Climate Conundrum: Bridging the Gap Between Science and Security | American Academy of Arts and Sciences

Climate Conundrum: Bridging the Gap Between Science and Security

May 14-15, 2024 
Cambridge, MA 

Chairs: Neta C. Crawford and Tanisha M. Fazal 

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Contents
 

Agenda

Agenda Statement

Reading List

Participant Biographies

Glossary of Climate Security Terms
 

 

Agenda
 

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Location: Sheraton Commander Hotel 
 

6:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m 
Reception 
 


Wednesday, May 15, 2024 

Location: Council Room, The House of the Academy
 

8:00 a.m. 
Shuttle from Sheraton Commander Hotel to the Academy 

8:00 a.m. – 8:50 a.m. 
Breakfast available 
Location: Atrium 

8:50 a.m. – 9:00 a.m. 
Welcoming Remarks 
David Oxtoby, President, American Academy of Arts and Sciences 

9:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. 
Overview and Introduction 
Speakers: 
Neta Crawford, Montague Burton Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford 
Tanisha Fazal, Professor of Political Science, University of Minnesota 

9:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. 
Session I: Military and War-Related Emissions 
Moderator: 
Jennifer Welsh, Canada 150 Research Chair in Global Governance and Security; Director of the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies (CIPSS), McGill University 
Speakers: 
Neta Crawford, Montague Burton Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford 
Linsey Cottrell, Environmental Policy Officer, Conflict Environment Observatory 

Group discussion, followed by coffee break 
 

11:15 a.m. – 12:45 p.m. 
Session II: The Securitization of Climate 
Moderator: 
Jumaina Siddiqui, Director of Global Security & International Affairs, American Academy of Arts and Sciences 
Speakers: 
Sherri Goodman, Senior Fellow, Polar Institute and Environmental Change & Security Program, Wilson Center 
V. Page Fortna, Harold Brown Professor of U.S. Foreign and Security Policy, Columbia University 

Group discussion, followed by group photo 
 

12:45 p.m. 
Lunch 
Location: West Dining Room 

1:45 p.m – 3:15 p.m.
Session III: Solar Radiation Modification 
Location: Council Room 
Moderator: 
Neta Crawford, Montague Burton Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford 
Speakers: 
Joseph Aldy, Teresa and John Heinz Professor of the Practice of Environmental Policy, Harvard Kennedy School 
Dustin Tingley, Professor of Government, Harvard University 

Group discussion, followed by break 
 

3:30 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. 
Closing Discussion 
Location: Council Room 
Moderator: 
Tanisha Fazal, Professor of Political Science, University of Minnesota 
Speakers: 
Peter Frumhoff, Lecturer on Environmental Science and Public Policy, Harvard University; Senior Science Policy Advisor, Woodwell Climate Research Center
Martha Finnemore, University Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, The George Washington University 

Group discussion, followed by reception 
 

5:00 p.m. 
Reception 
Location: Atrium 

5:30 p.m. 
Dinner 
Location: Garden Room 

7:30 p.m. 
Shuttle from the Academy to the Sheraton Commander Hotel 
 

 

Agenda Statement
 

Climate change is the existential crisis of our time and confronting climate change requires global solutions. Yet scholars of international relations (IR) and international security have been slow to turn their attention to this critical issue and tend not to work with climate change experts from other disciplines, including the sciences and geography. Much of the existing IR and security studies scholarship on climate change focuses on how climate change negotiations work, how climate change might produce conflict, or on the political economy of decarbonization, leaving a vast and urgent set of issues to examine.

At the same time, many of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Assessment Reports rely on political-economic scenarios—including shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)—and causal assumptions and models that have not benefitted from the expertise of international relations scholars.

Interdisciplinary collaboration and conversation are often difficult. Yet collaborations could be quite fruitful. Climate change experts could benefit from IR experts’ understanding of system change, conflict, institutionalization, and collaboration. IR experts could benefit from a deeper understanding of climate science.

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences is convening a one-day off-the-record workshop, led by Dr. Neta Crawford and Dr. Tanisha Fazal, focused on a set of issues where IR scholars’ input could be most useful. We have invited climate experts, scholars already working in climate-related fields, and scholars who are not yet working in these fields, but whose expertise lends itself to this general topic. We envision the day as a series of conversations centered around three issues: military emissions, the securitization of climate, and solar geoengineering. Questions around global governance will be threaded throughout each conversation. We chose these topics because they require a multi-disciplinary approach and raise important questions.

For example, military and war-time emissions are a significant gap in our understanding of national and international emissions. Will SSPs be achievable if military emissions are not accounted for? How can we account for wartime emissions or the radiative forcing effects of high-altitude flights? Understanding trends in conflict will be essential to answering these questions.

Climate change has been securitized, but the best social science on this topic, rooted in case studies, shows that the relationship between climate and conflict is quite complex. What are the specific connections between climate change and conflict or climate change and conflict resolution? What international mechanisms can resolve conflicts over water and other resources?

Finally, solar geo-engineering has been identified as a scientific possibility, but in addition to its technical problems and prospects, it poses questions for international coordination, governance, and control. Could rogue nations deploy a solar geo-engineering system? How could weaponization of solar geoengineering be avoided?

The day will be structured around three panel sessions. Each panel will be launched by two short presentations respectively by an IR scholar and a climate change expert. The presentations will be brief (5-10 minutes each), designed to put a few key points on the table and to raise questions for discussion and further research. Our aims are to: 1) acquaint IR scholars with new material and to introduce climate experts to the theoretical and empirical resources that IR scholars bring to bear; and, 2) to identify new or persistent questions where the expertise of both IR scholars and climate experts are needed.

