This clash of Western Conference titans had to happen. There are too many connections between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves for it not to have. The teams have been eyeing each other all season, coaches spending idle hours scheming up counters.
Both teams are legitimate contenders. This is the toughest opponent Denver has encountered across its past two playoff runs. The road to the NBA's first repeat since 2018 will be much tougher than Denver's path last season -- which began, of course, against the No. 8-seeded Timberwolves.
Ten days after the Nuggets hired Tim Connelly as their top basketball decision-maker in 2013, they traded the No. 27 pick to the Utah Jazz -- who used it on Rudy Gobert. Connelly's first titanic move as the Wolves new president of basketball operations in 2022 was trading a haul to team Gobert with another star big in Karl-Anthony Towns. In Denver, Connelly had long toyed with the idea of pairing Nikola Jokic with a rim protector, sources said.
Calvin Booth, now Denver's general manager, played for the Wolves and worked in Minnesota's front-office before Connelly brought him to Denver. Chris Finch, the Wolves' head coach whose level of sideline participation is uncertain after he sustained a knee injury, was an assistant in Denver the season Jokic became a starter. Micah Nori, the Minnesota assistant who may patrol the sidelines if Finch can't, worked in Denver under current Nuggets head coach Michael Malone for several seasons.
Malone's staff includes two sons of former Wolves head coaches: Ryan Saunders and David Adelman. Saunders was also the Wolves' head coach for parts of three seasons.
If there is an agreed upon starting point for this era of Nuggets basketball, it is probably Dec. 15, 2016 -- known locally as "Jokmas," the day Malone anointed Jokic Denver's starting center. But the Nuggets' seriousness as potential contenders really crystallized on the last day of the following season in Minnesota -- when Denver lost a winner-take-all game for the No. 8 seed in overtime.
On the team's flight back to Denver, Jokic walked from row to row thanking every staff member -- and promising the team would improve.
"It is the kind of thing," Connelly told ESPN in 2020, "that makes your disappointment fade pretty quickly."
In last season's first round, Denver vaulted to a 3-0 lead over the untested Wolves -- who were without Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid due to injury. Towns was melting down again; he scored 21 points on 8-of-27 shooting combined in Games 1 and 2. He had more turnovers in those games -- nine -- than made field goals. Some teams would have let go of the rope.
But improbably, the rest of the series became a defining moment for the Wolves. They fought. Anthony Edwards proved again he was ready for the hottest spotlights. The Wolves found a scheme that seemed to bother Denver: slotting Towns onto Jokic and sliding Gobert onto Aaron Gordon, so that Gobert could rove. Towns finally settled into the playoffs.
They won Game 4 and pushed the Nuggets to the limit in Game 5 in Denver. You could see the realization dawning: We have something here. Imagine if we had Jaden and Naz? Upon winning the first championship in franchise history, several within the Nuggets whispered that Minnesota had been their toughest postseason test -- and wondered what that might portend going forward.
The Wolves are intact now -- huge, physical, dialed in on both ends. They obliterated the Phoenix Suns, overwhelming them on defense, passing and cutting and driving around them on offense with a new precision. The Nuggets trudged through a tense five-game win over the Los Angeles Lakers; Murray shot 40%, including 29% on 3s, and is nursing a calf injury.
The Nuggets' bench, younger now with Bruce Brown and Jeff Green gone, faltered some. Malone in Game 5 staggered Denver's two most important backups -- Christian Braun and Peyton Watson -- to preserve some acceptable threshold of 3-point shooting. That meant more of Murray and Reggie Jackson together, a smallish pairing that will appear even smaller next to the humongous Timberwolves.
On paper, these teams are even: No. 3 (Minnesota) and No. 4 (Denver) in point differential. The Wolves' top-ranked defense carries an average offense. The Nuggets are a surgical scoring machine despite taking the fewest 3s, and have cobbled a solid defense -- No. 9 overall -- with size and speed around Jokic and Murray.
The biggest question about Minnesota's viability as a contender was its collective decision-making on offense outside of Mike Conley. Its defense is unrelenting. It won't shut down the Nuggets, but dragging their efficiency back a few percentage points is a reasonable goal. Score enough and the Wolves have a path to victory.
The Gobert trade was a massive wager on Edwards developing as a playmaker while Gobert was still in his prime. It was a huge ask. Edwards is 22. He averaged 4.4 assists last season.
But Edwards sliced apart the Suns' undersized, flimsy defense by making the simple play over and over. When Phoenix sent two defenders at him, Edwards pinged it to the next open player. These were not spectacular passes. They implied trust in teammates to make the correct next play until someone ended up with an open shot. Sometimes that player was Edwards after the Wolves whipped the ball around the horn.
