As Israel’s ground operations in Gaza expand, all eyes are on the Middle East for possible signs of escalation from outside groups who want to see Israel fail in its mission to destroy Hamas.
One group in particular – Hezbollah – has already clashed with Israel since Hamas’ Oct. 7 invasion of the country. The Lebanese military group, which the U.S. has designated a terrorist organization, said in a statement on Thursday that it launched 19 simultaneous strikes on Israeli army positions using guided missiles, artillery and other weapons. The move comes a few days after Hezbollah claimed it used a surface-to-air missile against an Israeli drone over southern Lebanon for the first time.
War in Israel and Gaza
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday was expected to deliver his first speech since the war began, and his message could greatly shape the next stages of the conflict.
Analysts say that the Iran-backed group appears restrained in its efforts to get involved so far, signaling it potentially does not want to see the war expand.
“All of Lebanon, including Hezbollah – we don’t want a war,” Lebanon’s foreign minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, who is in regular contact with Hezbollah, told The New York Times. “There is Western pressure on the Lebanese government to apply pressure on Hezbollah not to go to war. We have dialogued with Hezbollah and my impression is that they won’t start a war. But will Israel start a war? We need equal pressure on them, too.”
Still, Hezbollah is showing public – though, mostly symbolic to date – support of Hamas.
Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem said last month that the group would not be influenced by requests for it to stay out of the war.
"The question being asked, which everyone is waiting for, is: what Hezbollah will do and what will its contribution be?" Qassem said. "We will contribute to the confrontation within our plan ... when the time comes for any action, we will carry it out."
War in Israel and Gaza
What Is Hezbollah? How Does it Differ from Hamas?
Hezbollah was founded in Lebanon in 1982 during the 15-year Lebanese civil war. Since then, it has grown to a heavily armed force with political influence over Lebanon. Hezbollah has ministers in the Lebanon government and lawmakers in parliament.
Hamas similarly operates as a political party. It was founded in 1987 in Gaza as a spin-off of the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is also considered a terrorist organization by the U.S.
Both Hezbollah and Hamas are supported by Iran, but Hezbollah’s military capabilities go further than those of Hamas. Iran has given Hezbollah both weapons and money. The group claims it has weapons that can hit all parts of Israel.
“Hezbollah is far more formidable than Hamas, whose current operations are already a nightmare for Israel,” Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an analysis.
“Hamas is confined to a narrow strip of land in Gaza, and its armed forces have had little success against Israel – which is why, in the past, Hamas largely confined itself to missile and rocket attacks and using suicide bombs and other forms of terrorism,” he added. “Hezbollah, by contrast, controls parts of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and much of Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley region.”
But ties between the two groups run deep as they both ultimately share the goal of eliminating Israel.
How Would Hezbollah’s Entry Complicate the War?
While Hezbollah’s exact military capabilities aren’t known, the group’s entry into the war would ensure more destruction in Israel. It could also prompt the U.S. to further help Israel.
Israel’s resources would be put to the test if it needed to respond in a big way on its northern border, given that a large part of its military is preoccupied in Gaza.
Hamas leaders are surely putting pressure on Hezbollah to get more involved behind closed doors.
“When such a heinous crime is perpetrated against Gaza, greater things are certainly needed,” Khaled Meshaal, a previous political leader of Hamas, said in a recent interview. “But we should not single out Lebanon and Hezbollah.”
The pressure paired with any possible escalations in Gaza or Lebanon could see circumstances shift. But Hezbollah would undoubtedly be taking on more risk by joining the war.
“Hezbollah is a highly skilled militant group, and it has long sought to support the Palestinian cause,” Byman said. “Yet fully joining the conflict and opening up a second front in the war against Israel would be a huge risk for Hezbollah. It may simply prefer to watch the Palestinians fight and die while launching limited, symbolic attacks and cheering them on from the sidelines.”
Additionally, the move would not be popular in Lebanon, where the group is becoming increasingly unpopular.
“Lebanon has many problems today, with its economy in free fall,” Byman said. “Unemployment is high, and corruption is rampant. The country’s political system is broken, and there are often huge delays in forming a government, which when formed fails to accomplish anything. A war with Israel would devastate the country further: Israeli leaders today are in no mood for forgiveness or subtlety when it comes to dealing with threats from groups like Hezbollah.”
Ultimately, Hezbollah’s decisions when it comes to Israel and Hamas aren’t just in its own interests. The group is the most powerful Iran-backed militant group in the Middle East, so its considerations go further than the Lebanon border.
