Full Episode: Washington Week with The Atlantic full episode, 5/10/24

Jeffrey Goldberg: Joe Biden drops the hammer on Israel. Marjorie Taylor Greene tries and fails to drop the hammer on the speaker of the House, and in New York, a very strange trial of an ex-president. In fact, it's been a strange week across politics. We'll discuss all of it next.

Good evening and welcome to Washington Week. An ex and possibly future president on trial in a porn star hush money case, a governor who shot her dog, a presidential candidate claiming that a worm ate part of his brain, and a QAnon adherent who believes that she should be in charge of the Republican Party. These are tonight's Jeopardy categories.

Join me in welcoming our contestants, Peter Baker, the Chief White House correspondent at The New York Times, Jonathan Karl is the Chief Washington correspondent for ABC News, Elaina Platt Calabro covers national politics for The Atlantic, and Vivian Salama is a national politics reporter with The Wall Street Journal.

Welcome to Washington Week quiz show, weird categories. Let's start with something very serious though before we get to some of the oddness of this week's politics, the war in the Middle East and Joe Biden.

Peter, is this a permanent rupture that we're looking at between the Biden administration and the Israeli government?

Peter Baker, Chief White House Correspondent, The New York Times: Well, we'll see. I mean, look, Jeff, you know, is better than I do, and anybody does in the history of U.S.-Israeli relations is often marked by moments of rupture and tension. This is certainly one of the most extreme versions we've seen in a number of years.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Probably since the 80s.

Peter Baker: Probably since the 80s, exactly. Of course, Reagan did of course hold back weapons and George H.W. Bush held back loan guarantees and so forth. But it depends. It really depends on what Bibi Netanyahu and the war cabinet do in Rafah. If they end up going into Rafah and Biden then feels compelled to hold off offensive weapons, that is a pretty big moment. At the moment, it's just one shipment of one set of bombs. It's more symbolic.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Symbolic shot across --

Peter Baker:  Exactly, he's making a point. And the question is, does Bibi Netanyahu get that point.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Vivian, what does this mean for the war effort? I mean, I'm curious about the war effort and also Biden's political positioning in all of this.

Vivian Salama, National Politics Reporter, The Wall Street Journal: So, the likely impact in the short term is probably minimal. Israel does have stockpiles that it will be able to defend itself and to also conduct its attack, its offensive.

Jeffrey Goldberg: But, notably, America is not holding back on defensive weaponry, anti-rocket.

Vivian Salama: Well, that's just it. President Biden, even with his comments this week, made it very clear that, you know, with regard to the Iron Dome that is so critical to Israel's defense, he is not going to touch that. He's very specific about certain types of bombs and artillery. That's what he's looking to hold back on. And Bibi Netanyahu sort of shot back and assured the public in Israel that they have enough, that they can still continue their offensive and kind of carry out this war to eliminate Hamas.

But it is still significant regardless of that. President Biden has come under significant political headwinds over this decision to sort of tap dance around the question of aid to Israel. He has gradually come around to say, okay, we're going to review it, we're going to consider withholding. But he's always added that caveat of, you know, we'll still give them what they need to defend themselves.

Jeffrey Goldberg: There's this new report from the State Department looking at possible violations of international law on the part of Israel. Does that give Biden some top cover here to keep pressuring Netanyahu?

Vivian Salama: For sure. And so the State Department report, which, by the way, was several days late because you could see that there was a lot of internal wrangling.

They said that there's reasonable evidence of possible violations of international law in Israel.

There's a lot of caveats in the report already. They even said that they didn't have -- because they don't have access because of wartime conditions, they could not really thoroughly assess the situation. But they are still raising that possibility, which, by the way, will irritate the Israeli government, without question.

And so it is still significant just in terms of taking that step. But, of course, Biden's critics say it's too little, too late.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Jon, I was talking to some folks on the Pentagon who are worried that these moves by Biden to distance himself from Netanyahu are actually going to make negotiating a ceasefire more difficult because the pressure on Hamas to release hostages, Israeli hostages, has gone down. Do you have any sense of where this is going to take the war effort?

Jonathan Karl, Chief Washington Correspondent, ABC News: Well, and it seems like that deal is, is falling apart. I think that's -- you know, again, the, the actual bombs themselves, we're basically talking about 2,000-pound bombs, that's the main thing holding back, Israel has got a stockpile. That's probably not necessarily what's going to be significant in a Rafah invasion. I mean, they are what you take tunnels out with.

