Ukraine’s ‘little green men’ carefully mask their identity

In eastern Ukraine, as in Crimea last month, they are nicknamed the “little green men” – the mysterious, camouflaged pro-Russian gunmen who for 10 days have been seizing local government buildings, police stations and town halls.

And as in Crimea, the same question is posed: are they Russian soldiers, or at least Russian-directed? Or are they, as Moscow claims, local “self defence” forces that have sprung up to resist the new government in Kiev?

The answer to that question is central to determining how Kiev responds to the threat these forces pose, and to whether – and by how much – the EU and US ratchet up sanctions against Russia.

Senior Ukrainian and western officials insist some of the armed men are Russians. Vitaly Yarema, Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister, said this week that Kiev had evidence that militants occupying the eastern towns of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk were “servicemen of the Russian 45th Airborne Regiment”.

Russia says some Russian citizens may be in eastern Ukraine, but categorically denies that Russian military forces are playing any role in the unrest.

The “separatists” do include at least some men previously in Crimea. Soldiers dressed in military fatigues but without insignia in Slovyansk told the Financial Times they had operated in the Black Sea peninsula then moved into eastern Ukraine several weeks ago – though they described themselves only as “Cossacks”.

But establishing direct Russian involvement with any certainty is more difficult than it was in Crimea. There, soldiers could be traced to particular Russian special forces units thanks to their equipment or, in one case, a name tag left accidentally on a flak jacket.

Forces in eastern Ukraine are more carefully masking their identity.

“In Crimea, we were seeing men in modern, matching Russian uniforms with modern Russian equipment, being driven around in Russian military vehicles with Russian military licence plates. We are not seeing that in eastern Ukraine,” said Matthew Clements, a senior analyst at IHS Jane’s, the security consultancy.

In eastern Ukraine, the gunmen’s kit, equipment and tactics are more varied. Rather than taking up positions around buildings, as in Crimea, gunmen have in several cases seized them, then handed over to local protesters and disappeared.

Keir Giles, director of the UK’s Conflict Studies Research Centre, a security consultancy, and an expert on Russia’s armed forces, said gunmen in eastern Ukraine were “trying hard to look a lot less well-trained and well-organised”.

“Also, there is greater overlap between the Russian special forces and the locals, they are working more as combined units,” he added. “But if you look at the equipment they are carrying around, even those who are trying to make themselves look a little disorganised, it is still the same people.”

Signs suggesting Russian involvement, say Ukrainian and foreign military experts, include the fact that many men are wearing Russian military-issue boots from Butex, a Russian manufacturer.

Some also carry advanced Russian arms, including RPG-30 anti-tank grenade launchers, not available in Ukraine.

Foreign analysts and officials have suggested some militants are using the newest Kalashnikov AK-100 assault rifles, which Ukraine also does not have. But some armed men told the FT their weapons were older AK-74s.

“The modern kit these people are carrying, which has only just entered service in the Russian armed forces – I really can’t see them handing [this] out to any of the local levies they are gathering,” said Mr Giles. “These folks have to come from Russia, no doubt about it.”

An eastern European military official in Moscow said it could not be conclusively proven from photos and video footage that Russian special forces were operating in eastern Ukraine.

“However, there is no doubt there are Russians on the ground in less visible positions who are providing training and support, and have been doing so for a relatively long time – months at least,” the official said.

Without providing detailed evidence, Ukraine’s SBU security service has said it has “valid proof”, including communications intercepts, of Russian special forces on Ukrainian territory. It alleged that officers of Russia’s GRU military intelligence, based in Donetsk and Lugansk in the east, were providing “financial, material and technical support”.

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The SBU also claimed military intelligence officials were directing militants within Ukraine from Russia using “special communications equipment”.

It named one GRU officer, Igor Strelkov, as allegedly having supervised militant groups in Slavyansk, and said he previously worked as a security assistant to Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-installed prime minister of Crimea. Senior Russian officials rejected such allegations as “absurd”.

Although again providing no direct evidence, Vitaly Nayda, head of counter intelligence at the SBU, warned during a televised briefing that communications intercepts suggested Russian special forces were aiming to “spill blood” as a pretext for Russian forces across the border to invade.

“We have documented conversations which bear witness to plans to kill 100 to 200, an hour and a half after which Russian army tanks and armoured personnel carriers will appear on Ukrainian territory,” he said.