We anticipate that one output from this meeting will be a list of research questions—to which others can be added—that will inform outreach to funding agencies. Another output will be the creation of a new network of climate experts and established international relations scholars interested in conducting research on climate change.

We will offer readings and a virtual session prior to the meeting to those IR experts who would like a primer on climate change science as well as the technical language and processes associated with international climate negotiations. 
 

 

Reading List
 

Required
 

These readings will provide an overview of the topics covered in the May 15th meeting sessions. We selected these readings as they are geared toward a more generalist audience. 

  1. de Klerk, Lennard, et al. “Climate Damage Caused by Russia’s War in Ukraine.” Climate Focus, The Initiative on GHG Accounting of War, November 1, 2022. 
  2. Jayaram, Dhanasree. “Shifting discourses of climate security in India: Domestic and international dimensions.” Third World Quarterly, February 19, 2024, pp. 1–19. 
  3. Gupta, Aarti, et al. “Towards a non-use regime on solar geoengineering: Lessons from international law and governance.” Transnational Environmental Law, February 27, 2024, pp. 1–32. 
     

Optional
 

These readings were suggested by meeting attendees. 

  1. Ali, Saleem H. “The G7’s Energy Awakening.” Project Syndicate, September 21, 2022. 
  2. Burke, Sharon. “Achieving Climate Security.” United States Institute of Peace, 2023. 
  3. Busby, Joshua W. “Climate security: How to write about the future without lapsing into prophecy.” PS: Political Science & Politics, vol. 57, no. 1, September 7, 2023, pp. 45–49. 
  4. Colgan, Jeff D. “Climate Change and the Politics of Military Bases.” Global Environmental Politics, vol. 18, no. 1, February 2018, pp. 33–51. 
  5. Colgan, Jeff D. “Climate Change, Grand Strategy, and International Order.” Wilson Center, July 23, 2021. 
  6. Green, Jessica F. “Global Climate Policy beyond the Paris Agreement.” PS: Political Science & Politics, vol. 57, no. 1, September 7, 2023. 
  7. Love, Hannah, and Manann Donoghoe. “Atlanta’s ‘Cop City’ and the Relationship Between Place, Policing, and Climate.” Brookings, September 21, 2023. 
  8. Muggah, Robert. “Climate Threats Are Multiplying in the Horn of Africa.” Foreign Policy, December 8, 2021. 
  9. Sikkink, Kathryn. “How international relations theory on norm cascades can inform the politics of climate change.” PS: Political Science & Politics, vol. 57, no. 1, September 7, 2023, pp. 36–39. 
  10. “The Race for the Arctic Is Ramping up. Here’s Why.” YouTube, DW Planet A, November 25, 2022. 
     

 

Participant Biographies
 

Joseph (Joe) Aldy is the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of the Practice of Environmental Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. His research focuses on climate change policy, energy policy, and regulatory policy. He is a currently a University Fellow at Resources for the Future, a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also the Faculty Chair for the Regulatory Policy Program at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. In 2009–2010, Aldy served as the Special Assistant to the President for Energy and Environment, reporting through both the National Economic Council and the Office of Energy and Climate Change at the White House. Aldy was a Fellow at Resources for the Future from 2005 to 2008 and served on the staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisers from 1997 to 2000. He also served as the Co-Director of the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements, Co-Director of the International Energy Workshop, and Treasurer for the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists before joining the Obama Administration. He holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University, a Master of Environmental Management degree from the Nicholas School of the Environment, and a BA from Duke University.

Saleem H. Ali is the Blue and Gold Distinguished Professor of Energy and the Environment at the University of Delaware, a Senior Fellow at Columbia University's Center on Sustainable Investment, Lead for Critical Minerals at the United Nations University (INWEH), and Honorary Professor at the University of Queensland (Australia). He is also a member of the United Nations International Resource Panel and served 2 terms on the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel of the Global Environment Facility. His latest books are Earthly Order: How Natural Laws Define Human Life (Oxford University Press, 2022) and Soil to Foil: Aluminum and the Quest for Industrial Sustainability (Columbia University Press, 2023). He received his doctorate in Environmental planning from MIT and a Master’s degree in Environmental Studies from Yale. Professor Ali is a citizen of Pakistan, Australia and the United States of America. X – @saleem_ali

Sabrina B. Arias is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs. Beginning in Fall 2024, she will be an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University. She received her PhD in Political Science in 2023 from the University of Pennsylvania. Her research focuses on international organizations, diplomacy, and climate politics, and has been published in the American Political Science Review, the Journal of Politics, and International Studies Quarterly. She examines agenda-setting in IOs: which states control IOs? agendas? How do different actors maximize their agenda-setting power? And through what pathways do critical issues like climate change reach the agendas of IOs and of other political bodies? Across these themes, she broadly focuses on the political dynamics of the policymaking process, and especially which actors and strategies are most influential. To address these questions, she employs a diverse methodological toolkit, including text analysis, experiments, statistical methods, and elite interviews. These insights about the role of diplomacy, power, and agenda control challenge our understanding of the relative importance of power and diplomacy in IOs, and the extent to which small states influence international politics on crucial issues like climate change. 

Edward R. Carr is Centre Director and Senior Scientist at SEI US. Carr arrived at SEI after a two-decade career spanning academia and various environment and development institutions, including USAID, the World Bank, and the Global Environmental Facility. The author of more than 90 publications on issues of global development, agrarian livelihoods, adaptation to climate change, and the changing global environment, Carr’s work focuses on understanding and addressing challenges emerging at the intersection of adaptation, resilience, and development. This research is marked by a commitment to linking academic research on development and global change with practical applications in policy, implementation, monitoring, evaluation, and learning. Carr has made contributions to significant global environmental assessments and policy frameworks. He is currently a coordinating lead author of the IPBES Transformative Change Assessment and a member of the Climate-Security Roundtable of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. He served as the lead author for three prior global environmental assessments, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, the United Nations Environment Program’s Fourth Global Environment Outlook, and the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report. Carr holds a Ph.D. in Geography from the University of Kentucky, and a Ph.D. in Anthropology from Syracuse University. 

