Election could decide whether country sticks with liberal, pro-western line or begins to lean more towards Russia
Populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer party has garnered over 23% of the vote, far ahead of its rival Progressive Slovakia, according to early results.
With nearly 92% of precincts counted, Progressive Slovakia is at 15.84% and Hlas at 15.39.
Nevertheless, counting continues, including in Bratislava, where Progressive Slovakia is leading.
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It’s been a dramatic night, from exit polls first indicating that Progressive Slovakia would win to Smer ultimately garnering the most votes when results came in.
But now, the shape of Slovakia’s future government will depend on complex negotiations and the decision-making of smaller parties.
Meanwhile, governments across the continent are sure to keep a close eye on Bratislava’s foreign policy choices – especially when it comes to Ukraine.
Stay tuned for future coverage.
Populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer party is on course to win Slovakia’s election, garnering more support than its rival Progressive Slovakia in a dramatic knife-edge vote.
With over 98% of districts reporting, Smer is set to take 23.37% of the vote. Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia came second with 16.86%, followed closely by Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas with 15.03%.
The election’s outcome is likely to further fuel fears about Slovakia’s future foreign policy orientation. Fico has vowed to stop military aid to Ukraine, criticised sanctions targeting Russia and campaigned against LGBTQ+ rights. His rhetoric has raised concerns that Bratislava could join Viktor Orbán’s Hungary as a more Russia-friendly voice within the EU and NATO.
Exit polls initially indicated that Progressive Slovakia pulled ahead to first place, raising expectations in the country’s liberal camp. But as votes were counted throughout the night, those hopes were dashed.
Still, the shape of Slovakia’s next government remains unclear and much will depend on complex coalition-building with smaller parties, including Hlas and Igor Matovič’s OĽaNO.
Experts and politicians have described the country’s election campaign as highly polarised and marked by a deluge of online misinformation.
Results show that Progressive Slovakia did particularly well in Bratislava. But that was not enough to win a plurality nationally.
And here are the latest numbers, with nearly all districts reporting results.
Populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer party has garnered over 23% of the vote, far ahead of its rival Progressive Slovakia, according to early results.
With nearly 92% of precincts counted, Progressive Slovakia is at 15.84% and Hlas at 15.39.
Nevertheless, counting continues, including in Bratislava, where Progressive Slovakia is leading.
The latest from Bratislava region, where counting continues.
More data, with around 90% of precincts counted
Latest projections from Denník N
Waiting for more clarity
As counting continues, so does the uncertainty, with some experts now expecting Smer to garner more votes than Progressive Slovakia.
Latest national results, with nearly 68% of precincts counted.
Analysts say a Smer-led coalition now looking like a possibilty.
Current trends suggest a Smer-Hlas-SNS coalition a distinct possibility in #volby2023 🇸🇰 SNS now looking safe (an 80% certainty on current trends). Still plenty can change.
— Tim Haughton (@HaughtonTim) October 1, 2023
Progressive Slovakia shines in capital
With around 20% counted in the Bratislava region, the progressives have a solid lead in the area.
Here are the latest numbers.
“Smer’s lead with 40% of votes counted is so big that my guess is that they might finish on the 1st place,” Slovakia expert Milan Nič told the Guardian.
Central European progressives excited
It is “not everyday do we see an election where the margins are so tight, and the stakes are so extremely high,” said Katalin Cseh, a member of the European parliament from Hungary’s Momentum, an ally of Progressive Slovakia.
“I sincerely hope that the final results confirm the findings of the exit polls, and Slovakia chooses a European future over Russian propaganda,” she said.
“A stable, progressive, pro-European government is essential not only for the benefit of Slovak citizens, but also for the European Union as a whole,” Cseh said.
“I am convinced,” she added, “that Mr Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia will be an essential ally for continuing the green transition, sustaining support for Ukraine, and for fending off the rise of populism and democratic backsliding, a phenomenon unfortunately far too common in the EU these days.”
All eyes are now on the capital.
Why Bratislava may swing the overall election results (from Markiza exit poll, so usual pinch of salt recommendation applies) pic.twitter.com/xPeA0yYqtb
— Tim Haughton (@HaughtonTim) October 1, 2023
“We are anxiously waiting for more precincts to be counted,” tweeted Progressive Slovakia leader Michal Šimečka.
“Let’s keep our fingers crossed,” he said.
Napäto čakáme na sčítanie väčšieho počtu okrskov. Držme si palce. pic.twitter.com/WPPRzJqUbN
— Michal Šimečka (@MSimecka) September 30, 2023
Latest national results
With nearly 37% of precincts counted, Smer is formally in the lead. It remains unclear how much votes from Bratislava – where the vast majority of ballots have yet to be counted – will shift the balance.