I think that one of the big challenges for Israel in all of this is a breakdown in the bipartisan consensus in the United States of U.S. support for Israel. I mean, look at how Republicans reacted to Biden's latest move. I mean, they're going to launch another round of impeachment proceedings.

And when, you know, Biden -- I mean the idea that he was going to hold back some of these weapons had been out there, had been kind of leaked. then he talked about it in the CNN interview, but there was no notification whatsoever to anybody in Congress, including Speaker Johnson, who had just laid his entire political position on the line to support what aid for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan.

You know, it seems like a little bit of a heads up to the speaker of the House that you need on something like this might have been worthwhile.

Jeffrey Goldberg: One more quick question on this. Is this going to hurt Biden with traditional Jewish support for Democrats? I mean, how does this play out within the party?

Peter Baker: What Biden is proving is that governing from the middle stinks, right? It's a terrible place to be. He's not made any friends on the left, which is still mad at him, doesn't think this is nearly enough, hasn't gone far enough. And now he's alienated the people who admired --

Jeffrey Goldberg: This is in Michigan, Arab-American voters back to --

Peter Baker: And Jewish supporters who admired his support for Israel now feel abandoned or angry and so forth. So, he's managed to alienate a lot of people.

The real answer to him politically is he has to get the war finished, so that by the fall, people are thinking about other things.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Let me turn to another intractable conflict, that between Marjorie Taylor Greene and Speaker Johnson, referred to briefly here. Before we talk about it, let's just watch a little bit of the action, the drama this week.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA): The form of the resolution is as follows, declaring the office of speaker of the House of Representatives to be vacant.

Speaker Johnson's tenure is defined by one self-serving characteristic. When given a choice between advancing Republican priorities or allying with the Democrats to preserve his own personal power. Johnson regularly chooses to ally himself with Democrats.

Jeffrey Goldberg: So, Elaina, you have profiled both Greene and Johnson recently. Is this the week that Johnson has vanquished his foe? Because this didn't go anywhere, you heard the booing. That was a lot of Republicans booing.

Elaina Plott Calabro, Staff Writer, The Atlantic: Right. But the way I think. You have to conceptualize it is it's her colleagues booing her. But what Donald Trump was pushing out on Truth Social as soon as the vote was commencing essentially was, I don't agree with the effort to vacate Mike Johnson right now. However, Marjorie Taylor Greene is a star. She will be in this party for a very, very long time. And while I don't think it's the right time now to vacate Mike Johnson, we may be open to it in the future. So, leaving that door open I think is pretty critical.

Jeffrey Goldberg: So she was constructing the guillotine in a kind of way and just leaving it there?

Elaina Plott Calabro: Essentially.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Yes. So, it's over.

Elaina Plott Calabro: Because they were tabling the motion. That was what the vote was for.

Jeffrey Goldberg: So it's not over.

Jonathan Karl: And, by the way, she was making a series of demands before this. I mean, she had this idea long negotiations with Johnson over whether or not to go forward. And one of the demands that she made was to defund the special counsel, defund the office of special counsel. Where does that come from? That's Trump. That's all Trump.

And Johnson has now given an interview with Politico with Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade saying -- Johnson saying, no, we can't do that. It's not really something that's plausible. That is not going to go over well in Mar-a-Lago.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Elaina, let me come back to you. And this is from your recent profile of Mike Johnson. You wrote, it is true that after six years and ten months in Congress, Mike Johnson had no enemies. It is also true that in his six years and ten months in Congress, he had never been in a position, really, to make them.

I mean, he's kind of his career this year has been kind of a miracle, right? I mean, this guy comes from literally nowhere and he somehow held on to the speakership in a way that Kevin McCarthy just couldn't seem to hold on. Is he damaging his brand long-term with the -- even the people who were booing Marjorie Taylor Greene, is he damaging them by -- is he damaging that reputation by being too conciliatory toward the Democrats?

Elaina Plott Calabro: I mean, well, we have to think of in what ways has he been conciliatory toward the Democrats. And the major thing is he has worked with them to keep the government open. You know, there was a time when wanting to keep the government open was not an especially controversial thing. But that was sort of the seed for the coup against Kevin McCarthy. And Mike Johnson was working with essentially those same top line spending numbers when he had to work with Democrats to keep the government open.

So now that they have filed appropriations bills and have a little bit of a leeway, a lot will depend on what he does between now and the election if Marjorie Taylor Greene's intense criticism of him picks up speed among a broader swath of the caucus.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Can anyone at this table explain to me, and I guess we're guilty of this or I'm guilty of this, can we explain why we're talking about such a marginal figure as Marjorie Taylor Greene all the time?

