Cliff Lee Trades: Did Cleveland, Philadelphia, or Seattle See the Best Return?

Cliff Lee has been a part of four different blockbuster trades, three of which he was the centerpiece of. The Cleveland Indians shipped Lee to the Philadelphia Phillies at the 2009 trade deadline before Philly flipped him to Seattle the following offseason. Seattle then shipped him to Texas at the 2010 trade deadline.

In total, Lee was traded for 11 players over the course of a calendar year.

But one question remains: Which team—Cleveland, Seattle or Philadelphia—got the best deal?

Cleveland

The Indians shipped Lee to the Phillies—soon after moving another one of their Cy Young winners, CC Sabathia—for pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson.

The initial performances by the prospects were by no means outstanding.

Knapp failed to reach the big leagues due to injury and only recently attempted a comeback—with the Texas Rangers.

Donald fared a little better than Knapp, spending parts of three seasons with Cleveland. The utility infielder played 170 games for the Tribe and posted WAR numbers of 0.5, 1.0 and -0.2. Donald showed promise with a .318 batting average in 2011, but his average dropped to .202 in 2012. He was later shipped to Cincinnati as part of the Shin-Soo Choo trade that netted the Indians Matt Albers, Trevor Bauer, Bryan Shaw and Drew Stubbs.

Overall, Donald hit .257 in Cleveland and was good for a 1.3 WAR. He spent 2014 hitting a cumulative .234 for Kansas City and Texas’ Triple-A teams.

Marson fared even better, but, like Knapp and Donald, he failed to produce to the level that befits a group of prospects acquired for a Cy Young winner. The catcher initially started for Cleveland but soon conceded the position to Carlos Santana. Marson would serve as Santana’s backup until 2013 when he received a mere three at bats.

Marson has never been known for of his offense—.219 career batting average—but stuck in the big leagues thanks to solid advanced defensive statistics. But those defensive stats turned sour in 2012—his last full major league season—which may have contributed to Marson losing his roster spot. He never posted a WAR higher than 0.6. The catcher played seven games for the Reds' Double-A affiliate in 2014.

Carlos Carrasco was the fourth and final player acquired in the trade and, up until 2014, looked like the fourth failure.

The starting pitcher put up extremely unconvincing numbers from 2009 to 2013 with a 5.29 ERA in 49 appearances. Not only that, he gave up 10.6 hits per nine innings—a poor number for a player who started the game in 40 of his 49 appearances.   

While those years were a struggle for Carrasco, he rebounded in 2014 and finally gave the Indians some value in return for Lee. The starter served predominantly as a swing man last year, posting a sparkling 2.55 ERA in 40 appearances—14 of which were starts.

The 27-year-old looks to be a big part of Cleveland’s future, especially if he can continue to post the strikeout-to-walk numbers he showed in 2014—29 free passes compared to 140 punch outs.

Cleveland didn’t receive much for a former Cy Young winner. For a team that was rebuilding at the time, that wasn’t an encouraging sign. With the team now back in contention, Carrasco has the chance to be a contributing piece, but at the end of the day the Indians didn’t get anything close to what they should have received for Lee.

Philadelphia

Cliff Lee moved from Cleveland to Philadelphia for the aforementioned group of Knapp, Donald, Marson and Carrasco. The following offseason, the Phillies moved him to the Seattle Mariners for another package of prospects—including outfielder Tyson Gillies and pitchers J.C. Ramirez and Phillippe Aumont. If the foursome that the Indians received performed moderately, the three players the Phillies received have underperformed.

The only position player acquired in the deal, Tyson Gillies, has yet to make his major league debut. The 26-year-old only hit .217 in 106 Triple-A games over the past two seasons. In addition, Gillies struck out 44 times in 2014 compared to a measly six walks. He was cut by the team in June.

The outfielder’s stolen base numbers, once a hallmark of Gillies’ game, have suffered as well. The former Mariner farmhand swiped a mere three bags in 2014 after previously stealing 44 earlier in his career. After showing great promise early in his career, Gillies never panned out, a troubling trend for players dealt for Lee.

Ramirez reached the major leagues with the Phillies in 2013 but struggled immensely, posting a gargantuan 7.50 ERA in 18 appearances. What’s even more troubling is the fact that he allowed 30 hits and 22 runs in 24 innings. However, the most disturbing trend was his 5.6 walks per nine innings. That trend wasn’t specific to his major league struggles, as he allowed 4.9 walks per nine in AAA in 2013.

