Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie) — Andrew Garfield Takes the Lead, but Richard Gadd and Jon Hamm Close Behind
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated: May 22, 2024): More to come.
Emmy submissions are due Thursday, May 9. The eligibility deadline for all series concluding their runs is May 31. The nominations-voting-round is open from June 13 to June 24.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Image Credit: Courtesy of Michelle Faye/FX And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer and Series 1 Andrew Scott — “Ripley” (Netflix) 2 Richard Gadd — “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) 3 Jon Hamm — “Fargo” 4 Jeff Daniels — “A Man in Full” (Netflix) 5 Matt Bomer — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime) 6 Tony Shalhoub — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Image Credit: Lauren Smith/Paramount+ Next in Line
Rank Series 7 Tom Hollander — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX) 8 David Oyelowo — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+) 9 Ewan McGregor — “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+) 10 Hoa Xuande — “The Sympathizer” (Max) Outstanding Lead Actor in Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Also In Contention
Rank Series 11 Nicholas Galitzine — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) 12 Nicholas Galitzine — “Mary & George” (Starz) 13 Taylor Zakhar Perez — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) 14 Michael Douglas — “Franklin” (Apple TV+) 15 Austin Butler — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+) 16 Clive Owen — “Monsieur Spade” (AMC) 17 Benedict Cumberbatch — “Eric” (Netflix) 18 Bill Pullman — “Murdaugh Murders: The Movie – Parts 1 and 2” (Lifetime) 19 Kiefer Sutherland — “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+) 20 Leo Woodall — “One Day” (Netflix) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Eligible Performances (Lead Actor, Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple TV+ **The list below is not complete and have been confirmed as officially submitted. All information is subject to change. Grouped by network that airs each series.
- Clive Owen — “Monsieur Spade” (AMC)
- Tom Holland — “The Crowded Room” (Apple TV+)
- Michael Douglas — “Franklin” (Apple TV+)
- Tobias Menzies — “Manhunt” (Apple TV+)
- Austin Butler — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Callum Turner — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Jason Isaacs — “Archie” (BritBox)
- Samuel L. Jackson — “Secret Invasion” (Disney+)
- Matt Czuchry — “American Horror Story: Delicate” (FX)
- Brian Tyree Henry — “Class of ’09” (FX)
- Jon Hamm — “Fargo” (FX)
- Tom Hollander — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
- Robert Carlyle — “The Full Monty” (FX)
- Mandy Patinkin — “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
- Josh Charles — “The Veil” (Hulu)
- Logan Lerman — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
- Bill Pullman — “Murdaugh Murders: The Movie – Parts 1 and 2” (Lifetime)
- The Weeknd — “The Idol” (Max)
- Matthias Schoenaerts — “The Regime” (Max)
- Hoa Xuande — “The Sympathizer” (Max)
- Kelvin Harrison Jr. — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)
- Aaron Pierre — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)
- Louis Hofmann — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)
- Richard Gadd — “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
- Paapa Essiedu — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
- Aaron Paul — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
- Felix Cameron — “Boy Swallows Universe” (Netflix)
- Benedict Cumberbatch — “Eric” (Netflix)
- Bruce Greenwood — “Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)
- Leo Woodall — “One Day” (Netflix)
- Matthew Broderick — “Painkiller” (Netflix)
- Andrew Scott — “Ripley” (Netflix)
- Kiefer Sutherland — “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
- Ben Foster — “Finestkind” (Paramount+)
- Ewan McGregor — “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+)
- David Oyelowo — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
- Domhnall Gleeson — “Alice & Jack” (PBS)
- Sam Neill — “Apples Never Fall” (Peacock)
- Colin Woodell — “The Continental: From the World of John Wick” (Peacock)
- Édgar Ramírez — “Dr. Death” (Peacock)
- Paapa Essiedu — “Genie” (Peacock)
- Tony Shalhoub — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)
- Jonah Hauer-King — “The Tattooist of Auschwitz” (Peacock)
- Rudy Mancuso — “Música” (Prime Video)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
- Taylor Zakhar Perez — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
- John Cena — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)
- Zac Efron — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)
- David Oyelowo — “Role Play” (Prime Video)
- Snoop Dogg — “The UnderDoggs” (Prime Video)
- Matt Bomer — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “Mary & George” (Starz)
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More Information (Lead Actor, Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Hopper Stone/SMPSP 2023 category winner: Steven Yeun as Danny Cho — “Beef” (Netflix)
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs that identify as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Awards Predictions
Drama Comedy Limited/Movie Drama Series Comedy Series Limited or Anthology Series Lead Actor (Drama) Lead Actor (Comedy) Lead Actor (Limited, Movie) Lead Actress (Drama) Lead Actress (Comedy) Lead Actress (Limited, Movie) Supporting Actor (Drama) Supporting Actor (Comedy) Supporting Actor (Limited, Movie) Supporting Actress (Drama) Supporting Actress (Comedy) Supporting Actress (Limited, Movie) Directing (Drama) Directing (Comedy) Directing (Limited, Movie) Writing (Drama) Writing (Comedy) Writing (Limited, Movie) Guest Actor (Drama) Guest Actor (Comedy) Television Movie Guest Actress (Drama) Guest Actress (Comedy) Casting (Limited, Movie) Casting (Drama) Casting (Comedy) Other Awards Predictions
Talk Series Reality Competition Program Animated Program Scripted Variety Game Show Character Voice-Over Performance Variety Special (Live) Host for a Reality or Competition Program Narrator Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) Structured Reality Documentary (Series) Directing (Series, Special) Unstructured Reality Documentary (Special) Writing (Series, Special) Directing (Reality Program) Hosted Nonfiction (Series or Special) Music (Limited, Movie, Special, Series, Documentary, Direction, Theme Music, Lyrics, Supervision) Main Title Design Writing (Nonfiction) Short Form Series Short Form (Actor/Actress) Exceptional Merit About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship, and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy, which hosts the Emmys, consists of over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.