Linsey Cottrell is the Environmental Policy Officer at the Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS)—a UK charity focusing on the environmental impacts of conflicts. She is a Chartered Environmentalist and worked in the environmental consultancy sector for 25 years, before joining CEOBS in 2019. At CEOBS, Linsey has worked on military greenhouse emissions and supporting the integration of environmental protection in humanitarian disarmament programs. She is an experienced environmental practitioner, including environmental risk assessment, contaminated land, environmental due diligence, and environmental impact assessment. She was also a trustee of the UK’s Institution of Environmental Sciences from 2016 until 2022. 

Neta C. Crawford is an American political scientist currently serving as Montague Burton Professor of International Relations at the University of Oxford. She was formerly professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at the Boston University College of Arts and Sciences. Formerly an adjunct professor at Brown University, Crawford co-founded the Costs of War Project with anthropologist Catherine Lutz in 2010 and currently serves alongside Lutz and Stephanie Savell as a project co-director. Crawford is the author of Accountability for Killing: Moral Responsibility for Collateral Damage in America's Post-9/11 Wars (Oxford University Press, 2013). Crawford is also the author of two books, Soviet Military Aircraft (1987) and Argument and Change in World Politics (2002), named Best Book in International History and Politics by the American Political Science Association. She is the author of The Pentagon, Climate Change and War, published on October 4, 2022. She is currently working on another book, To Make Heaven Weep: Civilians and the American Way of War. She has written more than two dozen peer reviewed articles on issues of war and peace. Crawford has served on the governing Board of the Academic Council of the United Nations System, and on the Governing Council of the American Political Science Association. 

Ann-Christine Duhaime is a senior pediatric neurosurgeon at the Massachusetts General Hospital and is the Nicholas T. Zervas Distinguished Professor of Neurosurgery at Harvard Medical School. Her neuroscience research investigates mechanisms, pathophysiology, imaging, and treatment of injury in the immature brain, using translational and clinical approaches to study injuries occurring in infants and young children, including those seen most commonly in child abuse. The work also investigates plasticity, recovery, and return of brain function in children and adolescents during maturation. Dr. Duhaime also has a longstanding interest in the relationship between brain and behavior, and in environmental issues. She is a Faculty Associate of the Harvard University Center for the Environment. Beginning with a fellowship at the Radcliffe Institute in 2016 she has explored the neurobiology of reward circuitry and plasticity and its relevance to pro-environmental behavior, and also worked with a diverse team to design a prototype advanced “green” biophilic pediatric hospital. Her book on this work, Minding the Climate (Harvard University Press), was awarded the Sustainability Book of the Year in 2023 by Project Syndicate. She now serves as Associate Director of the Massachusetts General Hospital Center for the Environment and Health, supervising the Research pillar, as Associate Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Climate Change and Health, and is pursuing interdisciplinary collaboration on the intersection of climate change, war, and health. 

Tanisha M. Fazal is Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota. Her scholarship focuses on sovereignty, international law, and armed conflict. Fazal’s current research analyzes the effect of improvements in medical care in conflict zones on the long-term costs of war. She is the author of State Death: The Politics and Geography of Conquest, Occupation, and Annexation (Princeton University Press, 2007), which won the 2008 Best Book Award of the American Political Science Association’s Conflict Processes Section, Wars of Law: Unintended Consequences in the Regulation of Armed Conflict (Cornell University Press, 2018), winner of the 2019 Best Book Award of the International Studies Association’s International Law Section and the 2019 Best Book Award of the American Political Science Association’s International Collaboration Section, and (most recently) Military Medicine and the Hidden Costs of War (Oxford University Press, 2024). Her work has also appeared in journals such as the British Journal of Political Science, Dædalus, Foreign Affairs, International Organization, International Security, International Studies Quarterly, International Studies Review, Journal of Global Security Studies, The Lancet, and Security Studies. She has been a fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University, and the Carnegie Council on International Ethics. From 2021–2023, she was an Andrew Carnegie Fellow. 

Martha Finnemore is a University Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University in Washington, DC. Her research focuses on global governance, international organizations, cybersecurity, ethics, and social theory. Her innovative scholarly contributions have been recognized by numerous awards, most recently the 2023 Johan Skytte Award. She is the co-author (with Michael Barnett) of Rules for the World: International Organizations in Global Politics, which won the International Studies Association’s award for Best Book in 2006. She is also author of National Interests in International Society and The Purpose of Intervention, which won the American Political Science Association’s Woodrow Wilson Award as the best book published on government, politics, or international affairs in 2004. Her most recent books are Back to Basics: State Power in a Contemporary World (Oxford University Press 2013) and Who Governs the Globe? (Cambridge University Press 2010). She is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a non-resident scholar at the Cyber Policy Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She has been a visiting research fellow at the Brookings Institution and Stanford University and has received fellowships or grants from DoD’s Minerva Research Initiative, the MacArthur Foundation, the Social Science Research Council, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the United States Institute of Peace. 