Ramirez found success in 2014 by posting a cumulative 3.05 ERA—but with Cleveland’s Double-A and Triple-A teams.

The last prospect acquired for Lee was Phillippe Aumont. The Canadian hurler was perhaps the most successful of the prospects dealt for Lee, with the exception of Carrasco.

Originally a starting pitcher, Aumont initially struggled and transitioned to the bullpen where he found success. He posted a respectable 3.97 ERA 34 innings from 2012 to 2013. His walk numbers were high during that span (5.8 walks per nine innings), but he was still able to get outs.

But like most of these prospects, Aumont hit a wall. His ERA ballooned to 19.06 in five appearances in 2014, and he spent most of the season in Triple-A—where he posted a 3.93 ERA that was only a percentage point away from his 3.94 career number at the minors’ highest level.

Seattle

After acquiring Lee from the Phillies to pair with Felix Hernandez atop the rotation, Seattle traded the elite starting pitcher to the Texas Rangers.

It’s not as if the Lee experiment didn’t pan out in Seattle—Lee went 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and a miniscule 0.5 walks per nine innings—it’s just that the Mariners were nowhere near contending and needed building blocks for the future. The M’s received star prospect Justin Smoak, second baseman Matt Lawson and pitchers Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke.

Smoak, the centerpiece of the deal, was tabbed as a tremendous power-hitting first baseman. However, he failed to live up to those high standards. Power wasn’t so much the issue as contact was for Smoak. The one-time Rangers wunderkind never topped a .234 batting average and posted over 100 strikeouts in each of his three seasons as a starter.

Tabbed by many to be the player to jump-start Seattle’s offense and fill the need for a middle-of-the-order bat, Smoak never panned out.

In addition to Smoak, the team also picked up second baseman Matt Lawson. Lawson’s stay in the Mariners’ organization was a short one—he was dealt to Cleveland for pitcher Aaron Laffey after just half a season. The second baseman posed a .319 batting average and a .815 OPS during his short stint in Double-A for the M’s.

The two pitchers brought over in the exchange have posted mixed results.

Beavan won 11 games in 2012 with a 4.43 ERA, but it went downhill after that. His number of appearances dwindled to 12 in 2013 (only two of them were starts), and his ERA skyrocketed to 6.13. Beavan was limited to a singular spot start in 2014 and has spent more time with the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers than the Mariners as of late.

With Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Roenis Elias, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker (not to mention Chris Young, should he be re-signed) seemingly entrenched as the M’s starters going forward, Beavan may have lost his chance to prove himself in the Emerald City. Allowing lefties to hit .306 off him doesn’t help either.

Like Lawson before him, pitcher Josh Lueke was dealt for veteran help at a position of need. The reliever posted a 6.06 ERA in 25 games for Seattle in his rookie season. Tampa Bay must have been encouraged by this as they acquired him from the Mariners for catcher John Jaso. Lueke hasn’t panned out in Tampa either, posting a 6.22 ERA over parts of three seasons.  

Verdict

It’s safe to say that Cliff Lee has a knack for being traded. Three teams tried to get maximum value for the ace, and they all failed. Miserably.

There are numerous ways to go about deciding a winner, but a simple way is to look at the collective WAR statistics for the players acquired for Lee who made it to the majors.

Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson’s collective WAR in Cleveland: 5.9.

Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez’ collective WAR in Philadelphia: -1.1.

Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak’s collective WAR in Seattle: 2.5.

The players the Indians received for Lee posted a collective WAR of 5.9. The caveat here is that the bulk of that number can be attributed to Carrasco’s breakout year in 2014. If you take out that year, the trio is only good for a 2.2 WAR.

Even worse, still, is the group the Phillies acquired. The two players that made it to the big leagues—Aumont and Ramirez—contributed a -1.1 WAR.

Rounding out the list is the Mariners. They received a total WAR of 2.5 out of Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak.

The Phillies may have eventually re-signed Lee in free agency, but they certainly didn’t receive the best for their ace via trade. The Mariners didn’t receive a great return either. The 2.5 WAR from their trio was extremely underwhelming when you consider that Smoak amassed nearly 2,000 plate appearances (1,943) in Seattle and Beavan made 44 starts.

At the end of the day, the team that started all the trading got the best return.

The Indians’ slightly more favorable WAR number is padded by Carrasco’s breakout season. However, his statistics combined with the thinking that Carrasco can continue to collect on his potential are the main reasons why the Cleveland Indians received the best package of players for Cliff Lee.

All stats courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com/ unless otherwise noted.