Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Sunday 2 Jun - Tuesday 11 Jun
Early in June, conditions are likely to be more settled due to the influence of high pressure extending east over the country. A few showers could still develop in places but for most it will be a dry at the start of the period with plenty of sunshine. Feeling warm generally though cooler near the coast where onshore breezes develop. This fair weather is likely to continue for a few days into the following week, but thereafter the outlook becomes more uncertain. The south of the UK will probably be drier, although not ruling out scattered showers at times. Cooler and cloudier further northwest, where rain is more likely. Temperatures will probably be around normal or a little above average.
Wednesday 12 Jun - Wednesday 26 Jun
Current indications are that the chances of high pressure or low pressure dominating are fairly balanced for this period. There is no strong signal for either dry or wet conditions being the more prominent feature of the weather. On balance, it is probable that a continuation of variable, slow moving weather patterns are likely through much of June, similar to that which has been experienced through May. However, with potentially slow moving weather systems there is still a chance that longer-lived drier, or even wetter, spells are entirely possible too. Temperatures are most likely to be around or above normal.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).