V. Page Fortna (Ph.D. Harvard, 1998) is the Harold Brown Professor of US Foreign and Security Policy in the Political Science Department at Columbia University. Her research focuses on terrorism, the durability of peace in the aftermath of both civil and interstate wars, and war termination. She is the author of two books: Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents Choices after Civil War (Princeton University Press, 2008) and Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace (Princeton University Press, 2004). She has published articles in journals such as International Organization, World Politics, International Studies Quarterly, and International Studies Review. She is currently working on a project on terrorism in civil wars. Her research combines quantitative and qualitative methods, draws on diverse theoretical approaches, and focuses on policy-relevant questions. Fortna is a member of the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. She received the Karl Deutsch Award from the International Studies Association in 2010. She has held fellowships at the Olin Institute at Harvard, the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Hoover Institution. She received her BA from Wesleyan University. Fortna was a visiting scholar at the American Academy in 2002–2003. 

Peter C. Frumhoff teaches environmental science and public policy at Harvard University and is the senior science policy advisor at the Woodwell Climate Research Center. A global change ecologist, his research extends from the role of forests in climate mitigation to the climate responsibilities of fossil fuel companies to the responsible governance of solar geoengineering research. Dr. Frumhoff served through 2023 on the Board of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. He is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the 2022 Richman Distinguished Fellow in Public Life at Brandeis University. Through 2021, he was the longtime director of science and policy and chief climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists. There, he led strategies and initiatives to bring robust climate science to bear on informing public understanding and motivating public policies; guided science, equity, and innovation post-doctoral fellowships; and served as senior liaison with the scientific community, policymakers, funders and the media. He was a lead author of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, and lead author of the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry. He has guided multiple regional climate impacts assessments, including the 2007 Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment. Dr. Frumhoff has taught at Stanford University, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and the University of Maryland. He was a AAAS Science and Diplomacy Fellow at the US Agency for International Development. He received a PhD in ecology and an MA in zoology from the University of California, Davis, and a BA in psychology magna cum laude from the University of California, San Diego. 

Sherri Goodman is the Secretary General of the International Military Council on Climate & Security (IMCCS), representing over 40 military and national security organizations addressing the security risks of a changing climate. Sherri serves as Vice-Chair of the US Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board (ISAB). She is a Senior Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center’s Polar Institute and Environmental Change & Security Program, as well as a Senior Strategist at the Center for Climate & Security. Sherri is the author of Threat Multiplier: Climate, Military Leadership, and the Fight for Global Security, coming in 2024. She chairs the Board of the Council on Strategic Risks and chairs the External Advisory Board on Energy and Homeland Security for Sandia National Laboratories. She serves on the Climate Council of the US EXIM Bank and on the National Academies’ Advisory Board of the US Global Change Research Program. Sherri is a Board Director of the Atlantic Council and a Life Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Sherri is the former President and CEO of the Consortium for Ocean Leadership. She served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel of CNA (US Center for Naval Analyses). She is the founder and Executive Director of the CNA Military Advisory Board, whose landmark reports include National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007) and Advanced Energy and US National Security (2017). Sherri served as the first Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security), (1993-2001), where she was responsible for environmental, energy, safety, and occupational health for the US Department of Defense. Sherri received EPA’s Climate Change Award and twice received the DOD medal for Distinguished Public Service. A graduate of Amherst College, she has degrees from Harvard Law School and Harvard Kennedy School. 

Joshua Horton is the senior program fellow for solar geoengineering at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, as well as the Research Director for the Global Commission on Governing Risks from Climate Overshoot (Climate Overshoot Commission). Dr. Horton conducts research on solar geoengineering policy and other aspects of global climate governance. He previously worked as a clean energy consultant for a global energy consulting firm. Dr. Horton holds a PhD in political science from Johns Hopkins University and was a postdoctoral research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center.

Tana Johnson is an Associate Professor of Public Affairs and Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Her research examines the design and operations of inter-governmental and non-governmental institutions in international relations. Her book Organizational Progeny: Why Governments are Losing Control over the Proliferating Structures of Global Governance (Oxford University Press, 2014, 2017) is the winner of the International Studies Association’s Alger Prize for the best book on international organization and multilateralism. Her book International Organizations: The Politics and Processes of Global Governance (Lynne Rienner Publishing, 2023) is a comprehensive examination of institutions accessible to practitioners and scholars alike. Johnson has received fellowships from Princeton University, Vanderbilt University, and the Global Governance Futures (GGF) program. In addition, she has served as a faculty advisor and instructor for graduate students who intern in international organizations around Geneva, Switzerland. Prior to joining the faculty at UW-Madison, Johnson was an Associate Professor of Public Policy and Political Science at Duke University. 

Carla Martínez Machain is a Professor of Political Science at the University at Buffalo. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from Rice University in May 2012. Martínez Machain’s research (funded by the Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative and the Army Research Office, among others) focuses on foreign policy analysis, with a focus on military policy and international conflict. Her new book with Oxford University Press is titled Beyond the Wire: U.S. Military Deployments and Host Country Public Opinion. Her work has appeared in various journals, including the American Political Science Review, the Journal of Politics, and the Journal of Conflict Resolution. She has also written for policy-oriented outlets such as The Washington Post's Monkey Cage blog and The Conversation. 

