“These kinds of things don’t happen all of the time. We’ve got a chance to take the majority back, I think we will. President Trump could very well be our president, so I think it’s a unique time to get it right,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.).

During the last big leadership transition in the Senate, Chuck Schumer clinched the Democratic leader’s job within hours of Harry Reid announcing his retirement. The race for GOP leader is playing out entirely differently; there could be more candidates while, unlike Reid, McConnell is staying neutral. And there are a ton more variables to consider.

Trump’s performance in November could weigh heavily on whether GOP senators are looking for someone who can lead the fractious party alongside the presumptive Republican nominee or, alternatively, go toe-to-toe with President Joe Biden for four more years. Plus, Trump’s victory would boost the prospects for a third candidate in the race.

The former president wants National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) to run for leader, but Daines has to focus on taking back the Senate before he can launch a campaign. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is making noise about a run, too, but he has a reelection bid to get through first.

Thune and Cornyn both have huge head starts in the race for leader, which will be conducted by a secret ballot after the November election. But a big GOP wave would mean lots of new voters in the leadership race — potentially Daines acolytes thanks to his NRSC work, whether or not Trump wins — and allegiances could shift after Election Day.

“I can see a scenario where there are members that will wait for that potential eventuality,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.).

With the two most natural heirs to McConnell already battling, it’s not inconceivable that one could lock up 30 or so votes in the coming weeks and end the race early. Leadership hopefuls are already contacting Senate candidates, hoping to win their votes even before the general election, according to a person familiar with the race’s internal machinations.

But there’s a significant conservative faction that wants to take its time and work through proposed changes to the ethos of the Senate GOP before committing to candidates. Senators will meet to discuss that idea later this month.

And the longer Republicans take, the more external factors could upend the dynamics. In an interview, Thune said he feels good about where he stands, as he does everything he can to work for votes, but he conceded that “there are things you can’t control.”

“It’s going to be kind of a bumpy election season. Anything can go,” said Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, the No. 4 GOP leader.

Kari Lake, the party’s likely candidate in the Arizona Senate race, has been visiting with GOP leaders since McConnell announced his exit last week. But she said it would be premature for her to wade into the succession race — a high-profile illustration of the trickiness surrounding the leadership race eight months out.

There’s already been a flurry of political moves in just a week. Trump vanquished Nikki Haley in the GOP primary, winning the endorsements of McConnell and Ernst in the process. Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), known as one of the “three Johns” awaiting the chance to become leader, decided to run for whip instead rather than take on Cornyn and Thune (GOP senators can only run for one leadership spot at a time).

That leaves a potential lane for a more Trump-y leadership candidate, be it Daines, Scott or someone else. Both Cornyn and Thune have endorsed Trump’s 2024 campaign, but have broken with him at times. Neither supported his efforts to challenge the 2020 election, with Thune declaring those attempts would go down like a “shot dog.”

In addition, both have expressed ambivalence in the past about Trump’s ability to win a general election.

They are past that now, but encouraging Daines to run for leader last week and prodding Scott to take on McConnell in 2022 show that the former president is eager to put his thumb on the scale.

“There is value in having a close relationship with the leader and a close relationship with the president. It’d be best if you could do both,” Cramer argued. “Trump’s a pragmatic guy. And he wants to be successful and he doesn’t have to love whoever the leader is to work with them.”

Of course, there’s some sensitivity among senators about the idea that Trump could choose their leader. Senators have a healthy sense of ego and chafe at the idea that Trump would be the determining factor. A secret ballot election allows Republicans to vote as they wish without a significant risk of blowback — as long as they keep those votes private.

And if Trump fails to defeat Biden, well, it’s safe to say his sway over the race will take a significant hit.

“Senators are going to look for their own qualities about how the Senate is run. And who they want to represent them in negotiations with the White House — regardless of who is in the White House,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.).

“I haven’t heard anybody say that they would vote differently depending on whether Trump wanted to work with someone or not.”

Ursula Perano contributed to this report.