FX Hub – Standard Chartered HK

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FX Market Hub

Grasp the latest FX movements on-the-go
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13 May 2024

USD notched a positive week

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    How do you want to apply for Integrated Deposits Account?

    *Only applicable to new Standard Chartered banking customers who do not hold any current or savings account with us. For existing customers, please login to Online Banking or visit the branch for account opening.

    Download SC Mobile, save a trip to the branch

    SC Mobile app download - QR Code

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google play is a trademark of Google Inc.

    Click here to learn more about Mobile Account Opening.

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    Cheque book service, products/services/applications that require handwritten signature are not applicable to account opened via SC Mobile App.

13 May 2024

USD notched a positive week

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6 May 2024

USD fell on soft labour market data

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  • TRADE NOW TRADE NOW

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    How do you want to apply for Integrated Deposits Account?

    *Only applicable to new Standard Chartered banking customers who do not hold any current or savings account with us. For existing customers, please login to Online Banking or visit the branch for account opening.

    Download SC Mobile, save a trip to the branch

    SC Mobile app download - QR Code

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google play is a trademark of Google Inc.

    Click here to learn more about Mobile Account Opening.

    Not applicable to:

    Cheque book service, products/services/applications that require handwritten signature are not applicable to account opened via SC Mobile App.

6 May 2024

USD fell on soft labour market data

Latest FX News

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FX Weekly – 08 May 2024

AUD retreated after RBA rate decision

The RBA held interest rates steady at 4.35% for the 4th time. AUD/HKD fell to the 5.13 level amid partial profit-taking. Recent low was at 4.98 on 19th April., which is around 3% lower than the current level. AUD/USD broke below 0.66.

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FX Weekly – 26 Apr 2024

100 JPY fell below 5.0 HKD

JPY/HKD fell below 5.0 HKD after the BOJ meeting. JPY broke below 156 per dollar and hit the 34-year low again. The BOJ held rate steady and raised its CPI forecast for 2024 and 2025, while reiterated its monetary easing adjustment once prices rise.

FX at a glance

Key FX Highlights

  • We expect the USD to be largely flat over the next 3 and 12 months.
  • JPY and CNY have the most potential to deviate from this low volatility environment.
  • AUD and NZD likely to remain well-supported by relatively hawkish central banks.

For more details, you may download our latest Global Market Outlook.

   

 

USD

3m forecast: 102.8

12m forecast: 102.7

The bullish case:

+ Recession-linked safe-haven demand

+ US exceptionalism

The bearish case:

– Dovish pivot from the Fed

– Global growth rotation ex-US

– Correction of expensive valuation

GBP

3m forecast: 1.30 (GBP/USD)

12m forecast: 1.28 (GBP/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Hawkish BoE due to sticky inflation

The bearish case:

– Recession risks

– Consumption weakness

JPY

3m forecast: 153 (USD/JPY)

12m forecast: 142 (USD/JPY)

The bullish case:

+ Increase in JGB yields

+ Potential BoJ rate hikes

+ Safe haven

The bearish case:

– Japan’s low nominal yields

– Continuation of easy BoJ monetary policy

AUD

3m forecast: 0.68 (AUD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.69 (AUD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Terms of trade

+ China growth rebound

The bearish case:

– Capped commodity prices

– Risk-off sentiment

EUR

3m forecast: 1.10 (EUR/USD)

12m forecast: 1.10 (EUR/USD)

The bullish case:

+ ECB may push back rate cuts

+ Increasing real rates as EU inflation falls

The bearish case:

– Downside growth risk

– Banking sector concerns

– Energy dependency

NZD

3m forecast: 0.62 (NZD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.64 (NZD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Hawkish RBNZ

+ China dairy/tourism demand

The bearish case:

– Elevated CA deficit

– Housing risk

CAD

3m forecast: 1.35 (USD/CAD)

12m forecast: 1.35 (USD/CAD)

The bullish case:

+ Lower rate differentials

+ resilient oil prices

The bearish case:

– Vulnerable housing market

– Lower growth

CHF

3m forecast: 0.90 (USD/CHF)

12m forecast: 0.92 (USD/CHF)

The bullish case:

+ Sale of FX reserves

The bearish case:

– SNB policy pause

– Lower safe-haven demand

CNY

3m forecast: 7.22 (USD/CNY)

12m forecast: 7.25 (USD/CNY)

The bullish case:

+ China growth rebound

+ Capital inflows

The bearish case:

– Geopolitics

– Unfavourable rate differentials

Disclaimers

Important Note of Investment Products

Premium deposit, Equity Linked Investments and structured notes are structured products involving derivatives. Investment Fund is an investment product and some Investment Funds would involve derivatives. The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in that investment product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives.

Risk Disclosure Statement

  • Investment involves risks. The prices of investment products fluctuate, sometimes dramatically and the worst case may result in loss of your entire investment amount. Past performance is no guide to its future performance.
  • Investors should read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents and in particular the investment policies and the risk factors and latest financial results information carefully and are advised to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
  • Investors should consider their own investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and risk tolerance level.

Foreign Exchange:

  • Foreign exchange involves risks. Fluctuation in the exchange rate of a foreign currency may result in gains or significant losses in the event that the customer converts deposit from the foreign currency to another currency (including Hong Kong Dollar).

RMB Deposit Service:

  • Renminbi (“”RMB””) exchange rate, like any other currency, is affected by a wide range of factors and is subject to fluctuations. Such fluctuations may result in gains and losses in the event that the customer subsequently converts RMB to another currency (including Hong Kong dollars); and
  • RMB is currently not freely convertible and conversion of RMB through banks in Hong Kong is subject to restrictions specified by the Bank and regulatory requirements applicable from time to time. The actual conversion arrangement will depend on the restrictions prevailing at the relevant time.

Disclaimer and Important Notes of Insurance

  • This webpage is intended to be valid in Hong Kong only and shall not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy or provision of any insurance product outside Hong Kong. Prudential and Standard Chartered do not offer or sell any insurance product in any jurisdictions outside Hong Kong in which such offering or sale of the insurance product is illegal under the laws of such jurisdictions. This webpage does not constitute a contract of insurance or an offer, invitations or recommendation to any person to enter into any contract of insurance or any transaction described therein or any similar transaction.
  • The material and information contained on this webpage should be read in conjunction with the relevant product brochure and for the risk disclosure, please refer to the product brochure.

Notes

  • This webpage does not constitute any prediction of likely future price movements.
  • Investors should not make investment decisions based on this webpage alone.
  • This webpage has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any regulatory authority in Hong Kong.

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  • Exchange Now Exchange Now

    Trade now via SC Mobile App

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    Trade now via SC Mobile App

    For new and existing clients

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    How do you want to apply for Integrated Deposits Account?

    *Only applicable to new Standard Chartered banking customers who do not hold any current or savings account with us. For existing customers, please login to Online Banking or visit the branch for account opening.

    Download SC Mobile, save a trip to the branch

    SC Mobile app download - QR Code

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google play is a trademark of Google Inc.

    Click here to learn more about Mobile Account Opening.

    Not applicable to:

    Cheque book service, products/services/applications that require handwritten signature are not applicable to account opened via SC Mobile App.