Dr. Tomohiro Oda is a senior scientist at Universities Space Research Association (USRA), a non-profit research organization in Washington, DC. Oda is an internationally recognized greenhouse gas (GHG) researcher. Oda has nearly two decades of experience of producing “value-added” science products that are based on a wide variety of Earth observation satellite data in support of science and climate/environmental monitoring. He is known for his pioneering work of a nightlight-based global human CO2 emission map, which has been widely used in carbon cycle science. Over the decade, Oda has taken a leading role in NASA’s carbon modeling system developments, including NASA’s new initiative Earth Information System (EIS). Oda is an active contributor to international activities, such as the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Greenhouse Gas Watch (G3W). At USRA, Oda oversees USRA’s activities as an observer NGO for the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). He leads the USRA delegation to UN Conference of Parties (COP) climate meetings and facilitates conversations among various actors and stakeholders in different sectors. Before taking his current position, Oda held research positions at leading research institutions, such as NOAA and NASA. Notably, Oda was selected and served as a committee member for the US National Academy’s consensus study on GHG information evaluation framework in 2022. In 2023, he was appointed as a co-chair for the Global Environmental Measurement and Monitoring (GEMM) initiative supported by Optica and American Geophysical Union (AGU). 

Alan Robock is a Distinguished Professor of climate science in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University. He graduated from the University of Wisconsin, Madison, in 1970 with a B.A. in Meteorology, and from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with an S.M. in 1974 and Ph.D. in 1977, both in Meteorology. Before graduate school, he served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in the Philippines. He was a professor at the University of Maryland, 1977–1997, and the State Climatologist of Maryland, 1991–1997, before coming to Rutgers in 1998. Professor Robock has published more than 500 articles on his research in the area of climate change, including more than 285 peer-reviewed papers. His areas of expertise include climate intervention (also called geoengineering), climatic effects of nuclear war, and effects of volcanic eruptions on climate. He serves as Editor of Reviews of Geophysics, the most highly-cited journal in the Earth Sciences. His honors include being a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorological Society (AMS), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a recipient of the AMS Jule Charney Medal. Professor Robock was a Lead Author of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007). In 2017 the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its work “to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons” and for its “groundbreaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons” based partly on the work of Professor Robock. In 2022, Professor Robock was a winner of the Future of Life Award, “For reducing the risk of nuclear war by developing and popularizing the science of nuclear winter.”

Aaron A. Salzberg is the Director of the Water Institute at the University of North Carolina. The goal of the Water Institute is to contribute to a more water secure by advancing research, policy, and practice. From 2010 to 2017, Aaron served as the Special Coordinator for Water at the U.S. Department of State where he managed the development and implementation of U.S. foreign policy on drinking water and sanitation, water resources management, and transboundary water issues. He was the first person to hold this title. In this role, Aaron led the development of the first U.S. Global Water Strategy. Aaron has a Ph.D. in Genetic Toxicology and a Master of Science degree in Technology and Policy from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Masters and Bachelor of Science degrees in Aerospace Engineering from the University of Maryland. He currently holds an appointment as a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center and as a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and serves on the World Meteorological Organization’s Scientific Research Board where he led the development of the WMO’s first research strategy on hydrology. Aaron also serves on the U.S. National Academies of Sciences National Climate Security Roundtable assessing climate-related risks to U.S. national security and on the U.S. Global Change Research Program. 

Erin Sikorsky is Director of the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), and the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS). She is an expert in strategic foresight and the geopolitical, instability, and conflict risks posed by climate change. Previously, Erin served as Deputy Director of the Strategic Futures Group on the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the US, where she co-authored the quadrennial Global Trends report and led the US intelligence community’s environmental and climate security analysis. Erin is an adjunct professor at George Mason University, a member of the Secretary of the Interior's Advisory Council on Climate Adaptation Science, a consultant to the Defense Science Board, and a member of the Smith College Center for Environment, Ecological Design and Sustainability Advisory Board. 

Dustin Tingley is Professor of Government in the Government Department at Harvard University. Dustin is Deputy Vice Provost for Advances in Learning. His research has spanned international relations, international political economy, climate change, causal inference, data science/machine learning, and digital education, with most focus now on the politics of climate change and energy transitions. His new book with Alex Gazmararian, Uncertain Futures: How to Unlock the Climate Impasse, was published with Cambridge University Press. The book features the voices of those on the front lines of the energy transition—a commissioner in Carbon County deciding whether to welcome wind, executives at energy companies searching for solutions, mayors and unions in Minnesota battling for local jobs, and fairgoers in coal country navigating their community's uncertain future. His book on American foreign policy with Helen Milner, Sailing the Water's Edge, was published in fall 2015, and was awarded the Gladys M. Kammerer Award for the best book published in the field of U.S. national policy. He teaches courses on the politics of climate change and the environment, data science, and international relations. In the fall of 2023 he is teaching a new course called Energy at Harvard Business School. 

Jennifer M. Welsh is the Canada 150 Research Chair in Global Governance and Security at McGill University (Montreal) and a Senior Research Fellow at Somerville College, University of Oxford. She was formerly Professor and Chair in International Relations at the European University Institute. She was previously a Professor in International Relations at the University of Oxford, and co-director of the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict. In 2013, she was appointed by the UN Secretary General to serve as his Special Adviser on the Responsibility to Protect. Professor Welsh is a former Jean Monnet Fellow of the European University Institute, and was a Cadieux Research Fellow in the Policy Planning Staff of the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs. She has taught international relations at the University of Toronto, McGill University, and the Central European University (Prague). Professor Welsh is the author, co-author, and editor of several books and articles on international relations, the evolution of the notion of the ‘responsibility to protect’ in international society, the UN Security Council, and Canadian foreign policy. She has a BA from the University of Saskatchewan (Canada), and a Masters and Doctorate from the University of Oxford (where she studied as a Rhodes Scholar). 
 

ACADEMY STAFF 
 

Carson Bullock is the Hellman Fellow for Science and Technology Policy at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Carson grew up in Toledo, OH and completed her B.A. in Political Science and Physics at The College of Wooster. Following an internship at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Carson earned her master’s degree in technology and policy from MIT. At the Academy, Carson supported the Commission on Accelerating Climate Action to publish cross-cutting, bipartisan recommendations for climate response in Forging Climate Solutions: How to Accelerate Action Across America. 