Towns slowed down, got control of his limbs, paused for a half-second to find the right plan of attack.
The Wolves need that steadiness against an experienced Denver defense that trends aggressive but will show different looks to confuse Edwards. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been Denver's primary defender on Edwards, though others will get chances: Watson, Braun, Gordon. If Edwards can physically overwhelm Caldwell-Pope -- driving through him, bullying him in the post -- the whole architecture of the series changes. He has shown glimpses of that in the past, but the Nuggets have mostly stuck with Caldwell-Pope.
The Nuggets' default against the Edwards-Gobert pick-and-roll will be having Jokic meet Edwards high up -- temporarily placing two defenders on the ball, and leaving the other three defending four opponents. Gobert will roll open behind Jokic. One Nugget will leave a shooter and block Gobert's path until Jokic recovers. Everyone else has to rotate in kind.
Alleys open. Minnesota has to blast through them before the Nuggets shut them off. It requires collective effort -- everyone in the chain making the right snap reads. One blip of hesitation and the system stalls. The Nuggets want to kill time and coax the ball to the least dangerous places -- so-so shooters, or role players forced to create against the clock. For Minnesota to win, those players will have to make a requisite number of tough shots:
Edwards has also been able to get around Jokic and dart into a 5-on-3 in the paint.
Gobert has to finish plays when Minnesota's ball handlers thread the ball directly to him. Anthony Davis hurt Denver when he slipped behind Jokic and overpowered smaller help defenders. The Wolves will set up some plays so that the help defender in Gobert's crosshairs is Murray or some other guard -- instead of a behemoth like Gordon or Michael Porter Jr. Gobert is not Davis in this regard, but he'll have to do damage.
The Nuggets sometimes digest when Murray is in help position, and improvise to send help from elsewhere -- even from the strong side.
Edwards has other options. He can hunt Murray by running pick-and-rolls with Minnesota's point guards, either drawing Murray on a switch or baiting the Nuggets into trapping him. He can run the two-man game with Towns, though the Nuggets have often switched that -- slotting Gordon onto Edwards and Caldwell-Pope on Towns, daring the Wolves to break their offense and post Towns up. The Wolves cannot afford Towns bulldozing and stumbling into the silly fouls that have plagued him in the postseason.
Edwards and Conley might go at Porter one-on-one too. Porter has improved, but he's still a little stiff against fast-twitch ball handlers.
Denver too will vary tactics. They will drop Jokic back in some circumstances -- against Conley pick-and-rolls, and Edwards actions on the wing. They might play this way more in the first three quarters -- saving the traps for crunch time so that Edwards can't catch a rhythm.
In that conservative style, the Nuggets can try defending the pick-and-roll 2-on-2, avoiding rotations and sticking to shooters. The downside is giving Edwards a runway at Jokic, who is not a leaper:
Gobert screens once, cuts to the paint, then jogs back out for a second screen. That rescreen is crucial. It forces Jokic to work -- to change direction again and again. It chips away at his energy. On the second pick, he sometimes lingers in the paint -- gifting Edwards that runway.
The Nuggets even in this dropback scheme pinch in to support Jokic. They do it in flashes, without overcommitting -- darting in and out of passing lanes, extending arms, blurring Edwards' vision and making him think certain avenues are closed off. Watch Caldwell-Pope stunt in just enough from the left wing to make Edwards pull up:
The Nuggets can also rejigger matchups, though that is dicey against Minnesota's best lineups. When Kyle Anderson is in, Denver can have Jokic guard him -- sliding Gordon and maybe Porter onto Minnesota's bigs.
Denver could try this against Minnesota's starters by stashing Jokic on McDaniels, but that would leave Porter guarding either Towns or Gobert. It's tempting to slide Gordon onto Edwards, but who defends Towns in that scenario?
The Wolves can tinker too. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Monte Morris rounded the roster out. Minnesota prefers playing two of the Towns/Gobert/Reid trio, but they are flexible enough to go with only one if foul trouble or some other variable nudges them there.
The Wolves get to the line a ton; Denver ranked 21st in opponent free throw rate. The Wolves are turnover-prone, but only three teams forced fewer turnovers than Denver. They have become a stout defensive rebounding team -- a must against Jokic's magnet hands. The Wolves have to win the free throw and possession battles -- and they can.
Their defense was built for this moment. McDaniels and Alexander-Walker are probably the West's best-suited duo to blanket Murray -- to at least make that midrange magic hard for him. The Gobert-on-Gordon gambit might be the best option any team has to limit Jokic's impact as scorer and passer.
