they tend to increase corruption? Depends on nature of policies and culture of society. • Do they entrench difference and worsen group relations? Some tendency. 37 Integrationist policies • • • • Education Media National symbols But: – Can threaten cultural identities (France) – May disguise inequalities (Peru) 38 Three cases of effective policies 1. Malaysia: post-riots, reduction in socioeconomic HIs, with direct and indirect policies. 2. Nepal: post-conflict policies for correction of political and socio-economic inequalities; policies not fully implemented. Area and group targeting. 3. N.Ireland: pre-peace reduction in HIs (direct and indirect) policies – mostly 39 indirect. 1. Malaysia: reducing economic/social HIs. • 1971 New Economic Policy (NEP) following ethnic riots, 1969. • Aim to secure national unity: 1. ‘to reduce and eventually eradicate poverty’; 2. to accelerate restructuring Malaysian society: ‘so as to reduce and eventually eliminate the identification of race with economic function’ (Second Malaysian Plan 1971-1975) 40 Malaysia policies – a variety of anti-poverty policies (rural development; social services). – restructuring: oexpand Bumiputera share of capital ownership to 30%. o95% of new lands to be settled on Malays; oeducational quotas in public institutions laid down, in line with population shares; ocredit policies favoured Malays, with credit allocations and more favourable interest rates. 41 Figure One: Malaysia mean incomes relative to national average Ratio to national average 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 Bumiputera 0.8 Chinese 0.6 India 0.4 0.2 0 1970 1979 1990 1999 2004 Year 42 The Malaysian approach • Based on national consensus. Much accomplished. • Important contribution to political stability especially in first decade. • Accompanied by rapid growth and poverty reduction. • But has national consensus been maintained? • Some left out? • A case for a shift to indirect approach? 43 2. Nepal • Following end of conflict, academic and political analysis recognised that HIs were important source of conflict. • E,g, DFID Report: “Group inequality based on caste, gender, ethnicity and geography has been a critical factor in Nepal’s conflict’ • Need to reduce HIs, recognised in Peace Settlement and political settlement incorporated members of all groups in parliament. 44 Government and donors decided to incorporate HIs in socio-economic policies • Govt introduced employment programme with 100 days guaranteed employment in 5 districts severely impacted by conflict. Extended to 24 mountainous districts by World Bank. • Schemes for community infrastructure and income generation targeted by ethnicity, caste and poverty. • Other schemes by other donors. • Not yet fully evaluated but implementation may be a problem. 45 3. N.Ireland: economic changes underlying political ones • HIs large, persistent and consistent over all dimensions over a long time period • ‘By the end of the nineteenth century Protestants controlled the vast bulk of the economic resources of east Ulster - the best of its land, its industrial and financial capital, commercial and business networks, industrial skills’ (Ruane and Todd 1996) • No narrowing of gap from 1901 to 1970s -- Catholics disadvantaged at every level. • New policies to reduce gaps from late 1970s: Fair Employment Acts, 1976; 1989; housing policy. Police Acts 1998,2000, 2003: 50% recruitment aim. 46 N ew pr ap po in t m hi en ts > s lic e om du c po ro er e in H H jo bs in c ag 3 gh m an ith d w an se s of H ou % H ig h Ratio of Catholic to Protestant Horizontal Inequalities in N.Ireland 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 changes from 1970s to 1990s 47 N. Ireland: intervention on HIs and peace Good Fri agreement 48 But too little effort to integrate communities • Malaysia least integrated of all CRISE countries according to surveys. • N.Ireland: surveys show poor relations 49 Finally, international dimension 1. International dimensions to the issue: economic/social/political/cultural – across Islam/West divide. 2. Needs to be tackled at multidimensional/multisite levels. 1. Within west in political and economic terms. 2. Between countries, in political and economic terms. 3. And within developing countries. 50 Summary of conclusions on HIs • Where HIs are large, important to address them. • Range of policies available, economic and political --can be effective without sacrifice of efficiency. • Mostly have had peace-promoting political consequences, but political caution needed. • Policies needed in ANY society with sharp divisions, not only those with recent conflict. • And for international inequalities. • Policies NOT part of many international and often national policy agendas, including economic and political reform, or aid. • NB. Other policies also needed, of course. 51 52