For first time in decade, public state colleges including Worcester State see enrollment increase

After a decade of declining enrollment, public higher education in Massachusetts finally saw the first increase in first-year undergraduate enrollment last fall, fueled by a nearly 8% increase in community college admissions.

However, at the University of Massachusetts and state university systems, the other two segments of public higher education, enrollments continued to decline, although at a slower rate, according to data from the Massachusetts Department of Higher Education.

The Department of Higher Education oversees 15 community colleges, nine state universities and five UMass campuses under three different categories within the larger system.

“Our administration is thrilled to hear that our efforts to expand access to higher education are showing results,” said Gov. Maura T. Healey.

However, Massachusetts, like many other developed regions, has witnessed declining birth rates for the past two decades, one of the reasons leading to fewer college-age students, according to Joshua Goodman, an associate professor of education and economics at Boston University.

Experts are grappling with the question of whether this is a long-term rebound or if economic changes since the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic have changed the importance of higher education. And they wonder if increasing government spending is a long-term solution.

In the decades leading up to the 1990s, Massachusetts had several independent public higher education institutions spread across the state. Former Gov. Michael Dukakis initiated a restructuring effort, culminating in the Saxon Report, which recommended dividing the system into three segments used today.

The restructuring resulted in UMass becoming a centralized system with a single board of trustees overseeing multiple research-based campuses, each led by a chancellor. State universities and community colleges retained more autonomy, with individual campuses having their own leadership and governance structures, according to Vincent Pedone, the executive director of the State Universities Council of Presidents.

UMass is authorized to confer undergraduate, graduate and professional degrees including doctoral degrees. State universities offer bachelor’s and master’s degrees, while community colleges focus on associate degrees and certificates.

“In state universities, our faculty have had scholarship on research, but it’s not a requirement, whereas it’s a requirement for UMass,” said Pedone. “We educate the Massachusetts workforce and most of our graduated students came from and stay here to raise their families.

“There’s a lot of competition for NIH grants, the National Institutes of Health, and we have several campuses competing in the same space, but the grant money is not infinite,” he said.

Collectively, UMass receives far more funding from the yearly governor’s budget, approximately 107% higher than the state university system.

“It doesn’t seem surprising to me,” said Colin Jones, the deputy policy director at the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center.

Jones said that UMass seeks two types of financial support: Increased funds to cover their employees’ salaries and infrastructural upgrades, such as new buildings and experimental equipment. UMass administrators prioritize infrastructure development and staff compensation to maintain attractive campuses and working conditions. 

According to a Department of Higher Education spokesperson, the funding for each institution is determined annually through the state’s budget process involving the governor and Legislature. The appropriations given directly to each school generally cover a percentage of faculty and staff wages. One of the elements influencing the appropriations is the shift in payroll costs anticipated because of collective bargaining agreements.

In addition, the financing formulae established by the Department of Higher Education are used to allocate extra money to the community college and state university divisions. Legislative language in the state budget line items determines what the Department of Higher Education gets and gives to each of the segments.

“I think it’s reasonable to invest different amounts of money to different systems because they have different focus areas, but I think trying to have a good balance among three is also important,” said Jones.

Nevertheless, higher education funding presents a complex landscape, as highlighted by the significant variance between the proposed allocations in Healey’s budget and subsequent reductions made by the House, Jones said. In response to such limitations, creative financial strategies are being considered to address the funding shortfall.

One potential approach involves leveraging the borrowing capacity of Massachusetts to issue bonds dedicated to long-term higher education capital projects. That approach can result in stretching funds, allowing investments in essential infrastructure, while alleviating pressure on the operating budget.

A recent report about higher education investments emphasized that there is a shortage of workers with college degrees due to declining birthrates, fewer high school graduates completing their degrees, an increase in retirements and families moving out of Massachusetts.

The decline in birthrates following the Great Recession in 2007 has led to a plateauing and potentially future decrease in the population of traditional college-age students, according to BU’s Goodman. The demographic trend is crucial because it directly affects the pool of potential new students, which can lead to decreased enrollment in higher education institutions over time.

Around 2010, the state university system started seeing signs of enrollment challenges, according to Pedone, and the number has been declining since 2014.

Massachusetts ranked 12th in the nation, with 84.1% of the residents who stayed in their birthplaces, among the share of first-year college students in the United States who enrolled in the state where they lived in fall 2016.