Peter Baker: Well, the short answer is Kevin McCarthy. Because Kevin McCarthy gave her the weapon to do what she did because he, as part of his agreement to get the speakership, said any individual member can file a motion to vacate. We only need one person to do it. So, one person, no matter how fringe, can get out there and cause all kinds of chaos.

Vivian Salama: U.S. people on the Hill who are not supporters of Marjorie Taylor Greene, they'll also kind of point to the media and say, you know, you give her the airtime, you give her the attention that she is seeking, and it's partly that she wanted to elevate her status, according to so many people in the party who just don't really are not on board with what she's trying to do. But, ultimately, it boils down to what Peter just said. It's one person. Single seat majority right, and that's it.

Elaina Plott Calabro: That's what mainstream Republicans, as they were filing out of the Capitol after this failed vote and reporters rushed to Marjorie Taylor Greene, one member was over there on the steps essentially saying why are you guys, you know, elevating her in this way? Come talk to us.

Jonathan Karl: Yes, I'm for not elevating anymore. She spent more than an hour at that press conference on the steps.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Okay, we're not elevating. No more elevating.

Jonathan Karl: Yes.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Let's change the subject to brain worms. No, no, no, no, I'm sorry. Before we get to brain worms, let's talk about shooting dogs. Yes, actually, I'm going to frame this in a more high minded way. Let's talk about the vice presidential sweepstakes. You know, Trump has to pick a running mate and Kristi Noem was in the running here. Is she finished in politics?

Jonathan Karl: I think she's done.

Jeffrey Goldberg: You think she's done?

Jonathan Karl: Yes. I was just in South Dakota this week, and --

Jeffrey Goldberg: Stop bragging all the time. Go on. Yes. I'm a national political reporter.

Jonathan Karl: I mean, even people you think might be inclined to support her were a little horrified by the whole display.

Jeffrey Goldberg: I want to show you one thing. This is from her -- it's not an apology towards something else entirely, but I want you to watch this just for one minute.

Unidentified Female: Did Mike Pence do the right thing or the wrong thing on January 6th?

Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD): I don't talk in hypotheticals. The law has changed. That situation will never happen again because the law has been changed, so I don't answer hypothetical questions.

Unidentified Female:  It's not a hypothetical. I'm just asking you --

Kristi Noem: It is, because it'll never happen again.

Unidentified Female:  No, but what he did that day.

Kristi Noem: You know, looking back that day, I wasn't in the situation. I wasn't, didn't have the information he had. You know, I just think that Mike Pence today is making the wrong decision by not endorsing President Trump.

Jeffrey Goldberg: I found this interesting because of the debate over what constitutes a hypothetical, but I also found it interesting because her answer on Pence is well within the mainstream of anyone who's considering themselves to be a serious candidate for the vice president.

Jonathan Karl: By the way, I asked that exact same question, slightly different worded of Tom Cotton over the weekend.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Yes.

Jonathan Karl: And he actually gave me an answer, which is that it was not constitutional, which means Tom Cotton, you can take him off your list of potential Trump running mate.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Is that really -- are you dead serious about that?

Peter Baker: Yes. That's the one most important qualification, right? He has to pick somebody who will do what Mike Pence wouldn't do. Mike Pence --

Jeffrey Goldberg: Well, the law has been changed. So, it's --

Peter Baker: I know. But the point is, are you loyal enough to do what I want you to do? And he found that Mike Pence, as loyal as he was for three years, 360 days, or whatever it was, and then at the last moment says, no, sorry, there's a line beyond which I cannot cross.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Why did Cotton say it?

Jonathan Karl: Oh, well, I think -- I mean -- yes, I mean, it's pretty outrageous, the idea that one human being can determine the outcome of a presidential, and even the Tom Cotton will defend Trump on a lot of things, not on that. And Tom Cotton has also not been out there aggressively saying that the election was stolen through rigged voting machines, et cetera.

But, look, Trump has a very clear test for this. And it's not just what Pence did but the more important thing is do you agree with him that the election was stolen in 2020? And will you and make it clear that you will only accept one result in 2024, and that's a Trump victory?

Vivian Salama: And someone who's really a contender for the vice pre to be Trump's running mate, Senator Tim Scott of North Carolina said, you know -- South Carolina, sorry, yes, South Carolina. I'm from New York, so sometimes the Carolinas merge in my head. So --

Jeffrey Goldberg: We love both of them here in Washington.

Vivian Salama: Yes, we do love both. So, he was also on the Sunday shows last week and refused to answer the question. And that is something that, of course, over and over again.

