Anticipation is building for this year's iPhone 16 release date as we head into the summer months. That's when rumors really start to pick up about Apple's next phones — including when they might land in our hands.
There might be more interest than usual in this year's models. First, there's the prospect of AI taking a more prominent role in driving some of the iPhone's major features. That will be a big part of the iOS 18 software, which gets a preview this month at WWDC 2024.
But beyond the software, there could be some significant changes to the iPhone 16 lineup. We're anticipating new screen sizes and camera improvements for the iPhone 16 Pro models, while every iPhone should feature Apple's latest A18 system-on-chip, as the phone maker has faced stepped-up competition from the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 silicon powering the best Android phones this year.
In short, notable hardware and software improvements are coming to this year's iPhones. The biggest remaining question is when are this year's iPhones coming to us?
Even though the fall launch window is approaching, we still don't know for certain what the specific iPhone 16 release date. But thanks to Apple's track record with iPhone launches and a handful of rumors about possible release dates, we can make a pretty good guess as to when the new models will appear.
Here's our best guess as to when the iPhone 16's likely release will happen just in case you're trying to decide whether you're going to upgrade your phone once the new models arrive.
iPhone 16 release date: When does Apple release new phones?
Look at Apple's history of iPhone rollouts — especially its recent history — and you notice a few distinct patterns. Excluding the iPhone SE models that have come out in the springtime — the current iPhone SE 2022 shipped on March 18, 2022, for example — Apple holds its iPhone launch events in the fall. That way, new phones reach retail shelves in time for the holiday shopping season, the most important quarter on Apple's fiscal calendar.
| Phone | Announce date | Release date |
| iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15 Pro Max | September 12, 2023 | September 22, 2023 |
| iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Pro, iPhone 14 Pro Max | September 7, 2022 | September 16, 2022 |
| iPhone 14 Plus | September 7, 2022 | October 7, 2022 |
| iPhone 13, iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13 Pro, iPhone 13 Pro Max | September 14, 2021 | September 24, 2021 |
| iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Pro | October 13, 2020 | October 23, 2020 |
| iPhone 12 mini, iPhone 12 Pro Max | October 13, 2020 | November 13, 2020 |
| iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, iPhone 11 Pro Max | September 10. 2019 | September 20, 2019 |
| iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max | September 12, 2018 | September 21, 2018 |
| iPhone XR | September 12, 2018 | October 26, 2018 |
| iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus | September 12, 2017 | September 22, 2017 |
| iPhone X | September 12, 2017 | November 3, 2017 |
| iPhone 7, iPhone 7 Plus | September 7, 2016 | September 16, 2016 |
| iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus | September 9, 2015 | September 25, 2015 |
But we can drill down even further into Apple's release history if we look at when phones came out dating back nearly a decade. Only once has Apple released phones in October within the last decade, and that was at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Otherwise, Apple's phone launches occur in September, with a launch event followed by a full release roughly 10 days later.
Just last year, all four iPhone 15 models made their debut on September 12, going on sale by September 22. The iPhone 14 followed a similar schedule in 2023, with the iPhone 14 Plus shipping a few weeks after the rest of the new lineup.
That raises another point about Apple's iPhone track record. Generally, the phone maker releases all its new devices at the same time. But four times since 2015, Apple has had to stagger the releases of some phones, usually due to supply constraints as it introduced new sizes to its lineup. With the iPhone 16 Pro display expected to grow to 6.3 inches while the iPhone 16 Pro Max screen increases to 6.9 inches, that could be relevant for this year's release, though we haven't yet heard anything about supply chain issues possibly staggering the release of the four phones in the iPhone 16 lineup.
One last note about Apple's release schedule for new iPhones. Only once in the last decade has the company held its launch event later than September 15 — again during the pandemic year that gave us the iPhone 12 lineup. If you want to pick a date for the iPhone 16 launch, expect it to happen in the first two weeks of September.
iPhone 16 release date: What the rumors say
Rumors about the iPhone 16 release date remain few and far between, though that's not necessarily surprising. Reports on pricing and availability tend to surface closer to the actual launch date.
The general assumption is that Apple's new phones will arrive in the fall, with a few citing that likely September release window.
This may be a case of "no news is good news," as any reports about a later-than-expected iPhone 16 release would likely have surfaced by now. We can only assume that all systems are go for iPhone 16 development and production, at least until we hear reports one way or the other.
Apple has already held an event in May to show off new iPads, and its focus at the moment is clearly on WWDC, which starts June 10. Once the developer conference wraps up, we'd expect more iPhone 16 details to emerge, including rumblings about the specific release date for the phones.
iPhone 16 release date: What we think
Given a lack of guidance from iPhone 16 release date rumors, we're going out on a limb to guess at a specific date for Apple's iPhone launch. So we're mainly going to rely on the assumption that Apple will repeat the strategy it's used in the eight of the last nine years.
Let's break out a calendar with four ideas in mind.
- Apple likes to hold its iPhone event in September — usually within the first two weeks of the month.
- Apple generally holds product launches on Tuesdays. (That's when the May 7 Let Loose event introducing new iPad Pro and iPad Air models took place, for example.)
- If possible, Apple tries to avoid holding its event on the Tuesday right ater the Labor Day holiday in the U.S. That holiday falls on the first Monday of September.
- Apple generally ships iPhones about 10 days after its launch event.
Labor Day falls on Monday, September 2 this year, so we'd imagine that rules out the first week of September for a possible iPhone 16 launch event, unless Apple were to hold its event on Wednesday. (It happened in 2018 with the iPhone XR/iPhone XS launch event, as Tuesday that year would have fallen on the anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks.) Otherwise, we're looking at the week of September 9 or September 16 for the iPhone 16 announcement.
We'd guess the week of September 9, given that Apple prefers to announce new phones before the midway point of the month. That would point to September 10 as the day Apple holds its launch event. Under the assumption that Apple sticks to its usual release pattern for phones, iPhone 16 pre-orders would start the end of that week, with the phones hitting retail shelves by September 20.
iPhone 16 release date: Outlook
Our guess of a September 10 launch date for the iPhone 16 is merely that — a guess. The minute a more definitive rumor comes along, we'll update our prediction accordingly.
For now, though, it sounds like the iPhone 16 remains on track for a September launch, even if we still don't know for certain what day that launch will take place on.
More from Tom's Guide
- iPhone 16 — 7 biggest rumored upgrades
- iPhone SE 4 — all the rumors and what we want to see
- Forget the iPad — it's the iPhone 16 Pro that needs Apple Pencil 3 support
