Let's face it: almost everything about Zach Ertz ahead of the 2023 NFL season screams "fantasy risk."
Nearly any manager with an above-average fantasy football IQ knows that. But is it possible that the collective knowledge of Ertz's many risks makes him a potential high-reward sleeper? That's the question we will explore today, ultimately deciding whether the Cardinals tight end is a complete fade or a late boom-or-bust target.
The negatives are almost too numerous to count, meaning the chips are stacked against Ertz having a successful season. He's turning 33 years old in two months, and coming off a major knee injury in November 2022 — a torn MCL and partial tear of his ACL which required season-ending surgery. And even if he starts the regular season in Week 1 — which he's somewhat-miraculously on track to do — he will likely be without Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray for 3-5 weeks due to his own torn ACL rehab.
MORE: Should you draft Cardinals QB Kyler Murray?
However, it's important to also look at the positives. Ertz is a three-time Pro Bowler who, before the Week 10 injury last season, was on pace to put up his best numbers since his last Pro Bowl campaign (2019). He caught over 68 percent of his targets and converted first downs on 24 of his 47 catches. He scored four TDs in his nine games, which would have put him close to the pace needed to match his career-best of eight scores. And for the third year in a row, he suffered zero fumbles.
The flip-side of that coin: Ertz also played fewer than 11 whole games for the second time in three years, and became a "very high risk" on DraftSharks' injury predictor guide. This guy's injury history from 2015 through 2022 is about as long as Lindsay Lohan's rap sheet from 2007 through 2012. So, how do we approach this literal boom-or-bust player at the ever-shallow tight end position?
Below, we'll break down Ertz's 2023 fantasy outlook, and decide whether he's a smart draft pick at his ADP in fantasy football leagues.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Zach Ertz injury update: How long will Cardinals' TE be out?
Ertz revealed in early December 2022 that he underwent surgery for his Week 10 MCL injury against the Rams, and that while the surgeons were operating they also discovered a slight tear of his ACL that they fixed while they were in there. The thought at the turn of the calendar was that we wouldn't see the 32-year-old anywhere near the beginning of the 2023 season — but amazingly, in early August he was cleared for full activity by Arizona coach Jonathan Gannon.
That's great news, but it's important to note that Ertz's fantasy success also relies on the health of his QB, and Kyler Murray is nowhere near ready to start the 2023 season. Ertz also has a 71 percent chance of injury in the upcoming campaign, according to DraftSharks, who also note that tight ends in their age-33 year produce at 70 percent of their peak (if it's any consolation, Zach, I'm seven years into marriage and 50 pounds heavier than I was on my wedding day).
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Zach Ertz's 2023 fantasy ranking and ADP
Entering the season, SN Fantasy has Ertz ranked as the No. 14 TE in PPR formats and standard leagues. Despite the myriad question marks and injury risks — both with him and his starting QB — we simply can't fathom drafting 15 tight ends ahead of the three-time Pro Bowler.
The allure behind Ertz — especially with an ADP of 235 according to FantasyPros — is that he sat third among TEs in PPR points and fourth in non-PPR through Week 9 last season. He also commanded a nearly 20 percent target share, racking up over nine targets per game throughout the healthy part of his campaign. When Murray returns — hopefully by Week 4 — Ertz could easily launch right back into elite TE1 status.
In PPR formats, other TEs coming off the board around the same time as Ertz include the Patriots' Mike Gesicki (TE25) and Hunter Henry (TE28), the Bills' Dawson Knox (TE26), and the Panthers' Hayden Hurts (TE29).
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Zach Ertz's fantasy outlook 2023
The per-game production we have seen out of Ertz throughout his career makes him far closer to a top-150 value than a guy who should be drafted on average at 235. Especially at a position with such production gaps, the potential boom factor seems well worth the risks when it comes to this three-time Pro Bowl tight end.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
The Cardinals won't be good this season — we all know that. But we don't need a playoff team around Ertz for the tight end himself to mount a successful fantasy season. If he continues to yield high target rates around 7-9 per game (or a 17-20% target share), he can easily put up another strong statistical season.
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
Age, injury risk, and volatility at QB are obviously the biggest concerns Ertz owners should consider. But honestly, if you're landing the tight end in the 150-230 range, you're not expecting an All-Pro season — you're happily surprised by a fringe Pro Bowl season, or even 14 weeks of TE1 production. And with Murray expected back sometime around Week 4 or 5, the QB-TE rapport they have enjoyed over three seasons in Arizona makes Ertz a higher potential reward thank risk at his ADP.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
In the later stages of drafts, especially when talking about positional scarcity like we see at tight end, you should be thinking about high-ceiling pass-catchers who could turn into league-winners. Ertz, just based on his skill set and track record of TE1 success, is a massive buy-low to start the 2023 season. There will obviously be rough weeks — but if he can stay healthy and play at least 14 games, the good should outweigh the bad by the end of the fantasy playoffs.