Scenarios: SRH through to IPL 2024 playoffs after washout

The washout on Thursday (May 16) in Hyderabad has confirmed SRH as the third team to make it to the IPL 2024 playoffs, after KKR and RR. It has also meant DC's campaign is now officially over leaving RCB and CSK to fight it out for the last spot.

What's the playoffs equation riding on RCB-CSK encounter?

A CSK win should be enough for the defending champions to qualify but for RCB it is slightly more complicated. If RCB bat first and score 200, they should beat CSK by 18 runs or more or chase down the target of 201 with 11 balls or more to spare (if RCB hit a six from 200 and get to 206 they can complete the chase up to eight balls to spare). There is rain forecast for Bengaluru for Saturday and the equation remains the same which could prove more hindrance for RCB than CSK. Say, it becomes a five-over shootout and CSK set a target of 75, RCB would need to chase it down in 3.1 overs or if they bat first. And, if they score 75, RCB would require to restrict CSK to 57 or below in five overs to stay ahead on NRR.

Who will join KKR in Qualifier 1?

As for how things stand, all three of RR, SRH, and LSG have a realistic chance to finish second in the points table. RR have the most direct scenario in front of them: beat KKR on Sunday and play them again two days later in Ahmedabad. If RR lose on Sunday, they will need both CSK and SRH to drop their final game for a top-two finish.

If RR lose to KKR and stay on 16 points, a win against a depleted but spirited PBKS would ensure SRH's passage to Qualifier 1. In the event of KKR beating RR and SRH-PBKS getting washed out (and CSK not winning in Bengaluru), RR will progress to Q1 by virtue of more wins (eight) to SRH (seven wins and two no results). If SRH lose to PBKS, they cannot finish in the top-two.

The only way CSK can finish second is if they beat RCB, KKR beat RR and SRH do not win against PBKS. In the event of all three sides finishing on 16 points each, CSK will march to Q1 thanks to their superior NRR over RR and more number outright wins than SRH.

Do LSG stand a chance?

Mathematically yes, but for all practical purposes, their season has come to an end. They can at best finish on 14 points and will be eliminated if CSK beat RCB and get to 16 points. In case RCB gets the better of CSK and LSG beat MI, all three will end on 14 points each. For LSG to top the NRR, they will have to beat MI by around 310 runs batting first should RCB beat CSK by exactly 18 runs (the winning margin for LSG over MI would keep increasing depending on how much RCB's victory margin wither away from the 18-run mark). If LSG field first against MI, they will be eliminated right away.