The direct Jokic assignment then falls to Towns. He can't stop Jokic one-on-one. No one can. But Gobert is the rare help defender big enough to form a last line of defense and invade Jokic's pet passing lanes. He can slough away from Gordon to prevent entry passes when the Wolves front Jokic:
An ideal Jokic post-up for Minnesota unfolds like this:
Jokic can back Anderson into the basket stanchion, but Gobert looms as a shot-blocker. He's also threatening any pass to Gordon. Minnesota's other three defenders can stay close to Denver's shooters. The Wolves want Jokic's best available pass to be across the court to Caldwell-Pope in the corner -- airborne long enough for them to rotate in time.
Deploying Gobert this way allows Minnesota to avoid helping on Jokic post-ups from one pass away:
They'll still do that now and then, depending on personnel. When Minnesota springs that double, they will be ready with rotations behind it. But Jokic sees that a lot -- including against the Lakers -- and has dozens of counters.
Denver knows Gobert-on-Gordon is coming. It has spent all season preparing for it. It has cards it hasn't used -- not even against the Wolves. If Gobert is ignoring Gordon, the Nuggets can move Gordon around as an off-ball screener for their shooters -- knowing that if Gordon's screen hits, there will be no one on the other side to help. Edwards will often defend Porter, and if there is a weak spot in Edwards' defense it is his tendency to lose shooters. Expect Denver to test that.
The Nuggets can force Gobert to stick to Gordon by using Gordon in the pick-and-roll -- as a screener for Jokic and Murray, or even as the ball handler. Pull Gobert into the action and there is less resistance waiting at the rim:
We haven't seen much of Gordon as pick-and-roll orchestrator lately. The Nuggets might be saving it for now.
Overusing the Murray-Gordon two-man game shifts the offense away from Jokic. The Nuggets don't want that. But there are ways for Jokic to be a threat -- and maybe even end up with the ball -- on those possessions. They can set cross screens under the rim for Jokic during a Murray-Gordon pick-and-roll, so that he pops into post position as Murray turns the corner. They can have him set flare screens or curl around pindowns amid that same Murray-Gordon action -- as he does here screening for Porter:
The Nuggets can hand the ball to Jokic at the center of the foul line, where he has access to every pass.
The Nuggets should and will run copious Murray-Jokic pick-and-rolls, even with Gobert lurking on the back line. It is their best play. Murray will often first use a screen from Caldwell-Pope to get Conley switched onto him -- and McDaniels away. Murray has also had some success taking Conley to the block.
Towns has defended at a career-best level in these playoffs, but Murray can attack his feet and pry space for Jokic's floater -- the Nuggets fail-safe shot:
Jokic's floater-slash-runner might be the most important shot in basketball right now. It is in theory a shot defenses are supposed to concede; the Wolves by design allowed the second most midrange shots in the league.
Almost 40% of Jokic's attempts have been from floater range -- one of the largest shares among all players. He has hit a remarkable 62% on those shots for three straight seasons. It is not hyperbole to suggest that shot could swing this series -- and every Denver series.
Jokic will defend Gobert, which means Gobert will stick on Jokic after some Denver stops. That's when the Nuggets can spam the Murray-Jokic two-man game, and have Jokic pop out to the arc --- making Gobert cover more ground and navigate Jokic's pump-and-go drives:
Gobert will close out short to Jokic, test Jokic's willingness to launch 3s, even dare Jokic to beat the Wolves from deep. Jokic has hit 40.8% of his career postseason 3s, up from 35% in the regular season. A few extra makes could tilt the series, in part by forcing Minnesota's bigs to close out harder -- unlocking Jokic's drives.
The Nuggets have dabbled with playing Porter more at power forward against Minnesota -- alongside Jokic and three guards and wings who aren't Gordon. It juices Denver's shooting and removes the Gobert-on-Gordon tactic.
That is risky. Denver needs Gordon's defense, and everything else he brings. The bench guys who might steal some of his time are below-average 3-point shooters -- Watson and Braun. Green and Brown were sneaky important players in this matchup for this reason: toughness on defense, some track record of hitting open 3s.
Surviving the non-Jokic minutes is always a high-wire act. Denver needs to load those lineups with Murray and at least one other starter, and play Gordon as a small-ball center. (The Wolves will almost always have one of one Edwards and Towns on the floor to sustain their offense.)
When those reserve-heavy groups work, it's usually because they get out in transition. The Nuggets A-lineups can be dangerous there too; Jokic leading a 5-on-4 is the scariest sight in basketball. The Wolves have cleaned up their once-leaky transition defense. It still wobbles now and then. They cannot wobble in this matchup.
If Murray were 100%, Denver would be stronger favorites. The Wolves can win this. They are that good. But Denver has home court, experience and the world's best player. It should shoot better on 3s than it did in Round 1.
The pick: Nuggets in 7.