Melissa Chan is the Program Coordinator for Global Security and International Affairs at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. She facilitates projects within the program area, including Rethinking the Humanitarian Health Response to Violent Conflict and Promoting Dialogue on Arms Control and Disarmament. Before joining the Academy in late 2021, Melissa was a political affairs intern at the nonprofit advocacy organization, The Borgen Project. She received her B.A. in International Relations from Boston University, focusing on foreign policy and security studies and the Middle East and North Africa region. 

David Oxtoby has served as President of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences since 2019. During his tenure as President, he has focused on broadening the diversity of the Academy’s membership and has helped move forward project and policy work in areas ranging from strengthening American democracy to climate change, nuclear arms control, undergraduate education, and the arts. From 2017 through 2018 he was a Visiting Scholar at the Harvard Graduate School of Education and co-founded the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration. He is President Emeritus of Pomona College, where he served as President from 2003–2017 and helped to advance environmental sustainability, increasing college access, cultivating creativity, and pursuing academic excellence in the context of an interdisciplinary liberal arts environment. Previously, he was Dean of the Division of Physical Sciences and William Rainey Harper, Distinguished Service Professor of Chemistry at the University of Chicago. Dr. Oxtoby has been the recipient of several fellowships, including from the Guggenheim Foundation and the National Science Foundation. He is a Fellow of the American Physical Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a member of the American Chemical Society, the American Philosophical Society, and the Council on Foreign Relations. He was an Overseer of Harvard University from 2008–2014 (Chair from 2013-2014) and currently serves as a member of the Board of Trustees of Smith College. A member of Phi Beta Kappa, Dr. Oxtoby received honorary degrees from Occidental College (2005), Lingnan University in Hong Kong (2009), and Miami Dade College (2019). He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2012. 

Michelle Poulin is a Program Associate for Global Security and International Affairs. Before joining the Academy in 2022, Michelle worked as a Research Fellow studying global civil resistance movements. Prior to that, they worked in international university recruitment. At the Academy, Michelle works on the Academy’s projects on anticorruption, humanitarian health delivery in conflicts, climate security, and promoting dialogue on arms control and disarmament. Michelle holds a BA in Asian Studies and Anthropology from Hobart and William Smith Colleges and an MPP from Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Governance. 

Peter Robinson is the Interim Chief Program Officer and Peter is the Morton L. Mandel Director of Strategic Implementation. In this role he works with the Academy’s program directors to develop plans for impact and outreach, provide support for defining and measuring the effect of the Academy’s projects and studies, and conduct outreach and collaboration to extend the reach and influence of the Academy. Peter joined the Academy from Devpost, a VC-backed startup and platform for leading companies, universities, and government entities to foster innovation through competitions and hackathons. His role there included business development, goal setting and metrics, and advising clients including GE, Ford, IBM, Microsoft, USDA, and AT&T. Prior to Devpost, Peter launched initiatives and managed partnerships for the New York City Economic Development Corporation during the Bloomberg administration. He has a bachelor’s in philosophy from Reed College, a master’s in economics from New York University, and an MBA from Yale School of Management. 

Jumaina Siddiqui is the Director for Global Security and International Affairs. She is an international development practitioner with over 15 years of experience working on programs focused on peace and conflict, democracy & governance, climate change & the environment, and rule of law in Asia. Prior to joining the Academy, Jumaina was the Senior Program Officer for South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace where she provided technical guidance to USIP’s work in Pakistan and South Asia. At USIP she helped to design research studies, dialogues and on the ground programming in South Asia. Before USIP, she was with the National Democratic Institute as the Program Manager for Pakistan with a portfolio of projects on political party development, elections, and political participation of women and youth. Jumaina has also held positions at Global Communities, American Bar Association’s Rule of Law Initiative, and the Stimson Center. Jumaina received her MA from New York University and BA from American University. 
 

 

Glossary of Climate Security Terms
 

Contents
 

International Legal Instruments

Intergovernmental Bodies, Conferences, Initiatives, and Reports

U.S. Federal and Military Programs, Bodies, and Reports

Technical Terms, Data Sets, Indices, Methodologies, and Principles

 

International Legal Instruments (Chronological Order)
 

Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques (ENMOD): The 1976 convention “prohibits hostile environmental modification, permitting such modifications only for peaceful purposes.”1

Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer: A 1987 agreement that “facilitates a stepwise phase-out of the consumption and production of ozone depleting substances”2 While not intended to limit greenhouse gases, because it regulated fluorinated gases, the Protocol had the unintended effect of reducing a class of greenhouse gas. 

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): “. . . Entered into force on March 21, 1994. Today, it has near-universal membership . . . 198 countries that have ratified the Convention . . . Preventing “dangerous” human interference with the climate system is the ultimate aim of the UNFCCC.”3

Kyoto Protocol: The 1997 protocol “operationalizes the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by committing industrialized (Annex 1) countries and economies in transition to limit and reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in accordance with agreed individual targets.”4 The Kyoto Protocol regulated seven GHGs. Developing countries were not obligated to reduce their emissions. Most military emissions were exempted from explicit reporting in the emissions data that countries give to the IPCC.