Jeffrey Goldberg: So, Elaina, you cover a lot of these potential candidates. Who are you imagining is in the front ranks right now? Let me go --

Elaina Plott Calabro: I'm going to say J.D. Vance. I mean, that over the past three months has been the name I've heard most consistently because it's not just Trump sort of entertaining it. People around him really want it to be J.D. Vance.

Jeffrey Goldberg: What is it about J.D. Vance that is so attractive to Trump?

Elaina Plott Calabro: They believe he's a fighter, true believer. Like, you know, I don't know how to say it more bluntly or plainly than that.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right.

Jonathan Karl: I would add Doug Burgum to that list --

Jeffrey Goldberg: The governor of --

Jonathan Karl: -- of North Dakota.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Not South Dakota, North Dakota.

Jonathan Karl: North Dakota has a lot of money. Trump likes him. He's tall, but he's not too tall. I mean, it's kind of fits the part for Trump. And he's never -- unlike Vance, he's actually never said a word that I can find critical of Donald Trump.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right, because Vance used to be. I mean, famously in The Atlantic, he wrote a piece condemning Donald Trump years ago.

Elaina Plott Calabro: But I also say Vance on Ukraine aid and his opposition to it has been just absolutely resolute on that. So, I think Donald Trump Jr. in particular and his team --

Jonathan Karl: That's with his opposition to Ukraine aid.

Elaina Plott Calabro: Absolutely.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Okay. So, we've come to the conclusion in Washington that shooting a dog can really damage your chances of national office. What about confessing that a worm ate part of your brain? Is this going to affect -- this is actually a serious question. I can't believe I'm asking it. Is this actually going to affect Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s popularity with the people who are maybe predisposed to vote for him?

Jonathan Karl: Look, I don't know that it's going to have a --

Elaina Plott Calabro: I think no.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Really?

Elaina Plott Calabro: I think no.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Okay.

Jonathan Karl: I mean, look, he's on the ballot. He claims Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada -- you know, he's not going to be on the ballot nationwide, but he's going to be on the ballot in enough states where he can actually swing the election.

Elaina Plott Calabro: Also, he's already double downing. Like he's already saying things like, you know, I could have four more worms eat my brain, basically, and I'd still be able to outdo Biden and Trump on the debate stage.

Vivian Salama: Plus, why is he polling on, like, double digits at this point, which is unprecedented, by the way. There are two factors. A, the lack of enthusiasm for the other two candidates.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Which is enormous.

Vivian Salama: Which is propelling a lot of people to kind of say, heck, we'll go for a third party candidate. And then, B, he's also got name recognition because of the family. And so there's a lot of that --

Jonathan Karl: I mean, it's interesting, I know Democrats have been freaked out about Bobby Kennedy for a long time as a third party candidate, but it's Trump that is really losing his mind over the idea that Kennedy is out there potentially taking votes away from him.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Well, wait, let's, let's pressure test this. Is it Trump who is hurt by Bobby Kennedy? And I suppose it depends on the swing state in question, or is it Biden?

Peter Baker: I mean, it depends. There was one poll, just the swing state, showing that Biden's lead actually narrowed because of Bobby Kennedy, when you add it into the mix. So, it really does seem to be state --

Jeffrey Goldberg: There was a Wisconsin poll, I think.

Peter Baker: I think it was Wisconsin. And I think that the two other things I would say, one, it may not hurt him in the sense of the people who want to vote for him, but on the other hand, it's not good to be mocked on Saturday Night Live and places like that for something like this, which will come up again and again and again.

And the second thing is it reminds us how little people really know about him. And the more they learn about him, it adds up at some point.

Jonathan Karl: But he's not a candidate that's going to be elected president. We're talking at the margins, and his support is at a pretty hard --

Peter Baker: Remember when Ross Perot ran, his polling was in the 30 percent. At one point, he actually led the race. And it fell to 19 percent at Election Day, because in the end people said, okay, there's a protest vote, but do I really want to go there? And in the end, a lot of people who say now they want to vote for Bobby Kennedy may have said, okay, fine, but when push comes to shove, I really do have to make a choice.

Jonathan Karl: When it comes down to it, is it the name or is it the political positions he's taken? You know, Steve Bannon had told me over and over again, over the course of last year, that the best V.P. choice for Donald Trump is was Bobby Kennedy Jr.

Peter Baker: Bannon knows things.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Bannon (INAUDIBLE), interesting.

Jonathan Karl: Which is why, I think you saw it just yesterday, Trump put out this long video, ranting and raving about Bobby Kennedy, saying, by the way, he's not really anti-vax, as this was --

Jeffrey Goldberg: Yes.

