About this research
A robust research methodology encompassing a global survey, executive interviews and economic modelling
Trade in Transition, a research programme led by Economist Impact and supported by DP World, is dedicated to understanding private-sector sentiment and untangling key trends in global trade and supply chains. It aims to enable businesses to navigate the complexities of the global economy, make informed decisions, and adapt their strategies to the ever-evolving economic landscape.
In this fourth edition of the programme, we investigate 'new globalisation': a new era in global trade and supply chains, defined by heightened geopolitical risk, climate change urgencies, and technological advancements. These forces are reconfiguring the global trading system and supply-chain organisation, shifting the focus from efficiency gains to strategic resilience and adaptability.
Our research is based on a global survey of 3,500 senior executives, designed to capture their trade and supply chain practices, as well as their sentiments for the year ahead. The survey targets leaders across a diverse range of industries and from all global regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and South America).
Alongside our survey, we conducted quantitative trade analysis that leverages the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) to model three hypothetical scenarios for the global economy under heightened geopolitical risk. In particular, we consider the effects of 'geo-economic fragmentation', exploring potential outcomes in a global economy divided into hypothetical trading blocs: ‘Western’, ‘Neutral’, and ‘Eastern’ (see appendix I and II for more). The scenarios we model hypothesise the impact of increased tariffs, trade barriers in high-tech goods, and the ramifications of a complete trade ‘decoupling’ between major geopolitical blocs.
The findings from our survey and the results from our quantitative trade analysis were supplemented by an interview programme with trade experts and senior executives from various regions and industries. We would like to thank the following experts for their time and insights:
- Leila Afas, director, global public policy, Toyota
- Allen Asiimwe, chief of programmes, TradeMark Africa
- Bertrand Conqueret, chief procurement officer, Henkel
- Dmitry Grozoubinski, founder, ExplainTrade and executive director, Geneva Trade Platform
- Stephen Lewis, trading and risk management, Redshaw Advisors
- Pamela Mar, managing director of the Digital Standards Initiative, the International Chamber of Commerce
- Anderson Martins, head of supply chain, Nestle Philippines
- Alan McKinnon, professor of logistics, Kuehne Logistics University
- Mauricio Mesquita, principle economic adviser, Inter-America Development Bank
- Lucas Netto, head of supply chain, Magotteaux
- Suleiman Pallak, general manager sales & commercial operations, General Motors Africa & Middle East
- William Reinsch, Scholl Chair in International Business, Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Yuri Unno, director, trade and supply chain, Toyota
The report was produced by a team of researchers at Economist Impact, including:
About DP World
A leading provider of smart logistics solutions
We help trade flow across the globe. Our global network spans across 295 business units in 78 countries, made up of logistics terminals, marine services, ports and economic zones – covering every link of the integrated supply chain.
We think ahead, anticipate change and deploy industry-leading technology to create innovative trade solutions while ensuring a positive impact on economies, societies and our planet.