Paris Climate Agreement: “An international climate agreement adopted in 2015 with the central aim to hold global temperature rise in this century to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C. All parties agreed to put forward emissions-reduction targets and to strengthen those efforts in the years ahead, as the agreement is assessed every five years. Each country’s proposed mitigation target (the “intended nationally determined contribution”) becomes an official “nationally determined contribution” when the country ratifies the agreement. Parties also agreed to adaptation efforts and finance mechanisms to support low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.”5

United Nations Climate Security Mechanism (UNCSM): “Established in 2018 as a joint initiative between the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, United Nations Environment Program, later joined by the UN Department of Peace Operations ‘to strengthen the capacity of the United Nations to more systematically analyze and address the linkages between climate change, peace and security’ (UNCSM 2022).6 7

International Non-Use Agreement on Solar Geoengineering: In 2022, Biermann et al. proposed creating such an agreement to limit new solar radiation modification (SRM) technology. Adherents to this agreement would agree to ban public SRM funding, outdoor experiments, patents, deployment, and support in international institutions.8  
 

Intergovernmental Bodies, Conferences, Initiatives, and Reports
 

Conference of the Parties (COP): COPs are annual conferences and serve as “the supreme decision-making body of the [UNFCCC] Convention. All States that are Parties to the Convention are represented at the COP, at which they review the implementation of the Convention and any other legal instruments that the COP adopts and take decisions necessary to promote the effective implementation of the Convention, including institutional and administrative arrangements.”9  COPs “are the world’s only multilateral decision-making forum on climate change with almost complete membership of every country in the world . . . the COP is where the world comes together to agree on ways to address the climate crisis, such as limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, helping vulnerable communities adapt to the effects of climate change, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.”10 In 2023 in Dubai, the COP 28 parties established a loss and damage fund to assist countries in the global south that are vulnerable to climate-driven adverse effects in mitigating and repairing loss and damage. In 2024 COP 29 will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan. 

Greening Government Initiative: “An international community of practice for officials engaged in increasing the environmental sustainability of national government operations. Through GGI, countries share information and best practices, showcase innovation and success, and develop collaborative relationships to advance their greening work.”11

International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS): “A network of senior military leaders across the globe that meet regularly, produce an annual World Climate and Security Report, drive communications and policy in support of international actions on the security implications of a changing climate, and amplify existing climate and security networks.”12

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): “The United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change . . . The IPCC prepares comprehensive Assessment Reports about the state of scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge on climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for reducing the rate at which climate change is taking place. It also produces Special Reports on topics agreed to by its member governments, as well as Methodology Reports that provide guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories.”13  

Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package’ (Q-CHAMP): A document produced by the Quad (the US, Japan, Australia, and India) in 2022 confirming their “determination to further advance practical cooperation in addressing climate change, steadfastly implementing the Paris Agreement, and delivering the outcomes of COP26.”14
 

U.S. Federal and Military Programs, Bodies, and Reports
 

Annual Energy Performance, Resilience, and Readiness Report (AEPPR): “Renamed from the Annual Energy Management and Resilience Report in the FY 2023 National Defense Authorization Act . . . [this report] is required to be submitted annually by the DoD to detail the Department’s energy consumption and performance toward achieving greater energy resilience for installations and warfighting platforms. The DoD must ensure mission readiness is supported with resilient, reliable, clean, and efficient installation and operational energy capabilities.”15

Army Compatible Use Buffer Program (ACUB): “A tool to protect an installation’s accessibility, availability, and capability for training, testing, and operations by sustaining natural habitats, open space, working lands, cultural resources and communities . . . [this is] part of the U.S. Army's effort to limit encroachment and maintain a balance among military training requirements, community desires, and environmental protection. Through ACUB, the Army reaches out to partners to identify mutual objectives of land conservation and to prevent development of critical open areas.”16

Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Process: “The congressionally authorized process [the] DoD has used to reorganize its base structure to more efficiently and effectively support [military] forces, increase operational readiness, and facilitate new ways of doing business.”17 “The BRAC process represents a legislative compromise between the executive and legislative branches wherein each shares power in managing the closure and realignment of military bases.”18

Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to U.S. National Security Through 2040: A U.S. National Intelligence Estimate document, produced in 2021, which suggests that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will be insufficient, for various reasons, to forestall climate change.19 This failure will itself increase geopolitical tensions “as countries argue about how to accelerate reductions” of emissions.20 In addition, climate change will, the report says, exacerbate cross-border flashpoints, and increase the potential for instability including in the Arctic and as countries fight over water and migration.21

Climate Security Roundtable (CSRT): “The Congressionally mandated National Academies Climate Security Roundtable is sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and provides federal officials with a platform for direct, sustained engagement with non-federal experts on a wide range of climate security issues. Through its meetings, workshops, and other activities, the CSRT convenes discussions that support the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) and the Federal science community in assessing, understanding, and anticipating climate-related risks to U.S. national security interests.”22

International Security Advisory Board (ISAB): “A Federal Advisory Committee that provides the Department of State with a continuing source of independent insight, advice, and innovation on all aspects of arms control, disarmament, nonproliferation, outer space, critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, the national security aspects of emerging technologies, international security, and related aspects of public diplomacy.”23

Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR): “A legislatively-mandated review of Department of Defense strategy and priorities. The QDR will set a long-term course for DOD as it assesses the threats and challenges that the nation faces and re-balances DOD's strategies, capabilities, and forces to address today's conflicts and tomorrow's threats.”24
 

Technical Terms, Data Sets, Indices, Methodologies, and Principles
 

Adaptation: Responding to climate change by altering behaviors or the natural or built environment. Examples include elevating piers or retreating from flood or fire prone areas.