Jonathan Karl: But, you know, he does touch that Trump world, especially on that issue.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right.

Vivian Salama: But back to the issue of enthusiasm though, I mean, we're talking about voter turnout here, which, you know, is at risk of being quite low because of that lack of enthusiasm for the two frontrunner candidates for the two major parties. And on top of that, you have protest votes, where it's not just Robert Kennedy Jr., it's also Cornell West and Jill Stein who could chip away at Biden.

Jeffrey Goldberg: They're not nearly as popular, but 10,000, 20,000 extra votes.

Vivian Salama: There are a lot of progressives right now who are looking for an alternative as well. And so it's really going to boil down to how many votes they lose.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Based on your reporting, what are they thinking inside the Biden campaign about the Kennedy threat? Taking it seriously?

Vivian Salama: They are taking it seriously, but I guarantee the Trump people are taking it a lot more seriously. And that's why you have seen former President Trump lash out in recent weeks, is because he is seeing that it could really hurt him.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Right, let's turn to Trump and the trial. Elaina, the, the news this week, apart from the news from the courtroom in New York, which is strange enough, obviously, and discomforting enough, the news is that it seems unlikely that Trump is going to be facing additional trials after all of our endless conversation in the fall over, oh, it's going to be an entire year of trials.

This is good for Trump. I have to assume that you agree, but tell me if you don't.

Elaina Plott Calabro: No, I completely agree. I would say first that it, if there was any degree to which these trials were going to chip away at support from his base or kind of move people in any manner, I think it would be reflected in polls at this point. We haven't seen that necessarily.

But the fact that this will be prolonged, I mean, it's opening up, you know, people like Speaker Mike Johnson to questions of, should a president in office be open to an indictment? And now you're having a lot of Republicans have to answer that question. And Johnson said, no, I think it's common sense that a president should get to operate unafraid that some reckless D.A. out there is going to try to come at him with charges.

Jeffrey Goldberg: The reason I ask whether -- I mean, it seems obvious that not being on trial in an ordinary political circumstance is better than being on trial, but for Trump's base, this was not hurting the guy, and now he's going to be back out on the on the road. That's a good thing.

Elaina Plott Calabro: But galvanizing.

Jeffrey Goldberg: But the victim complex was energizing some of his --

Peter Baker: What does it tell us that we're -- our conversation is about brain-eating worms, shooting your dog and whether a trial with a porn star is a good or bad thing for a presidential candidate, it's extraordinary how much politics have been warped in the Trump era. And the idea that another trial could be anything other than bad for a candidate seems, you know, counterintuitive, and yet, who knows, right?

I think they're done for the year after this one is over. The question is whether a conviction makes a difference. That's the only thing --

Jeffrey Goldberg: Answer that question, conviction, any impact?

Jonathan Karl: The poll suggests that there are about up to 20 percent of Republicans who would at least have second thoughts about voting for somebody that was a convicted felon. But I don't know if I believe it until you actually see it and then they -- I mean, I'm not sure it has much of an impact. I will say, though, I think there is a real possibility. I think you could argue that the lack of criminal trials over the rest of this campaign season is actually bad for Trump because this gave his campaign a unifying message. This was the campaign of retribution. He was up against the big, awful, deep state that was coming after him because they really wanted his supporters. But, you know, now he has to tell us what he's going to do if he's president.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right. Vivian, you're covering this campaign, last word to you on this. Tell us about how getting out of these trials is going to shape his mood and shape the message.

Vivian Salama: Well, it's like Peter was saying, he definitely has galvanized on this. He is using this as a political tool, a campaigning tool. And we're going to hear it from him at length in terms of the persecution. I mean, he's been using almost messianic Christian terms to explain what's happening to him in terms of the persecution that's happening to him. He's advocating for Christian day of visibility to kind of bolster the support among the sort of white evangelical base that he's so popular with. And we're going to see a lot more of that.

Now, campaign officials tell me he is a little bit worried about what the outcome of this is going to be, but, overall, you know, last week at the Republican national committee donor conference, they were all like, you know, he's pulling great. So, everything is fine.

Jeffrey Goldberg: To be continued maybe next week without worms with any -- well, the dog was implied. Unfortunately, we're not going to talk about the dog. We're going to need to leave it there for now. But I want to thank our panelists for joining us.

You can find more of Elaina Plott's reporting about speaker Johnson at theatlantic.com.

I'm Jeffrey Goldberg. Good night from Washington.