“Ninety-five percent of our students came from the commonwealth,” said Pedone. “If we are seeing a decline in our population. It only goes to reason that we could see a decline in our enrollment and that’s what is happening.

“According to the data, we will not see a stabilization of our population in Massachusetts until 2035,” he said.

Due to a smaller proportion of its student body hailing from Massachusetts, UMass appeared less affected by the state’s demographic changes. For instance, of the students registered at UMass Amherst in the fall of 2023, only 67.5% were initially from the state and 9.1% were international students, according to UMass’ first-year students factbook.

“It’s always going to impact us more significantly,” said Pedone.

Ryan Forsythe, vice president for enrollment management at Worcester State University, said state universities in Massachusetts have only seen very slight decreases in enrollment that can be attributed to demographic changes. The larger enrollment changes, however, occurred when COVID-19 struck.

“Very tiny variations prior to the pandemic can be attributed to demographic changes but certainly are nothing compared to what happened during 2021,” Forsythe said.

Over the last decade, the U.S. job market has progressively strengthened, except for significant disruption during the pandemic, according to Goodman. Even after the pandemic, the job market has recovered to one of its strongest points historically, characterized by record-low unemployment rates.

According to a study on government recovery measures conducted by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, recovery efforts were further bolstered by relief and recovery laws passed in December 2020 and early 2021. Consequently, inflation-adjusted GDP exceeded its prerecession peak in the first quarter of 2021.

Goodman added the decision to attend college is influenced by the economic landscape, but a robust job market presents compelling opportunities for immediate employment or for jobs that do not require high academic degrees, making college less attractive for some.

“When the labor market is good for employees, the people will think, ‘Why am I going to spend money to go to college (when) there are already so many jobs that I can get?’” said Goodman.

“I also think it’s important to acknowledge that the sets of students who are going to UMass and state universities are different students,” he said.

The UMass system has over 150 centers and institutes and is known for its extensive research capabilities across various disciplines. But students attending state universities often come from lower-income families and may face more socioeconomic challenges, according to Goodman, including students who need to financially support their families, especially if their parents have lost jobs, influencing their decision to work instead of attend college.

Some students are rethinking college degrees, said Goodman, explaining they may be more weakly attached to higher education with the decision to attend college more heavily weighed against the immediate economic benefits of working.

According to Goodman, as the labor market improved dramatically in the 2010s and unemployment rates declined, there was a greater incentive for students attending public universities to pursue immediate employment rather than college that may have led to enrollment difficulties at state universities.

That prompted Worcester State to reach out to every student individually since 2020, according to Forsythe. Faculty and staff volunteered to make phone calls to each student to understand their needs, whether it was academic support, financial aid or other issues, to ensure that all students felt connected and supported by the university.

“We love to talk to our students, but that you cannot connect with every student every day,” said Forsythe.

Affordability is another factor that discourages students from enrolling in college.

“This is important to make it accessible because private schools are not an option for everybody,” said Jones.

Forsythe added that their students are very sensitive to the cost of education. Even with the increased financial aid that the Healey-Driscoll administration has allocated to help students with emergency situations, tuition average increases — roughly $200 over the last five years at Worcester State University, for example — still remain a substantial burden for students.

According to data provided by the Department of Higher Education, the tuition rates at UMass and state universities climbed by 2% and 3% in fall 2023, respectively. Worcester State saw the largest increase of all those institutions and all raised their tuition from 2014 to 2023.

“In addition to academic support, many of our students need financial support as well,” said Forsythe.

Some smaller private colleges in New England have already faced closures due to difficulties maintaining sufficient enrollment levels, which directly affects their financial viability, according to Goodman. The Department of Higher Education tracks and makes publicly accessible the names of closed institutions.

Public university systems, due to their larger size and scale, are generally less vulnerable to the immediate impacts of reduced enrollments compared to smaller private institutions. However, they are not immune to financial challenges.

“What the state can do is help these institutions offer as simple and clear financial aid as possible,” he said.

The ongoing issues over federal financial aid applications with the U.S. Department of Education happened this year, Goodman said. The efforts to simplify the process have led to technical problems, causing delays and confusion for students seeking financial aid. These challenges highlight the complex dynamics between economic conditions, demographic trends and educational policies that higher education institutions must navigate.

“It might get better in future days, but it clearly demonstrates how important it is to make things simple and transparent for the students,” said Goodman.

“Of course, it’s crucial to balance the various roles, the amount of money received in the different school systems, but what I care about is how to help students get a better education,” he said.