Biofuel: “Fuel produced from plant or animal matter.”25

Bottom-up method: A research methodology utilizing an “extrapolation of measurements from a single facility or source to larger scales (e.g., regional, national, and global) to produce a bottom-up estimate [for greenhouse gas emissions].”26  “A bottom-up approach to quantification requires numerous data and assumptions about the number of vehicles involved in military operations and logistics, operating specifications of various types of vehicles, transportation distance and distance during operational movement of troops, supply chain structure, etc.”27 “Bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability” while top-down approaches use “climate projections and modelled impacts [to predict] specific intervals of future warming.”28

Carbon Sequestration: “The process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide. It is one method of reducing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere with the goal of reducing global climate change. [There are] two major types of carbon sequestration: geologic and biologic.”29

Carbon sink: Stores carbon for a long period. The oceans, forests, soil, and large animals which live a long time (such as whales) can function as natural carbon sinks.30

Climate-resilient development: A concept from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report that “combines strategies to adapt to climate change with actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to support sustainable development.”31

Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR–RC): “A principle within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that acknowledges the different capabilities and differing responsibilities of individual countries in addressing climate change.”32

Defense Climate Assessment Tool (DCAT): “A CAC-enabled, web-based collection of scientific climate data to support research, analysis, and decision making about exposure to historical extreme weather and reasonably foreseeable climate effects. The DCAT enables Military Departments and their installation personnel to deliver consistent exposure assessments and prioritize regions or installations for additional climate-related studies.”33

Emissions and Emissions Scopes: Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions are produced or controlled by an entity. Scope 2 emissions are from the purchase of energy for an entity. Scope 3 emissions are from the upstream activities that get energy or products to an entity, or are a consequence (downstream) of that entity’s activities. 

Environmental Colonialism: Greenwashing employed by countries from the global north to obscure environmental harms undertaken by those countries in the global south.34

Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ): “An area of the ocean, generally extending 200 nautical miles (230 miles) beyond a nation's territorial sea, within which a coastal nation has jurisdiction over both living and nonliving resources.”35

Geoengineering: “Intentional modifications of the Earth system, usually technological, to reduce future climate change.”36 “Geoengineering is conventionally split into two broad categories: The first is carbon geoengineering, often also called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The other is solar geoengineering, often also called solar radiation management (SRM).”37

Geothermal energy: “Heat that is generated within the Earth. It is a renewable resource that can be harvested for human use.”38

Global warming potential (GWP): “An index measuring the radiative forcing following an emission of a unit mass of a given substance, accumulated over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of the reference substance, carbon dioxide. The GWP thus represents the combined effect of the differing times these substances remain in the atmosphere and their effectiveness in causing radiative forcing.”39 Related term: Carbon dioxide equivalent.

Greenhouse gas (GHG): A gas that contributes to warming the climate. Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N20), and various fluorinated gases (e.g. Hydrofluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons, and Sulfur Hexafluoride).

Ground Renewable Expeditionary Energy System (GREENS): “A modular man-portable solar energy conversion and management system that harvests solar energy using photovoltaic solar panels.”40

Low-Emission Development Strategies (LEDS): Also known as low carbon development, the “forward-looking national economic development plans or strategies that encompass low-emission and/or climate-resilient economic growth.”41

Marine cloud brightening (MCB): A solar radiation modification technique, MCB “refers to an albedo modification technique that aims to increase the reflectivity, and possibly even the lifetimes, of certain clouds in order to reflect more sunlight back into space and partially offset some of the impacts of climate change. The most common proposal for achieving such a goal is to inject naturally occurring sea salt into cloud updrafts.”42

Mitigation: Reducing the amount of greenhouse gas that is released through human processes. Also includes protecting the processes and sinks that store carbon.

MMTCO2e: Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide equivalent.

Ocean Acidification: A process where the carbon dioxide that is absorbed by the oceans increases the acidity of the ocean.

Nord Stream Pipeline: “The twin pipeline system through the Baltic Sea runs from Vyborg, Russia to Lubmin near Greifswald, Germany.”43 In September 2022, explosions on three of the four non-operable pipelines released major quantities of natural gas into the Baltic Sea.

Particulate Matter: Small particles which are suspended for a time, in the atmosphere. The length of time they persist in the atmosphere depends on their size and other characteristics. The average time that a molecule resides in the atmosphere is its atmospheric lifetime.

Radiative forcing: “The change in the net (downward minus upward) radiative flux (expressed in watts per square meter) at the top of atmosphere [or troposphere] due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide.”44

Renewable energy: “Any form of energy that is replenished by natural processes at a rate that equals or exceeds its rate of use.”45

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM): “Also known as Solar Radiation Management, Radiation Modification Measures, or Solar Geoengineering, [SRM] would aim to address a symptom of climate change by reflecting more sunlight back into space, or by allowing more infrared radiation from Earth to escape, in order to reduce the Earth’s temperature. It includes numerous proposed methods which differ significantly. None are ready for deployment. Solar Radiation Modification could not be a substitute for reducing emissions or removing atmospheric CO2.”46

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): “The world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil established primarily to reduce the impact of disruptions in supplies of petroleum products and to carry out obligations of the U.S. under the international energy program . . . The sheer size of the SPR makes it a significant deterrent to oil import cutoffs and a key tool in foreign policy. SPR oil is sold competitively when the President finds, pursuant to the conditions set forth in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), that a sale is required.”47

Stratosphere: The highest part of the earth’s atmosphere, from between about 8 km to about 50 km.

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI): A solar radiation modification technique, SAI “aims to mimic the planet cooling effects of volcanic eruptions by injecting sulfur dioxide (SO2) directly into the stratosphere where it forms sunlight-reflecting sulfate aerosols.”48

Troposphere: Lowest part of the atmosphere to an altitude of about 10 km (though this varies with latitude and season), where most clouds and weather occur.

“Threat multiplier” logic: An assumption that “climate change effects interact with and have the potential to exacerbate pre-existing threats and other drivers of instability to contribute to security risks.”49

Endnotes