Derrick Henry’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Dynasty fantasy managers often don’t have much interest in non-QB skill position players who are older than 30 in fear of the age cliff claiming another victim the very next season. Derrick Henry just turned 30 earlier this year and is playing for a new team that won’t require him to be the driving engine of the offense.

Yet, he joined an exceptionally productive rushing offense in Baltimore, which makes his dynasty value heading into his first year with the Ravens a bit tricky to pinpoint.

Derrick Henry’s Dynasty Outlook

On paper, Henry doesn’t possess some of the desired traits of other fantasy backs at the position. In a day and age where full-PPR leagues are the most popular format and the day of the bell cow running back is a rare commodity, Henry has managed to sustain fantasy greatness with sheer dominance as a ball carrier despite his lack of career receiving production.

Let’s start with the outstanding aspects of Henry’s game. He has rushed for 10+ TDs for six straight seasons, which included a 2021 campaign where he appeared in only eight games. Additionally, he has rushed for over 1,000 yards in five of his last six seasons as a purely dominant force as a pure ball carrier.

What is more fascinating is his production in full-PPR formats without a reliable pass-catching floor.

Over that same five-year period, Henry has caught more than 30 passes on just one occasion. Furthermore, Henry still finished as a top-eight fantasy back in full-PPR formats four times. In some ways, that doesn’t make sense in today’s modern NFL, but Henry has never quite fit the mold of any back we’ve ever seen in the league over the last 25 years.

His elite runner production has been undeniable during his great run with the Titans. However, these numbers were all produced while he was with the Titans and did take a slight dip in 2023.

Henry did post some rough games in 2023, failing to top 50 rushing yards in seven out of the 17 games last year. He finished with a career-low 4.17 yards per carry (YPC) in 2023. Admittedly, there could be some context required with these numbers. It is certainly worth mentioning he was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and middling quarterback play and still managed to run for 1,167 yards and 12 TDs last year.

Could some of this drop in efficiency be signaling a natural decline for an aging play? Sure. Could this drop in efficiency be closely tied to him operating in a very poor situation while splitting work with Tyjae Spears? That is also very plausible. So, how does his recent performance and advancing age affect his dynasty value heading into his first season with the Ravens?

Let’s start here. No disrespect to Gus Edwards, but if he can rush for 800+ yards and 13 TDs at 28 years old, then Henry could certainly hit those numbers in a vastly improved fantasy situation in one of the league’s premier rushing attacks. If anything, Edwards’ production last season could be a baseline floor to help fantasy managers set reasonable expectations for his first year in Baltimore.

MORE: PFN’s Consensus Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

Additionally, Henry is coming from a Titans offense that generated just 48 trips to the red zone last year, which ranked 23rd in the league, to a Ravens team that produced 68 trips to the fantasy goldmine area in 2023. Because of his effectiveness in short-yardage situations, this could drastically increase Henry’s volume of opportunities to find pay dirt this upcoming season.

Assuming he stays healthy, it is very hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t score 10+ rushing TDs this season. The other competition on the roster at running back shouldn’t really scare anyone, either. Keaton Mitchell, Justice Hill, and Rasheen Ali don’t feel like better prospects than the aforementioned Spears to steal too much work away from him.

Sure, his pass-catching floor won’t improve in Baltimore, but it doesn’t really need, given his projected role in this offense.

Henry still represents RB1-type value for the 2024 NFL season, making him a useful RB option for teams in contention for a championship.

Henry’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Henry rank in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Tate’s latest dynasty rankings, featuring Henry’s ranking in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Breece Hall | NYJ
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) Saquon Barkley | PHI
8) Kyren Williams | LAR
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) James Cook | BUF
12) De’Von Achane | MIA
13) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
14) Trey Benson | ARI
15) D’Andre Swift | CHI
16) Josh Jacobs | GB
17) Alvin Kamara | NO
18) Tyjae Spears | TEN
19) Javonte Williams | DEN
20) Jonathon Brooks | CAR

21) Austin Ekeler | WAS
22) Tony Pollard | TEN
23) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
25) Jaylen Wright | MIA
26) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
27) Joe Mixon | HOU
28) Aaron Jones | MIN
29) Zamir White | LV
30) Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
31) Derrick Henry | BAL
32) Nick Chubb | CLE
33) David Montgomery | DET
34) Chase Brown | CIN
35) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
36) Najee Harris | PIT
37) Kendre Miller | NO
38) Kimani Vidal | LAC
39) Rasheen Ali | BAL
40) Ray Davis | BUF

Should You Trade Henry in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Henry? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!

It should go without saying that if you are a team amid a rebuild, then Henry is a sell candidate ahead of the 2024 NFL season. In this scenario, you may have to come to terms with never receiving the type of actual value he is worth to a fantasy roster this season because of his advanced age and the perceived lack of an elite fantasy ceiling due to his lack of involvement in the passing game.

MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024

On the other hand, if you are in the mix or a front-runner for a fantasy championship, Henry could be a productive contributor to your roster at a reduced price because of his age and low full-PPR floor.

I’m certainly not aggressively aiming to buy a plethora of shares of Henry ahead of the 2024 season, but he could still be a player worth adding in certain situations.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.